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In San Francisco, \(30 \%\) of workers take public transportation daily (USA Today, December 21,2005). a. In a sample of 10 workers, what is the probability that exactly three workers take public transportation daily? b. In a sample of 10 workers, what is the probability that at least three workers take public transportation daily?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) The probability is approximately 0.2668. b) The probability is approximately 0.6172.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Situation and Distribution

We are dealing with a binomial distribution because we have a fixed number of trials (10 workers), two possible outcomes (taking public transportation or not), and a constant probability (30%). Let X be the random variable representing the number of workers out of 10 that take public transportation daily, with \( p = 0.3 \) and \( n = 10 \).
02

Calculate Probability for Exactly Three Workers (Part a)

To find the probability that exactly three workers out of 10 take public transportation, use the binomial probability formula: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{n-k} \] where \( k = 3 \), \( n = 10 \), and \( p = 0.3 \). Compute: \[ P(X = 3) = \binom{10}{3} (0.3)^3 (0.7)^7 \] Calculate the binomial coefficient \( \binom{10}{3} = 120 \), then \( (0.3)^3 = 0.027 \), and \( (0.7)^7 = 0.0823543 \). Therefore, \( P(X = 3) = 120 \times 0.027 \times 0.0823543 \approx 0.2668 \).
03

Calculate Probability for At Least Three Workers (Part b)

To find the probability that at least three workers take public transportation, calculate \( P(X \geq 3) \). This is equivalent to \( 1 - P(X < 3) \), which implies we'll calculate \( P(X = 0), P(X = 1), \) and \( P(X = 2) \) and subtract their sum from 1. Use the binomial formula: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{n-k} \] After computing each probability: \( P(X = 0) \approx 0.0282 \), \( P(X = 1) \approx 0.1211 \), \( P(X = 2) \approx 0.2335 \). Sum these probabilities \( \approx 0.0282 + 0.1211 + 0.2335 = 0.3828 \), and subtract from 1: \( 1 - 0.3828 = 0.6172 \).
04

Final Check and Summary

Verify that all calculated probabilities add up correctly based on binomial distribution rules. Ensure no steps were skipped or miscalculated. Conclude: \( P(X = 3) \approx 0.2668 \) and \( P(X \geq 3) \approx 0.6172 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Probability
Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. It is expressed as a number between 0 and 1. A probability of 0 means the event will not happen, and a probability of 1 means the event will definitely happen. For any event, finding its probability involves figuring out how often it happens out of all possible outcomes.

In the context of the given exercise, probability helps us determine the likelihood that a certain number of workers use public transportation daily. This is an example of a binomial probability, where we need to calculate the probability of a fixed number of successful outcomes. For our exercise, we figured out the probabilities of exactly three and at least three workers using public transportation with the use of the binomial probability formula.
  • Use decimal format to express probabilities, like 0.3 for 30%.
  • The sum of all probabilities for a scenario’s possible outcomes equals 1.
  • Fractions or percentages are common ways to express probabilities.
Concept of a Random Variable
A random variable is a mathematical variable that represents a possible outcome of a random event. It can take different values based on the probability of occurrences in an experiment or scenario.

In our exercise, the random variable "X" was defined to represent how many out of the 10 workers take public transportation daily. "X" can take any integer value from 0 to 10. Each of these values is a possible number of workers taking public transport, and each has a corresponding probability which can be calculated.
  • Random variables can be discrete or continuous. "X" is a discrete random variable since it only takes whole numbers.
  • The expected value and variance are important characteristics of random variables.
  • Understanding random variables is key in probabilities, as they help quantify variability in different outcomes.
Exploring the Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient, often represented as \( \binom{n}{k} \), is a central part of the binomial distribution. It illustrates the number of ways to choose "k" successes in "n" trials. This coefficient multiplies with probabilities in the binomial formula.

For example, in our scenario, the binomial coefficient \( \binom{10}{3} \) equals 120. This means there are 120 different ways in which exactly 3 workers could choose to take public transportation out of 10 workers. The formula for calculating a binomial coefficient is: \[\binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\]Where "!" denotes factorial, meaning you multiply a series of descending natural numbers. E.g., \( 10! = 10 \times 9 \times 8 \times \ldots \times 1 \).
  • Binomial coefficients are symmetrical: \( \binom{n}{k} = \binom{n}{n-k} \).
  • This concept is important in combinatorics and probability.
  • In calculating binomial probabilities, each possible outcome is recombined differently, as expressed by the coefficient.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider a binomial experiment with \(n=20\) and \(p=.70\). a. Compute \(f(12)\). b Compute \(f(16)\). c.Compute \(P(x \geq 16)\). d. Compute \(P(x \leq 15)\). e. Compute \(E(x)\). f. Compute \(\operatorname{Var}(x)\) and \(\sigma\) .

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