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In a study published in The New England Journal of Medicine, researchers investigated the effectiveness of the drug pembrolizamab on increasing survival rates in patients with advanced melanoma (Eggermont et al. 2018). In this randomized double-blind study, 514 patients received the drug and 505 patients received a placebo. Recurrence-free survival rates for both groups were measured after 15 months. After 15 months, 388 patients in the drug group and 308 patients in the placebo group experienced recurrence-free survival. a. Find and compare the percentages that experienced recurrence-free survival. b. Test the hypothesis that a greater proportion of patients taking the drug experienced recurrence-free survival than those taking the placebo. Use a significance level of \(0.05\). c. Based on this study, do you think the drug pembrolizamab may be effective in treating patients with advanced melanoma? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) First calculate the percentages of recurrence-free survival then compare. b) For the hypothesis test, formulate the null and alternate hypotheses, execute a one-sided Z-test, and make a decision based on the p-value relative to 0.05. c) The decision on the drug's effectiveness is based on the outcome of the hypothesis test and the calculated percentages.

Step by step solution

01

- Calculation of Percentage

The percentage of patients surviving without recurrence after taking the drug can be calculated using the formula: \((\text{Number of successes} / \text{total number in the group}) \times 100\%\). Similarly, calculate the percentage for the placebo group.
02

- Set Up Hypothesis

Formulate the null hypothesis (H0) and alternative hypothesis (Ha). H0: The percentages are equal. Ha: The percentage of patients surviving without recurrence after taking the drug is higher than that of those taking the placebo.
03

- Perform Hypothesis Testing

Using a significance level of \(0.05\), perform a one-tailed Z test for comparing two proportions. The Z score can be used to find the p-value. If the p-value is less than the alpha level, then reject the null hypothesis.
04

- Interpretation

If the null hypothesis was rejected, it can be concluded that a significantly higher proportion of patients taking the drug experienced recurrence-free survival than those taking the placebo. If it wasn't rejected, the drug and the placebo have similar effects.
05

- Addressing the Final Part

The answer to the last part of the question will depend on the previous step. If the drug has a higher proportion of patients surviving without recurrence, the drug may be effective, but further evidence would be needed for a conclusive decision.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Biostatistics
Biostatistics is a branch of statistics that applies statistical methods to biological and health sciences. It involves designing studies and analyzing data from experiments, clinical trials, and other forms of research. Biostatisticians help answer critical questions in medical and health research through statistical analysis.

In our exercise, biostatistics is applied to compare recurrence-free survival rates between two groups: patients receiving a drug and those receiving a placebo. By systematically recording and analyzing these rates, researchers can draw conclusions about the drug's effectiveness. This approach ensures that findings are not due to chance but are statistically backed.

• **Design of Study**: Randomized, double-blind trials are used to increase reliability. This design minimizes the bias, allowing for objective comparison.
• **Data Analysis**: Biostatisticians use tools like hypothesis testing and confidence intervals to interpret study results, thus assessing the effect size and relevance of the findings.
Proportions
Proportions in statistics refer to the fraction of the whole or percentage of a given set that exhibits a particular characteristic. In the study described, proportions are used to compare the percentage of patients experiencing recurrence-free survival between the drug and placebo groups.

The basic formula to calculate a proportion is \[\text{Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of successes}}{\text{Total number in the group}} \]To express it as a percentage, simply multiply by 100.

In the exercise, we computed two proportions:
  • Proportion of recurrence-free survival in the drug group: \(\frac{388}{514} \times 100\%\)
  • Proportion of recurrence-free survival in the placebo group: \(\frac{308}{505} \times 100\%\)
Understanding proportions allows researchers to determine whether the drug provides a better outcome compared to the placebo. Proportions help to easily communicate the effectiveness of the treatments in percentages, which are more intuitive.
Significance Level
Significance level, represented by \(\alpha\), is a threshold set by researchers to determine the cutoff for rejecting the null hypothesis in hypothesis testing. It quantifies the risk of concluding that there is an effect when there is none—a Type I error.

A commonly used significance level is 0.05. In the context of our study, after performing a hypothesis test comparing survival proportions, this level will guide whether the observed difference is statistically significant.

• **Null Hypothesis (H0)**: Assumes no difference in recurrence-free survival between the two groups. Researchers aim to reject this hypothesis to support the alternative.
• **Alternative Hypothesis (Ha)**: Proposes that the drug group actually has a higher proportion of recurrence-free survivors.
• **Decision Rule**: If the p-value from the test is less than 0.05, it suggests the observed data would be unusual under the null hypothesis, leading to its rejection.

Understanding the concept of significance levels helps interpret research findings correctly. It adds rigor to the study, ensuring that conclusions drawn are valid within the established statistical framework.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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