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An experiment with three outcomes has been repeated 50 times, and it was learned that \(E_{1}\) occurred 20 times, \(E_{2}\) occurred 13 times, and \(E_{3}\) occurred 17 times. Assign probabilities to the outcomes. What method did you use?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Probabilities are assigned using the relative frequency method: \( P(E_1) = 0.4, P(E_2) = 0.26, P(E_3) = 0.34 \).

Step by step solution

01

Define Relative Frequency Method

The relative frequency method assigns probabilities based on the frequency of an occurrence over a given number of trials. The probability of an event is calculated as the number of times the event occurs divided by the total number of trials.
02

Calculate Total Number of Trials

Sum up the occurrences of all outcomes to get the total number of trials. For this experiment, since it was repeated 50 times, the total number of trials is 50.
03

Compute Probability of Event E1

The probability of event \(E_1\), which occurs 20 times, is given by the formula: \( P(E_1) = \frac{20}{50} = 0.4 \).
04

Compute Probability of Event E2

The probability of event \(E_2\), which occurs 13 times, is: \( P(E_2) = \frac{13}{50} = 0.26 \).
05

Compute Probability of Event E3

The probability of event \(E_3\), which occurs 17 times, is: \( P(E_3) = \frac{17}{50} = 0.34 \).
06

Verify Probabilities Sum to Unity

Verify the calculated probabilities sum to 1, ensuring they are valid. \(0.4 + 0.26 + 0.34 = 1.0\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Relative Frequency Method
The Relative Frequency Method is a common approach in probability to estimate how likely an event will happen. It relies on observing how often an event occurs over multiple trials. This method assumes that as more trials are conducted, the observed frequencies of outcomes will reflect their true probabilities. To calculate the probability of any given event using this method, follow these steps:
  • Count the number of times the event occurs across all trials.
  • Divide this count by the total number of trials conducted.
For example, if you flip a coin 100 times and it lands on heads 60 times, the probability of getting heads can be estimated as \[P(\text{Heads}) = \frac{60}{100} = 0.6\]. This probability, derived from observations, presents an empirical view of how likely heads will occur in future trials. Over time, as more trials are conducted, the probability estimate could get closer to the true probability.
Event Occurrence
In probability, understanding event occurrence is crucial. An event is any specific outcome or set of outcomes of a statistical experiment. For instance, when rolling a die, getting a "4" is an event. In any experiment, events occur with a certain frequency.
Events are characterized by how many times they happen within a series of trials. Note that frequency alone doesn't directly tell us the event's probability; we need to consider its frequency relative to the total number of trials.
  • Event Occurrence Frequency: This denotes how often an event is observed.
  • Relative Frequency: This tells us what fraction of the total trials resulted in the event occurring.
Being able to calculate how often an event occurs is directly tied to predicting future scenarios and gauging expected frequencies in limitless trials. This is important in fields like weather forecasting and quality control.
Statistical Experiment
A statistical experiment is any process or study where outcomes are not certain. Each repetition of the experiment can produce different results. These experiments can range from rolling dice to clinical trials. The goal is often to determine or estimate probabilities of different outcomes.
There are three key components in understanding statistical experiments:
  • Outcomes: Possible results of the experiment. For example, flipping a coin yields two outcomes: Heads or Tails.
  • Trials: Each instance of conducting the experiment. If you flip a coin ten times, that constitutes ten trials.
  • Events: Specific outcomes that we are interested in. In our coin flip example, an event may be getting two heads in a row.
Statistical experiments form the backbone of statistical analysis because they allow researchers to gather data, analyze patterns, and make informed conclusions about a larger population or process. Every time someone designs a statistical experiment, understanding these basic components helps in the structured approach to achieving reliable results.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics collected data on the occupations of workers 25 to 64 years old. The following table shows the number of male and female workers (in millions) in each occupation category (Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2002 ). $$\begin{array}{lrr} \text { Occupation } & \text { Male } & \text { Female } \\ \text { Managerial/Professional } & 19079 & 19021 \\ \text { Tech./Sales/Administrative } & 11079 & 19315 \\ \text { Service } & 4977 & 7947 \\ \text { Precision Production } & 11682 & 1138 \\ \text { Operators/Fabricators/Labor } & 10576 & 3482 \\ \text { Farming/Forestry/Fishing } & 1838 & 514 \end{array}$$ a. Develop a joint probability table. b. What is the probability of a female worker being a manager or professional? c. What is the probability of a male worker being in precision production? d. Is occupation independent of gender? Justify your answer with a probability calculation.

A survey conducted by the Pew Internet \& American Life Project showed that \(8 \%\) of Internet users age 18 and older report keeping a blog. Referring to the \(18-29\) age group as young adults, the survey results showed that for bloggers \(54 \%\) are young adults and for non-bloggers \(24 \%\) are young adults (Pew Internet \& American Life Project, July 19,2006 ). a. Develop a joint probability table for these data with two rows (bloggers vs. nonbloggers) and two columns (young adults vs. older adults). b. What is the probability that an Internet user is a young adult? c. What is the probability that an Internet user keeps a blog and is a young adult? d. Suppose that in a follow-up phone survey we contact a respondent who is 24 years old. What is the probability that this respondent keeps a blog?

Assume that we have two events, \(A\) and \(B\), that are mutually exclusive. Assume further that we know \(P(A)=.30\) and \(P(B)=.40\) a. What is \(P(A \cap B) ?\) b. What is \(P(A | B) ?\) c. A student in statistics argues that the concepts of mutually exclusive events and independent events are really the same, and that if events are mutually exclusive they must be independent. Do you agree with this statement? Use the probability information in this problem to justify your answer. d. What general conclusion would you make about mutually exclusive and independent events given the results of this problem?

A study of 31,000 hospital admissions in New York State found that \(4 \%\) of the admissions led to treatment-caused injuries. One-seventh of these treatment-caused injuries resulted in death, and one-fourth were caused by negligence. Malpractice claims were filed in one out of 7.5 cases involving negligence, and payments were made in one out of every two claims. a. What is the probability a person admitted to the hospital will suffer a treatment-caused injury due to negligence? b. What is the probability a person admitted to the hospital will die from a treatmentcaused injury? c. In the case of a negligent treatment-caused injury, what is the probability a malpractice claim will be paid?

In a BusinessWeek/Harris Poll, 1035 adults were asked about their attitudes toward business (BusinessWeek, September 11, 2000). One question asked: "How would you rate large U.S. companies on making good products and competing in a global environment?" The responses were: excellent- \(18 \%\), pretty good \(-50 \%\), only fair- \(26 \%\), poor \(-5 \%\) and don't know/no answer- \(1 \%\) a. What is the probability that a respondent rated U.S. companies pretty good or excellent? b. How many respondents rated U.S. companies poor? c. How many respondents did not know or did not answer?

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