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Cremation rates have been increasing. In Nevada the cremation rate is \(70 \%\). Suppose that we take a random sample of 400 deaths in Nevada. a. How many of these decedents would you expect to be cremated? b. What is the standard deviation for the number to be cremated? c. How many would you expect not to be cremated? d. What is the standard deviation for the number not to be cremated? t. E. Explain the relationship between the answers to parts b and d.

Short Answer

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a. Expect to cremate: 280 decedents. \n b. Standard deviation for cremations: 9.11. \n c. Expect not to cremate: 120 decedents. \n d. Standard deviation for non-cremations: 9.11. \n e. The standard deviation for the number to be cremated and not to be cremated is the same.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the expected number of cremations

The expected number or mean of a binomial distribution is calculated with the formula: \[E(X) = n * p\]. Substituting \(n=400\) and \(p=0.7\), we get \(E(X) = 400 * 0.7 = 280\). Hence, we would expect 280 decedents to be cremated.
02

Calculate the standard deviation for the number to be cremated

The standard deviation of a binomial distribution is calculated by: \[\sigma = \sqrt{n * p * (1-p)}\]. Substituting \(n=400\), \(p=0.7\) and \(1-p = 0.3\), we get \(\sigma = \sqrt{400 * 0.7 * 0.3} \approx 9.11\)
03

Calculate the expected number of non-cremations

The number of decedents expected not to be cremated is simply the difference between the total deaths and the expected number of cremations. So the expected number of non-cremations is \(400 - 280 = 120\)
04

Calculate the standard deviation for the number not to be cremated

The standard deviation for the number of successes in a binomial distribution does not change if we are considering the complement. This is because the standard deviation formula has \(p*(1-p)\) in it, and changing \(p\) to \(1-p\) doesn't affect the value. So, the standard deviation for the number not to be cremated is also \(9.11\)
05

Explaining the relationship between the answers to parts b and d

The standard deviation for the number to be cremated and the number not to be cremated is the same because in a binomial distribution, changing \(p\) to \((1-p)\) doesn't change the standard deviation. This is due to the symmetry of binomial distribution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Expected Value Calculation
The expected value, often denoted as E(X) for a distribution, is the long-term average or mean that one could expect after many trials or observations. In a binomial distribution, which deals with a fixed number of trials and only two possible outcomes in each trial, the expected value calculation is particularly straightforward. It's the number of trials, denoted by 'n', multiplied by the probability of success in one trial, denoted by 'p'.

Thus, the formula for expected value in a binomial distribution is: \[E(X) = n * p\].

For instance, when conversing about cremation rates, if we take a sample size of 400 deaths and know that the probability of a death resulting in cremation is 70% (or 0.7), the expected value of cremations can be calculated by multiplying 400 by 0.7, yielding an expected value of 280 cremations.
Standard Deviation of Binomial Distribution
Standard deviation in statistics measures the spread of a set of values. In a binomial distribution, it quantifies the variability from the expected value. The formula for the standard deviation of a binomial distribution, denoted as \( \sigma \), involves the number of trials (n), the probability of success (p), and the probability of failure (1-p).

The formula is expressed as: \[\sigma = \sqrt{n * p * (1-p)}\].

For our cremation example, if there are 400 deaths (n=400) with a 70% chance (p=0.7) of cremation, the probability of a death not resulting in cremation is 30% (1-p=0.3). Plugging these numbers into the formula, we obtain a standard deviation of approximately 9.11, indicating the extent of variation we might expect around the average number of cremations.
Complement Rule in Probability
The complement rule in probability is an essential concept that relates to the probability of an event not happening. It is based on the premise that the probability of an event occurring combined with the probability of it not occurring is always 1 (or 100%). Therefore, if the probability of an event is 'p', the probability of its complement—i.e., the event not occurring—is '1 - p'.

In practical terms, when trying to calculate the expected number of non-cremations in our earlier example, one would subtract the expected number of cremations (280) from the total number of deaths (400), which would give us the number of decedents expected not to be cremated (120). This is a direct application of the complement rule, where the probability and expected number of non-occurrences are readily inferred from their complements.
Formula Application in Statistics
In statistics, the application of formulas is central to processing data and interpreting results. By applying these formulas correctly, statisticians turn raw data into meaningful information. For the binomial distribution parameters, such as expected value and standard deviation, the right formulas provide insight into the data set's behavior, predict future outcomes, and draw conclusions.

For our example, using the formulas for expected value and standard deviation of binomial distribution, we could calculate both the expected number of cremations and their variability. Moreover, we noted that the standard deviation for the complement of an event (non-cremation) remained the same as that of the event itself (cremation). This exemplifies the symmetrical nature of binomial distributions and demonstrates how thoughtful formula application is crucial to statistical analysis.

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