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Socialism According to a Pew poll conducted in 2012 , 235 out of 489 Democrats viewed "Socialism" as positive. If one Democrat is randomly chosen from those 489, what is the probability that the person has a positive view of "Socialism"?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that a randomly chosen Democrat from the 489 polled views 'Socialism' positively is \(\frac{235}{489}\).

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Sample Space

The sample space in this problem is the total number of Democrats polled. In this case, given by the question, it is 489.
02

Identify the Number of Successful Events

The successful event in this context is a Democrat viewing 'Socialism' positively. According to the information presented, this number is 235.
03

Apply the Probability Formula

Probability is given by the formula \[ P(E) = \frac{number\:of\:successful\:events}{total\:number\:of\:events} \]. In this case, it would be: \[ P(E) = \frac{235}{489} \]
04

Calculate the Probability

Divide 235 by 489 to get the probability of the event. This should give a decimal/percentage representing the likelihood of randomly selecting one Democrat who views 'Socialism' in a positive light.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Space
Understanding the concept of sample space is fundamental to comprehending probability. The sample space represents all the possible outcomes of a particular situation or experiment. It can be thought of as the 'universe' of all potential results that can occur.

For example, in the exercise involving the Pew poll, the sample space is the total number of Democrats who participated in the poll, totaling 489. Always remember that the sample space must include every possible outcome with no repetitions.

To improve the grasp on this concept, consider different scenarios with their sample spaces. For instance, the sample space for a coin toss is \( \lbrace Heads, Tails \rbrace \) and for a single roll of a six-sided die, it's \( \lbrace 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 \rbrace \). Grasping this foundation makes the entire concept of probability much clearer.
Successful Events
When dealing with probabilities, identifying 'successful events' is crucial. A successful event is any outcome that fits the criteria for what we're measuring. In other words, it's the specific result or set of results that we're interested in out of the entire sample space.

In the context of our example, the successful events are the Democrats who view 'Socialism' positively, numbering 235. Whenever you're working on probability problems, precisely define what counts as a successful event. For instance, in a card game, if you're looking for the success of drawing an ace, then the successful events are the four aces in a deck. Knowing the successful events helps us calculate the probability of an event occurring.

It's good practice to list out successful events when possible. This aids in clarity and ensures you understand the parameters of the problem you're solving.
Probability Formula
Probability can be quantified using a formula, which is the backbone of any probability calculation. The formula is as follows: \[ P(E) = \frac{\text{number of successful events}}{\text{total number of events in the sample space}} \]

In our polling example, the probability (P(E)) of selecting a Democrat with a positive view of 'Socialism' is the ratio of the number of successful events (235 Democrats with a positive view) to the total size of the sample space (489 Democrats polled). Using the given formula:\[ P(E) = \frac{235}{489} \]
Breaking down the formula and understanding each component significantly aids in the comprehension of probability. The numerator represents the count of our desired outcomes, while the denominator represents all possible outcomes. This formula reflects the very essence of probability - the chance of a particular event occurring within a set of all possible events.

To apply this concept to more complex problems, consider an event with multiple ways of occurring. The main takeaway is that the probability formula remains a reliable and straightforward method of determining the likelihood of an event.

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