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Online Test An online test consists of 20 multiple-choice questions. Each of the 20 answers is either right or wrong. Suppose the probability that an examinee gets fewer than 5 answers correct is \(0.42\) and the probability that an examinee gets from 5 to 12 (inclusive) answers correct is \(0.38\). Find the probability that an examinee gets: a. More than 12 answers correct b. At most 12 answers correct c. 50 or more answers correct d. Which of the two events in \(\mathrm{a}-\mathrm{c}\) are complements of each other, and why?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The probability of getting more than 12 answers correct is 0.20 \n b. The probability of getting at most 12 answers correct is 0.80 \n c. The probability of getting 50 or more answers correct is 0 \n d. The events in a and b are complementary.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Probability for More Than 12 Answers Correct

To find the probability of getting more than 12 answers correct, subtract the probability of getting fewer than 5 answers correct and the probability of getting from 5 to 12 answers correct from 1. This can be done since the total probability must add up to 1. So, \(Pr(More \ than \ 12 \ correct) = 1 - Pr(Fewer \ than \ 5 \ correct) - Pr(5 \ to \ 12 \ correct) = 1 - 0.42 - 0.38 = 0.20.
02

Calculate the Probability for At Most 12 Answers Correct

The phrase 'at most 12 answers correct' indicates that the examinee can have 12 or less answers correct. This encompasses the two previously given probabilities, so sum those up to find the answer. So, \(Pr(At \ most \ 12 \ correct) = Pr(Fewer \ than \ 5 \ correct) + Pr(5 \ to \ 12 \ correct) = 0.42 + 0.38 = 0.80.
03

There Can't be a Probability for 50 or More Answers Correct

Since there are only 20 questions in the test, it's impossible for an examinee to get 50 or more answers correct. Therefore, the probability of getting 50 or more answers correct is 0.
04

Identify Complementary Events

Complementary events are pairs of events that together cover all possible outcomes, and only one event can happen at a time (they are mutually exclusive). In this case, 'more than 12 answers correct' and 'at most 12 answers correct' are complements of each other because these two probabilities add up to 1 and they are mutually exclusive (the examinee either gets more than 12 answers right or 12 or less answers right).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Multiple-Choice Questions in Probability
When we talk about multiple-choice questions within the context of probability, we refer to questions in a quiz or test where each question has a set of available answers, but only one is correct. These types of questions are a popular subject for probability exercises because they can illustrate many concepts of probability in a clear and tangible manner. For our exercise, each of the 20 answers can be right or wrong, which are considered independent events — the result of one question does not affect the others.

Calculating probabilities in a multiple-choice scenario can involve the use of different rules and methods, such as the addition rule for mutually exclusive events or the multiplication rule for independent events. For instance, if a student was randomly guessing each answer, the probability of getting any single question right could be determined by the number of choices per question. However, our exercise covers a different facet: the likelihood of getting a total score within certain ranges after all questions are answered.
Complementary Events in Practice
The concept of complementary events plays a fundamental role in probability theory. It refers to two outcomes of an event that are the only two possible outcomes, and that cannot occur at the same time — for example, flipping a coin which can only land on heads or tails, not both. In probability, the sum of the probabilities of complementary events is always equal to 1 (or 100%).

Regarding our exercise, we are asked to determine complementary events related to quiz scores. Specifically, an examinee can either score 'more than 12 answers correct' or 'at most 12 answers correct.' These two scenarios encompass all possible outcomes and are mutually exclusive, thus qualifying as complementary events. Understanding complementary events often simplifies probability calculations, as it can be easier to calculate the probability of one event and then subtract from 1 to find its complement.
The Essentials of Probability Theory
Probability theory provides a mathematical framework for quantifying the likelihood of events. It’s used across many fields such as statistics, finance, science, and in our case, educational testing. The probability of an event is a measure between 0 and 1, with 0 indicating impossibility and 1 indicating certainty.

To calculate probabilities effectively, one must understand various principles and rules such as the law of total probability, independence, and conditional probability. In the context of our exercise, we utilize simple probability calculations based on given data: the probabilities of getting fewer than 5 answers correct and of getting from 5 to 12 answers correct. From this, we can deduce the probability of scoring more than 12 correct answers. Additionally, probability theory explains why there can be no probability for 50 or more answers correct in a 20-question test — it transcends the realm of possibility, thereby having a probability of 0.

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