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Delta Airlines quotes a flight time of 2 hours, 5 minutes for its flights from Cincinnati to Tampa. Suppose we believe that actual flight times are uniformly distributed between 2 hours and 2 hours, 20 minutes. a. Show the graph of the probability density function for flight time. b. What is the probability that the flight will be no more than 5 minutes late? c. What is the probability that the flight will be more than 10 minutes late? d. What is the expected flight time?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. PDF is a horizontal line at 0.05 from 120 to 140. b. Probability is 0.25. c. Probability is 0.5. d. Expected flight time is 130 minutes.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Uniform Distribution

The flight time is uniformly distributed between 2 hours (120 minutes) and 2 hours, 20 minutes (140 minutes). Therefore, we define the range for the uniform distribution as \([a, b] = [120, 140]\).
02

Draw the Probability Density Function (PDF)

The probability density function for a uniform distribution \([a, b]\) is defined as \( f(x) = \frac{1}{b-a} \) for \( a \leq x \leq b \). In this case \( f(x) = \frac{1}{20} = 0.05 \). The PDF is a horizontal line at 0.05 from 120 to 140, forming a rectangle.
03

Calculate Probability of No More Than 5 Minutes Late

"No more than 5 minutes late" implies a flight time of 125 minutes or less. The probability is calculated using the area under the PDF from 120 to 125. \[P(X \leq 125) = \frac{125 - 120}{140 - 120} = \frac{5}{20} = 0.25\]
04

Calculate Probability of Flight Being More Than 10 Minutes Late

"More than 10 minutes late" means a flight time greater than 130 minutes. The probability is calculated using the area under the PDF from 130 to 140. \[P(X > 130) = \frac{140 - 130}{140 - 120} = \frac{10}{20} = 0.5\]
05

Calculate Expected Flight Time

The expected value \(E(X)\) for a uniform distribution is the average of \(a\) and \(b\): \[E(X) = \frac{a + b}{2} = \frac{120 + 140}{2} = 130 \text{ minutes}\].

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Density Function (PDF)
A probability density function (PDF) describes the likelihood of a continuous random variable falling within a certain range of values. For a uniform distribution like the one for Delta's flight time, the PDF is particularly straightforward. The key characteristic of a uniform distribution is that each outcome in the interval is equally likely. This is depicted by a constant horizontal line in the graph of its PDF.

To calculate the PDF for a uniform distribution between two points, say \([a, b]\), the formula used is:
  • \( f(x) = \frac{1}{b-a} \) for \( a \leq x \leq b \).
In our exercise, since the possible flight times range from 120 to 140 minutes, the PDF is \( f(x) = \frac{1}{20} = 0.05 \). The graph features this horizontal line from 120 to 140, making a rectangle shape. This indicates that every flight time within this band is equally probable.
Expected Value
The expected value for a random variable provides a measure of the center of the distribution, often thought of as the 'average' value we'd anticipate. For a uniform distribution, calculating the expected value is straightforward: it is the midpoint of the distribution.

For the uniform distribution covering Delta's flight times, we use:
  • \( E(X) = \frac{a+b}{2} \)
Here, \( a = 120 \) minutes and \( b = 140 \) minutes, leading to:
  • \[ E(X) = \frac{120 + 140}{2} = 130 \text{ minutes} \]
Thus, the expected flight time is 130 minutes. This means, on average, flights are expected to last this long, showing the center of the probability distribution for flight durations.
Probability Calculation
Calculating probabilities with a uniform distribution is intuitive, as it involves computing areas under the PDF. Each interval on the horizontal axis of the graph holds equal likelihood in a uniform distribution.

To find the probability that a flight will be 'no more than 5 minutes late', indicating times up to 125 minutes, we calculate:
  • \[ P(X \leq 125) = \frac{125 - 120}{140 - 120} = \frac{5}{20} = 0.25 \]
This result means there is a 25% chance the flight will take 125 minutes or less.
For being 'more than 10 minutes late', implying flight times over 130 minutes, the probability is:
  • \[ P(X > 130) = \frac{140 - 130}{140 - 120} = \frac{10}{20} = 0.5 \]
Therefore, there's a 50% probability a flight will exceed 130 minutes, highlighting the balance of likelihoods in the interval of a uniform distribution.

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