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According to a leading juice company, mixed fruit juice makes up \(35 \%\) of the total sales. Suppose we examine 200 random customers. a. How many customers should we expect for our sample percentage of mixed fruit juice? b. What is the standard error? c. Use your answer to fill in the blanks: We expect \(\%\) mixed fruit juice buyers, give or take \(\%\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
We should expect approximately 70 mixed fruit juice buyers from 200 random customers. The standard error is 0.027 or \(2.7\%\). We hence expect about \(35\%\) mixed fruit juice buyers, give or take \(2.7\%\).

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Expected Number of Juice Buyers

We know that the population proportion of mixed fruit juice buyers is \(0.35\), aka, \(35\% \). If we have 200 random customers, we can expect \(200 * 0.35 = 70\) of them to be juice buyers.
02

Calculate the Standard Error

The formula for the standard error with proportions is \(\sqrt{ p(1 - p) / n }\), where \( p \) is the population proportion and \( n \) is the number of samples. Substituting the values, we get: \( \sqrt{ 0.35(1 - 0.35) / 200 } = 0.027 \). Therefore, the standard error of mixed fruit juice buyers is 0.027 or \(2.7\%\)
03

Determine the Expected Percentage and Range

The expected percentage of mixed fruit juice buyers is the population proportion, which is \(35\% \). Considering the standard error, this percentage could vary by about \(2.7\%\). Thus, we expect \(35\%\), give or take \(2.7\%\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Error
Understanding the standard error (SE) is critical in statistics, especially when dealing with sample data. It's a measure that tells us how much the sample proportion is likely to differ from the actual population proportion. Think of it as an indicator of accuracy for an estimate.

In the exercise concerning the juice company, the standard error helps us gauge the reliability of our findings from the 200 sampled customers. The formula \( \sqrt{p(1 - p) / n} \) might look a bit daunting, but here's the breakdown. The 'p' stands for the population proportion, which is the percentage we know from the overall sales. The 'n' is the number of customers we've decided to survey. By plugging in the values, we calculated a standard error of 0.027, or 2.7%.

This figure tells us that if we were to repeat our survey many times, the proportion of mixed fruit juice buyers would typically vary by 2.7% from the expected 35%. In essence, the smaller the standard error, the closer we can expect our sample estimate to be to the true population proportion. It's like having a tighter safety circle around our estimate.
Expected Value Calculation
The term 'expected value' is a statistical term that essentially means what the average outcome should be if we were to repeat an experiment over and over again. It's a very handy way of summarizing a large amount of possible outcomes into a single, typical value.

In the juice company scenario, we're dealing with a simple calculation. We know 35% of total sales are mixed fruit juice, so the expected value for the number of customers who prefer mixed fruit juice out of a random sample of 200 customers is calculated as 200 multiplied by the proportion 0.35. That gives us an expected value of 70 buyers.

This concept is crucial because it provides the basis for other calculations, like variance and standard deviation. In real-world applications, understanding the expected value helps businesses make informed decisions about inventory, marketing strategies, and projections for future sales.
Sampling Distribution
Sampling distribution is a term that might make students feel uneasy, but it's actually an incredibly useful concept once understood. It’s the distribution you’d get if you took many samples and plotted a histogram of the sample proportions. It gives us a picture of how our sample results (like the percentage of juice buyers) are distributed around the true population proportion.

In this exercise, if we were to take many groups of 200 customers, the sampling distribution would show us how those samples' proportions of mixed fruit juice buyers are spread out. Most would be close to 35%, with fewer and fewer getting further away. This distribution can often be approximated by a normal distribution when the sample size is large enough (thanks to the Central Limit Theorem), as long as the population proportion isn't too extreme.

The sampling distribution isn’t just theoretical—it’s practical. Understanding its shape, center, and spread (like the standard error we calculated) empowers students to make predictions and answer questions like: 'How unusual is a sample result?'. It’s a key player in confidence intervals and hypothesis testing, cornerstones of statistical inference.

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