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The College Board reported that the average number of freshman class applications to public colleges and universities is \(6000(\text {USA Today, December } 26,2002\) ). During a recent application/enrollment period, a sample of 32 colleges and universities showed that the sample mean number of freshman class applications was 5812 with a sample standard deviation of \(1140 .\) Do the data indicate a change in the mean number of applications? Use \(\alpha=.05\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, the data does not indicate a change in the mean number of applications.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Hypotheses

First, we need to set up our null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis \( H_0 \) claims that there is no change in the mean number of applications, so \( \mu = 6000 \). The alternative hypothesis \( H_a \) claims that there is a change in the mean number of applications, so \( \mu eq 6000 \).
02

Identify the Significance Level

The significance level \( \alpha \) is given as 0.05. This is the threshold for determining if the observed data is statistically significant.
03

Calculate the Test Statistic

We use the formula for the test statistic: \[ t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{s/\sqrt{n}} \]where \(\bar{x} = 5812\) is the sample mean, \(\mu = 6000\) is the population mean, \(s = 1140\) is the sample standard deviation, and \(n = 32\) is the sample size.Substituting these values, \[ t = \frac{5812 - 6000}{1140/\sqrt{32}} \approx \frac{-188}{201.59} \approx -0.933 \]
04

Determine the Degrees of Freedom

The degrees of freedom for this test is \( n - 1 = 32 - 1 = 31 \).
05

Compare with Critical Value

We need to compare the calculated test statistic to the critical t-value for \( df = 31 \) and \( \alpha = 0.05 \). Using a t-distribution table, the critical t-values (two-tailed test) are approximately \( -2.040 \) and \( 2.040 \).
06

Make a Decision

Since the calculated test statistic \(-0.933\) lies between the critical values \(-2.040\) and \(2.040\), we fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not enough evidence to suggest a change in the mean number of applications.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, often denoted by \( H_0 \), is a fundamental concept in hypothesis testing. Its main role is to serve as the default or neutral statement about a population parameter, typically asserting that no effect or no difference exists. In our example, the null hypothesis claim is that the mean number of applications to public colleges remains \( 6000 \). This suggests that any observed deviation in the sample data is due to random chance rather than a true change in the underlying population parameter.

Formulating a null hypothesis is always the first step in hypothesis testing. It sets the stage for statistical tests and defines what we are trying to test against. Here, by stating that \( \mu = 6000 \), we are saying that unless we find strong evidence by statistical standards, we maintain that the original mean continues to be correct.
  • Symbol: \( H_0 \)
  • Claim: The mean applications \( \mu = 6000 \)
  • Purpose: Serves as a baseline for testing.
Alternative Hypothesis
Contrary to the null hypothesis is the alternative hypothesis, denoted by \( H_a \). This hypothesis posits the exact opposite of what the null hypothesis states. In this context, the alternative hypothesis suggests that the mean number of applications is not \( 6000 \). It's a way of challenging the status quo and is what researchers typically want to prove.

The alternative hypothesis is often expressed with a "not equal to" sign (for a two-tailed test) or "greater than/less than" for a one-tailed test. In our case, \( \mu eq 6000 \) implies that either an increase or decrease in applications can indicate that the original assumption (null hypothesis) is incorrect.
  • Symbol: \( H_a \)
  • Claim: The mean applications \( \mu eq 6000 \)
  • Purpose: Represents the research hypothesis or the statement we aim to provide evidence for.
Significance Level
The significance level, denoted by \( \alpha \), is a critical part of hypothesis testing. It acts like a threshold that helps decide whether or not a particular observed effect is statistically significant. In this problem, the significance level is set at \( 0.05 \). This implies a 5% risk of concluding that a difference exists when there is none (Type I error).

Setting \( \alpha \) at 0.05 is a common choice in research, balancing the trade-off between being too lenient and too stringent. Depending on the context of the research, the significance level can be adjusted. One would choose a smaller \( \alpha \) for more stringent error risk control, and a larger \( \alpha \) if the consequences of a Type I error are less severe.
  • Notation: \( \alpha \)
  • Value: \( 0.05 \)
  • Purpose: Defines the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it's actually true.
Test Statistic
The test statistic helps determine how far the sample data deviates from the null hypothesis. It quantifies the evidence against the null hypothesis. In this exercise, we use a t-test statistic because the sample size is relatively small, and the population standard deviation is unknown. The formula for the t-test statistic is: \[ t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{s/\sqrt{n}} \] Where:
  • \( \bar{x} \) is the sample mean
  • \( \mu \) is the population mean under the null hypothesis
  • \( s \) is the sample standard deviation
  • \( n \) is the sample size
Substituting the given values into the formula, we derived \( t \approx -0.933 \). This value tells us how many standard errors the sample mean is from the hypothesized population mean of \( 6000 \). In general, the greater the magnitude of the test statistic, the stronger the evidence against the null hypothesis. In our case, since \(-0.933\) is not beyond the critical values, we do not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

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