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Die Sequences (Example 15) Roll a fair six-sided die five times, and record the number of spots on top. Which sequence is more likely? Explain. Sequence A: 66666 Sequence B: 16643

Short Answer

Expert verified
Both sequences are equally likely. Every specific sequence of five rolls has the same probability of 1/7776.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the concept of independent events

In this problem, each roll of the die can be considered as an independent event, meaning the outcome of any roll does not affect the others. Now, because the die is fair, there's an equal chance, or a probability of 1/6, for any of six numbers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) to appear on top at each roll.
02

Compute the probability of Sequence A

Sequence A consists of rolling a six, five times consecutively. The probability of rolling a six once is 1/6. Since each roll is independent, the probability of rolling a six five times in a row is \( (1/6) \times (1/6) \times (1/6) \times (1/6) \times (1/6) = (1/6)^5 = 1/7776 \).
03

Compute the probability of Sequence B

Sequence B consists of rolling the sequence 1,6,6,4,3. Following the logic from step 2, the probability of rolling this exact sequence is also \( (1/6) \times (1/6) \times (1/6) \times (1/6) \times (1/6) = (1/6)^5 = 1/7776 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
Understanding the concept of independent events is crucial when analyzing scenarios that involve randomness, such as the roll of a fair die. In probability, events are considered independent if the occurrence of one event has no effect on the probability of the occurrence of another event.

For example, when you roll a six-sided die, the outcome of one roll does not influence or change the chances of the outcomes of subsequent rolls. Each roll is a unique event with the same set of possible results. In the context of the exercise, each of the five rolls is independent. Therefore, no matter what number is rolled on the first attempt, it has no bearing on the subsequent rolls. Knowing that events are independent is helpful because it allows us to simply multiply their individual probabilities to find the combined probability of a series of events.
Probability Computation
Probability computation involves determining the likelihood of a particular event or series of events occurring. The fundamental principle in calculating probability is to consider the ratio of the favorable outcomes to the total possible outcomes. For the fair die in our exercise, this means assessing the chances of a certain number appearing on the die in each roll.

Computing the probability of a sequence, such as Sequence A (66666) or Sequence B (16643), requires the application of the multiplication rule for independent events. Since the probability of any specific number on a single roll is \(1/6\), obtaining five specific numbers in a row is calculated by raising \(1/6\) to the fifth power, resulting in a probability of \(1/7776\) for each sequence. These calculations are paramount in understanding that, despite appearances, all distinct sequences of fair die rolls are equally likely.
Fair Dice Outcomes
The concept of a 'fair' die is grounded in the principle that each face of the die should have an equal probability of landing face up after a roll. A fair six-sided die means that every number from 1 to 6 has an exact \(1/6\) chance of appearing on any given roll.

Understanding fair dice outcomes dispels common misconceptions—many individuals might think that rolling five sixes in a row (Sequence A) is less likely than rolling a varied sequence like 16643 (Sequence B). However, because the die is fair, any specific sequence over five rolls has the same exact probability of occurring. Each outcome is a product of the independent, identical probabilities for each roll. This concept reinforces the idea that in the realm of randomness, our human biases towards patterns should not influence our understanding of probability.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

California Recidivism In California, the recidivism rate for prisoners is \(67.5 \%\). That is, \(67.5 \%\) of those released from prison go back to prison within three years. This is one of the highest recidivism rates in the nation. a. Suppose two independent prisoners are released. What is the probability that they will both go back to prison within three years? b. What is the probability that neither will go back to prison within three years? c. Suppose two independent prisoners are released. What is the probability that one OR the other (or both) will go back to prison within three years?

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