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91Ó°ÊÓ

Number of Children A random sample of 100 women from the General Social Survey showed that the mean number of children reported was \(1.85\) with a standard deviation of 1.5. (Interestingly, a sample of 100 men showed a mean of 1\. 49 children.) a. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean number of children for women. Because the sample size is so large, you can use \(1.96\) for the critical value of \(t\) (which is the same as the critical value of \(z\) ) if you do the calculations manually. b. Find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval. Use \(1.645\) for the critical value of \(t\), which is the critical value of \(z\) c. Which interval is wider, and why?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval for the population mean number of children for women is \(1.56, 2.14\). The 90% confidence interval is \(1.60325, 2.09675\). The 95% confidence interval is wider than the 90% interval due to the higher level of confidence, which requires more possible values for the population mean.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Confidence Interval

A confidence interval estimates the range that likely contains a population parameter. In our case, the parameter is the population mean number of children per woman. A 95% confidence interval implies that if we were to take 100 different samples and calculate the confidence interval for each, 95 of those intervals would contain the true population mean.
02

Finding the 95% Confidence Interval

First, we compute the standard error, which is the standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size. For our data, standard deviation \(s = 1.5\) and sample size \(n = 100\), so our standard error(SE) is \(s / \sqrt{n} = 1.5/\sqrt{100} = 0.15\). The formula for the confidence interval is \( \bar{X} \pm Z * SE \) where \( \bar{X} \) is the sample mean and Z is the critical value. For a 95% confidence interval, the critical value is given as 1.96. Substituting all values into the equation, we find our 95% confidence interval as: \(1.85 \pm 1.96 * 0.15\), which simplifies to \(1.85 - 0.294\) to \(1.85 + 0.294\). Thus, the 95% confidence interval is \(1.56, 2.14\).
03

Finding the 90% Confidence Interval

Using the same approach, we now change our critical value to 1.645 for a 90% confidence interval. Applying the formula \( \bar{X} \pm Z * SE \), we get: \(1.85 \pm 1.645 * 0.15\), which simplifies to \(1.85 - 0.24675\) to \(1.85 + 0.24675\). Thus, the 90% confidence interval is \(1.60325, 2.09675\).
04

Comparing Confidence Intervals

Upon comparing, we note that the 95% confidence interval (\(1.56, 2.14\)) is wider than the 90% confidence interval (\(1.60325, 2.09675\)). This is because the higher the level of confidence, the wider the confidence interval. This is to incorporate more possible values for the population mean since we are more sure (95% compared to 90%) that the true mean falls within this interval.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Mean
The population mean is a measure that indicates the average outcome for a certain population. When we collect data from a sample, like the number of children women have in the exercise, we are aiming to make inferences about the entire population’s mean value. Since it's impractical to survey every individual in a population, a sample provides a manageable and cost-effective approximation.

For instance, if a survey found that the average number of children is 1.85 for a sample of women, this sample mean is used as an estimate for the population mean. The population mean is a key element in calculating confidence intervals as it represents the value we are trying to estimate and make conclusions about.
Standard Error
The standard error is a statistic that measures the precision of the sample mean as an estimate of the population mean. Essentially, it reflects the variability of the sample means you might get if you took multiple samples from the same population.

In the context of our exercise, we calculate the standard error by dividing the sample standard deviation (1.5) by the square root of the sample size (\(sqrt{100}\)). This calculation results in a standard error of 0.15, which we use to understand how much the sample mean (1.85) might fluctuate around the population mean. A smaller standard error indicates a more precise estimate, which ultimately affects the width of the confidence interval.
Critical Value
A critical value is a point on the distribution curve that separates the area where the null hypothesis is accepted from the area where the null hypothesis is rejected. It is contingent on the desired level of confidence and the distribution being used.

In the given exercise, the critical values 1.96 and 1.645 are used for calculating the 95% and 90% confidence intervals, respectively. These values represent the Z-scores for the standard normal distribution. To clarify, these Z-scores symbolize how many standard deviations away from the mean a certain point is. The larger the critical value, the wider the confidence interval, as we’ve observed in the step-by-step solution.
Sample Size
Sample size plays a pivotal role in statistical analysis. In essence, the larger the sample, the closer you are likely to get to the true mean of the population, hence, the lower your standard error and the more precise your estimate will be.

In our example, a sample size of 100 is large enough to apply the central limit theorem and justify the use of Z-scores instead of T-scores for constructing confidence intervals. It's also why the sample mean of 1.85 children is likely a strong estimate of the true population mean. Nevertheless, larger sample sizes would further refine our confidence interval, making it narrower and providing a more precise range for the population mean.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance indicates the likelihood that the result from a study or experiment is due to something other than random chance. It's a measure of the strength of evidence when testing hypotheses.

The confidence levels used in our exercise (90% and 95%) relate directly to statistical significance. They indicate the degree to which we can be confident that the population parameter (mean number of children) will fall within the estimated interval. As the confidence level increases, we require more evidence to reject the null hypothesis and, therefore, the confidence interval becomes wider. It flags the trade-off between certainty and precision when interpreting statistical results.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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