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Consumption of alcoholic beverages by young women of drinking age has been increasing in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Europe (The Wall Street Journal, February 15 2006 ). Data (annual consumption in liters) consistent with the findings reported in The Wall Street Journal article are shown for a sample of 20 European young women. $$\begin{array}{rrrrr}266 & 82 & 199 & 174 & 97 \\\170 & 222 & 115 & 130 & 169 \\\164 & 102 & 113 & 171 & 0 \\\93 & 0 & 93 & 110 & 1300\end{array}$$ Assuming the population is roughly symmetric, construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean annual consumption of alcoholic beverages by European young women.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval is (57.04, 329.96) liters.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Sample Mean and Standard Deviation

First, determine the sample mean \( \bar{x} \) by averaging all provided data values. The formula for the sample mean is:\[ \bar{x} = \frac{\sum{x_i}}{n} \]where \( x_i \) are the observations and \( n \) is the number of observations. For this dataset, sum all the values and divide by 20 to find \( \bar{x} = \frac{3870}{20} = 193.5 \).Next, calculate the sample standard deviation (s) using the formula:\[ s = \sqrt{\frac{\sum{(x_i - \bar{x})^2}}{n-1}} \]Compute \( \sum{(x_i - \bar{x})^2} \), divide by the number of observations minus one, and take the square root to obtain \( s = 291.51 \).
02

Determine T-Statistic

Since the population standard deviation is not known and the sample size is less than 30, use the t-distribution. For a \( 95\% \) confidence interval and \( n - 1 = 19 \) degrees of freedom, find the t-value from the t-distribution table (or a calculator), which is approximately \( t_{0.025,19} = 2.093 \).
03

Calculate the Margin of Error

The margin of error (ME) is calculated using the formula:\[ ME = t \cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \]Substitute \( t = 2.093 \), \( s = 291.51 \), and \( n = 20 \) into the formula:\[ ME = 2.093 \times \frac{291.51}{\sqrt{20}} = 136.46 \]
04

Construct the Confidence Interval

Now, construct the confidence interval using \( \bar{x} \pm ME \). Insert \( \bar{x} = 193.5 \) and \( ME = 136.46 \):\[ 193.5 - 136.46 = 57.04 \text{ and } 193.5 + 136.46 = 329.96 \]Thus, the \( 95\% \) confidence interval for the mean annual consumption is \( (57.04, 329.96) \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Mean
The concept of the sample mean is foundational in statistics. The sample mean is essentially the average of a selected set of data points. Here, it represents the average annual consumption of alcohol by young European women based on the given sample. To compute the sample mean, we sum all the observations in the dataset and then divide by the number of observations.Here's a quick refresher on the formula:
  • Sum all data points: \( \sum{x_i} \)
  • Count the number of data points: \( n \)
  • Calculate the mean: \( \bar{x} = \frac{\sum{x_i}}{n} \)
In the provided example, the sum of all values is 3870, and the number of observations is 20. Taking these into account, we have a sample mean \( \bar{x} \) of 193.5 liters. This sample mean is a key estimate of the true population mean and is used throughout the confidence interval calculation.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out numbers are in a dataset. It provides insights into the variability or dispersion of the sample, helping us understand how much data points typically deviate from the mean. A lower standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be close to the mean, while a higher standard deviation suggests more spread.To calculate the standard deviation in a sample:
  • Subtract the mean from each data point to find the deviation \( (x_i - \bar{x}) \)
  • Square each deviation to eliminate negative values and sum them up: \( \sum{(x_i - \bar{x})^2} \)
  • Divide by the number of observations minus one (\( n - 1 \)), which accounts for the degrees of freedom in a sample: \( \frac{\sum{(x_i - \bar{x})^2}}{n-1} \)
  • Take the square root to return the value to the original unit: \( s = \sqrt{\frac{\sum{(x_i - \bar{x})^2}}{n-1}} \)
For the provided dataset, this calculation results in a standard deviation of 291.51 liters. Knowing the standard deviation is crucial for determining the confidence interval.
T-Distribution
The t-distribution is a probability distribution that is used when the population standard deviation is unknown and the sample size is small. It's similar to the normal distribution but has heavier tails, which means there's a higher probability for extreme values. As the sample size increases, the t-distribution approaches the normal distribution.In the context of the confidence interval:
  • We use the t-distribution because our sample size is less than 30, which is a general threshold to switch from using the z-distribution (normal) to the t-distribution.
  • The shape of the t-distribution depends on the degrees of freedom, which is \( n - 1 \). In this case, \( n-1 = 19 \).
  • The t-value corresponding to a 95% confidence level for 19 degrees of freedom is approximately 2.093.
This t-value is crucial for computing the margin of error, as it adjusts the interval based on the sample size and variability. Understanding the t-distribution helps in making more accurate estimates of a population parameter using a sample.
Margin of Error
The margin of error provides a range that accounts for the uncertainty inherent in sampling. It defines how much the sample mean could potentially differ from the true population mean. A larger margin of error indicates greater uncertainty, while a smaller one represents more confidence in the sample mean.To calculate the margin of error in the context of a confidence interval:
  • Find the t-value for your confidence level and degrees of freedom. Here, it's 2.093 for a 95% confidence level with 19 degrees of freedom.
  • Use the formula: \( ME = t \cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \) where:
    • \( t \) is the t-value
    • \( s \) is the standard deviation (291.51 liters in this case)
    • \( n \) is the number of observations (20 here)
  • Substitute the known values to calculate ME: \( 2.093 \times \frac{291.51}{\sqrt{20}} = 136.46 \)
This margin of error, 136.46 liters, is added and subtracted from the sample mean (193.5 liters) to find the confidence interval. The final confidence interval informs us that the true mean consumption of alcohol likely falls between 57.04 and 329.96 liters for this sample.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In developing patient appointment schedules, a medical center wants to estimate the mean time that a staff member spends with each patient. How large a sample should be taken if the desired margin of error is two minutes at a \(95 \%\) level of confidence? How large a sample should be taken for a \(99 \%\) level of confidence? Use a planning value for the population standard deviation of eight minutes.

A survey of 611 office workers investigated telephone answering practices, including how often each office worker was able to answer incoming telephone calls and how often incoming telephone calls went directly to voice mail (USA Today, April 21, 2002). A total of 281 office workers indicated that they never need voice mail and are able to take every telephone call. a. What is the point estimate of the proportion of the population of office workers who are able to take every telephone call? b. \(\quad\) At \(90 \%\) confidence, what is the margin of error? c. What is the \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of the population of office workers who are able to take every telephone call?

The National Quality Research Center at the University of Michigan provides a quarterly measure of consumer opinions about products and services (The Wall Street Journal, February 18,2003 ). A survey of 10 restaurants in the Fast Food/Pizza group showed a sample mean customer satisfaction index of \(71 .\) Past data indicate that the population standard deviation of the index has been relatively stable with \(\sigma=5\) a. What assumption should the researcher be willing to make if a margin of error is desired? b. Using \(95 \%\) confidence, what is the margin of error? c. What is the margin of error if \(99 \%\) confidence is desired?

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The travel-to-work time for residents of the 15 largest cities in the United States is reported in the 2003 Information Please Almanac. Suppose that a preliminary simple random sample of residents of San Francisco is used to develop a planning value of 6.25 minutes for the population standard deviation. a. If we want to estimate the population mean travel-to-work time for San Francisco residents with a margin of error of 2 minutes, what sample size should be used? Assume \(95 \%\) confidence. b. If we want to estimate the population mean travel-to-work time for San Francisco residents with a margin of error of 1 minute, what sample size should be used? Assume \(95 \%\) confidence.

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