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An MCQ test has 75 questions with four options each. Suppose a passing grade is 50 or more correct answers. Test the claim that a student knows more than half of the answers and is not just guessing. Assume the student gets 50 answers correct out of 75 . Use a significance level of \(0.05\). Steps 1 and 2 of a hypothesis test procedure are given. Show steps 3 and \(4 .\) and be sure to write a clear conclusion. Step \(1: \mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.25\) \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}: p>0.25\) Step 2: Choose the one-proportion \(z\) -test. Sample size is large enough, because \(n p_{0}\) is \(75(0.25)=18.75\), and \(n\left(1-p_{0}\right)=75(0.75)=56.25\), and both are more than \(10 .\) Assume the sample is random and \(\alpha=0.05\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
An analysis of the MCQ test results suggests that the student's knowledge is significantly better than just guessing, as the p-value is less than 0.05, leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis that the student's correct answer rate is only 0.25.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Test Statistic and P-Value

Firstly, the sample proportion (\(p\)) is calculated by dividing the number of correct answers by the total number of questions: \(p = 50/75 = 0.67\). Then, the standard deviation of the null hypothesis distribution is calculated with \(\sigma = \sqrt{p_{0}(1-p_{0})/n} = \sqrt{0.25*0.75/75} = 0.05\). The z-score is therefore \((p - p_0) / \sigma = (0.67 - 0.25) / 0.05 = 8.4\).Using the standard normal distribution, the p-value is the probability of getting a z-score greater than 8.4. This probability is very close to 0.
02

Make a Decision

Since the p-value calculated in step 3 is less than the significance level \(\alpha = 0.05\), the decision is to reject the null hypothesis \(\mathrm{H}_{0}\). This suggests that the student's proportion of right answers is significantly greater than what would be expected by chance if the student were just guessing.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

One-Proportion Z-Test
The One-Proportion Z-Test is a statistical test used to determine if the proportion of a single sample is significantly different from a known or hypothesized population proportion. This is especially useful when you're dealing with categorical data and you want to test the proportion of occurrences in one category.

In our exercise, the main question is whether the proportion of correct answers on a multiple-choice test, claimed by the student, truly reflects a degree of knowledge beyond mere guessing. The null hypothesis assumes no difference from guessing, while the alternate hypothesis suggests otherwise.
  • Calculate the sample proportion (\( p = \frac{\text{number of successes}}{\text{sample size}} \)).
  • Evaluate the test statistic, typically a Z-score in this test.
  • Use the Z-score to find the p-value, indicating the probability of observing at least this difference under the null hypothesis.

The test is applicable only under certain assumptions: the sample size must be large enough for the normal approximation to be valid, and the sample should be random.
Significance Level
The significance level, denoted by \(\alpha\), is a threshold set by the researcher which determines when to reject the null hypothesis. It represents the risk the researcher is willing to take for making a Type I error, that is, rejecting a true null hypothesis.

In our scenario, a significance level of \(0.05\) is used. This implies that there is a 5% risk of concluding that the student knows more than a quarter of the answers (just guessing) when in fact, they do not.
  • The lower the \(\alpha\), the more stringent the test, needing stronger evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
  • If the p-value is below the chosen \(\alpha\), the results are termed statistically significant.

The choice of significance level should consider the context of the hypothesis being tested and the potential implications of making errors.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, symbolized as \(H_0\), is a core concept in hypothesis testing. It is a statement of no effect or no difference, and acts as a starting point for statistical testing.

In the exercise provided, the null hypothesis is that the student’s proportion of correct answers is 0.25, which would imply that their performance is consistent with mere guessing on a multiple-choice test.
  • It is generally assumed true until evidence suggests otherwise.
  • The aim is to determine whether the data collected provides sufficient evidence to reject \(H_0\) in favor of an alternative hypothesis.

The null hypothesis is only rejected if the sample data's evidence exceeds a pre-determined threshold, often the significance level. This involves comparing the p-value to \(\alpha\). If the p-value is lower, we reject \(H_0\), suggesting the alternate hypothesis holds merit.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A taste test is done to see whether a person can tell Coke from Pepsi. In each case, 20 random and independent trials are done (half with Pepsi and half with Coke) in which the person determines whether she or he is drinking Coke or Pepsi. One person gets 13 right out of 20 trials. Which of the following is the correct figure to test the hypothesis that the person can tell the difference? Explain your choice.

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A researcher carried out a hypothesis test using a two-sided alternative hypothesis. Which of the following \(z\) -scores is associated with the smallest p-value? Explain. $$ \text { i. } z=0.50 $$ ii. \(z=1.00\) iii. \(z=2.00\) iv. \(z=3.00\)

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