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A simple random sample of 400 individuals provides 100 Yes responses. a. What is the point estimate of the proportion of the population that would provide Yes responses? b. What is your estimate of the standard error of the proportion, \(\sigma_{\bar{p}} ?\) c. Compute the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population proportion.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The point estimate is 0.25. b. The standard error is approximately 0.02165. c. The 95% confidence interval is (0.20758, 0.29242).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Point Estimate

The point estimate of a population proportion is given by the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \). Here, we know that out of 400 individuals, 100 gave a 'Yes' response. So, the point estimate \( \hat{p} \) is calculated by dividing the number of 'Yes' responses by the total number of respondents: \( \hat{p} = \frac{100}{400} = 0.25 \).
02

Calculating the Standard Error

The standard error of the proportion \( \sigma_{\bar{p}} \) is calculated using the formula \( \sigma_{\bar{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \), where \( n \) is the sample size. Plugging in our values: \( \sigma_{\bar{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.25 \times (1 - 0.25)}{400}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.25 \times 0.75}{400}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.1875}{400}} \approx 0.02165 \).
03

Computing the Confidence Interval

For a \( 95\% \) confidence interval, the formula is \( \hat{p} \pm z \cdot \sigma_{\bar{p}} \), where \( z \) is the z-score for a \( 95\% \) confidence level, which is typically \( 1.96 \). So, we compute \( 0.25 \pm 1.96 \times 0.02165 \). This gives us the interval \( 0.25 \pm 0.04242 \) or \( (0.20758, 0.29242) \). This means we are 95% confident that the true population proportion is between 0.20758 and 0.29242.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Point Estimate
The point estimate is a way to estimate an unknown population parameter by using a single value derived from a sample. In the case of population proportion estimation, the point estimate is represented by the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \). This essentially is the best single guess we have based on the sample data.

To calculate \( \hat{p} \), take the number of successes in the sample, which is the number of 'Yes' responses, and divide it by the total number of observations in the sample. For example, if 100 people out of 400 respond 'Yes', the point estimate would be \( \hat{p} = \frac{100}{400} = 0.25 \).

This 0.25 proportion reflects our best single guess of the proportion of the entire population that would say 'Yes.' It is important to remember that this is a point estimate, meaning it does not express the range of uncertainty—just one possible outcome.
Standard Error
The standard error of a statistic provides an estimate of the variability of the sample proportion. It tells us how much the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is likely to vary from one sample to another due to chance alone. In simple terms, it allows us to understand how precise our estimate of the population proportion is.

To find the standard error of the sample proportion \( \sigma_{\bar{p}} \), you use the formula:\[\sigma_{\bar{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}\]where \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion, and \( n \) is the sample size.

Using our example: \( \hat{p} = 0.25 \) and \( n = 400 \), thus:\[\sigma_{\bar{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.25 \times 0.75}{400}} \approx 0.02165\]
This means there's a standard deviation of 0.02165 between sample proportions, offering a measure of the sampling error, or the natural variation we'd expect just by chance.
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval gives a range within which we expect the true population proportion to fall. It is constructed around the point estimate and extends as far as the standard error allows, given a particular level of confidence—typically 95%.

For a 95% confidence interval, we use a z-score, which is 1.96 for 95% confidence level. The confidence interval is calculated with:\[\hat{p} \pm z \times \sigma_{\bar{p}}\]Given our point estimate \( \hat{p} = 0.25 \) and standard error \( \sigma_{\bar{p}} \approx 0.02165 \), we compute:\[0.25 \pm 1.96 \times 0.02165 \approx 0.25 \pm 0.04242\]which gives us the range \((0.20758, 0.29242)\).

Thus, we are 95% confident that the true population proportion of 'Yes' responses falls between 0.20758 and 0.29242. The interval reflects the degree of uncertainty or certainty in our estimation, factoring in sample size and variability.

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