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A survey of magazine subscribers showed that \(45.8 \%\) rented a car during the past 12 months for business reasons, \(54 \%\) rented a car during the past 12 months for personal reasons, and \(30 \%\) rented a car during the past 12 months for both business and personal reasons. a. What is the probability that a subscriber rented a car during the past 12 months for business or personal reasons? b. What is the probability that a subscriber did not rent a car during the past 12 months for either business or personal reasons?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 0.698 b. 0.302

Step by step solution

01

Identify Given Probabilities

From the problem, we know the following probabilities: \( P(B) = 0.458 \) is the probability of renting a car for business, \( P(P) = 0.54 \) is the probability of renting a car for personal reasons, and \( P(B \cap P) = 0.30 \) is the probability of renting a car for both business and personal reasons.
02

Apply the Inclusion-Exclusion Principle

To find the probability that a subscriber rented a car for business or personal reasons, we use the inclusion-exclusion principle: \[P(B \cup P) = P(B) + P(P) - P(B \cap P).\]Substitute the given probabilities: \[P(B \cup P) = 0.458 + 0.54 - 0.30 = 0.698.\]
03

Calculate Probability of Neither Renting a Car

The probability that a subscriber did not rent a car for either business or personal reasons is the complement of the probability calculated in the previous step: \[P(\text{neither}) = 1 - P(B \cup P) = 1 - 0.698 = 0.302.\]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Inclusion-Exclusion Principle
The inclusion-exclusion principle is a fundamental concept in probability theory and set theory. It helps us calculate the probability of the union of two or more events, especially when these events might overlap. In other words, this principle prevents us from double-counting the probability where events intersect or are simultaneous.

In our survey example, subscribers who rented a car for business and personal reasons overlap. To find the probability of renting a car for either reason, use this principle. The formula is:
  • \( P(B \cup P) = P(B) + P(P) - P(B \cap P) \)
Here, \(P(B \cap P)\) is subtracted to adjust the double-counted overlapping portion. This ensures accurate calculation of \(P(B \cup P)\), the probability that a subscriber rented a car for business or personal reasons. By understanding the principle of inclusion-exclusion, we can effectively analyze and resolve similar scenarios. It emphasizes understanding the relationships and intersections between different events for precise probability assessment.
Complement Rule
In probability theory, the complement rule is a useful tool for calculating the probability of the opposite of an event. When we think about an event's probability, we're considering its likelihood. However, sometimes it's more beneficial to consider the likelihood of the event not happening. This is where the complement rule comes into play.

Defined simply, the complement of an event is that the event does not occur, which mathematically, is expressed as:
  • \( P( ext{not } A) = 1 - P(A) \)
In the context of the magazine subscriber survey, after calculating the probability of renting a car for either business or personal reasons (\( P(B \cup P) \)), we wanted to find the probability that a subscriber did not rent a car at all. By leveraging the complement rule, this probability is:
  • \( P( ext{neither}) = 1 - P(B \cup P) \)
This method is handy for quickly estimating the probability of an event's absence when the event's presence probability is known.
Survey Data Analysis
Survey data analysis involves collecting and interpreting data gathered from surveys, a common tool for capturing insights from a specific population or group. When analyzing such data, it's essential to correctly handle overlap and non-overlap of data points to draw meaningful conclusions.

In our example, survey data indicated different probabilities for business and personal car rentals. Effective analysis required accounting for overlapping subscribers who rented cars for both reasons. Understanding these overlaps was critical to accurately determine total, distinct probabilities using techniques like the inclusion-exclusion principle.

When analyzing survey data:
  • Always differentiate between distinct groups and overlapping segments.
  • Use principles from probability theory to ensure accurate calculations.
  • Consider the complement rule for insights into non-participating groups.
By integrating these principles, survey data analysis can be more accurate and insightful, providing clearer understanding of the underlying trends and behaviors within the surveyed population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Assume that we have two events, \(A\) and \(B\), that are mutually exclusive. Assume further that we know \(P(A)=.30\) and \(P(B)=.40\) a. What is \(P(A \cap B) ?\) b. What is \(P(A | B) ?\) c. A student in statistics argues that the concepts of mutually exclusive events and independent events are really the same, and that if events are mutually exclusive they must be independent. Do you agree with this statement? Use the probability information in this problem to justify your answer. d. What general conclusion would you make about mutually exclusive and independent events given the results of this problem?

In a BusinessWeek/Harris Poll, 1035 adults were asked about their attitudes toward business (BusinessWeek, September 11, 2000). One question asked: "How would you rate large U.S. companies on making good products and competing in a global environment?" The responses were: excellent- \(18 \%\), pretty good \(-50 \%\), only fair- \(26 \%\), poor \(-5 \%\) and don't know/no answer- \(1 \%\) a. What is the probability that a respondent rated U.S. companies pretty good or excellent? b. How many respondents rated U.S. companies poor? c. How many respondents did not know or did not answer?

In an article about investment growth, Money magazine reported that drug stocks show powerful long-term trends and offer investors unparalleled potential for strong and steady gains. The federal Health Care Financing Administration supports this conclusion through its forecast that annual prescription drug expenditures will reach \(\$ 366\) billion by 2010 , up from \(\$ 117\) billion in 2000 . Many individuals age 65 and older rely heavily on prescription drugs. For this group, \(82 \%\) take prescription drugs regularly, \(55 \%\) take three or more prescriptions regularly, and \(40 \%\) currently use five or more prescriptions. In contrast, \(49 \%\) of people under age 65 take prescriptions regularly, with \(37 \%\) taking three or more prescriptions regularly and \(28 \%\) using five or more prescriptions (Money, September 2001 ). The U.S. Census Bureau reports that of the 281,421,906 people in the United States, 34,991,753 are age 65 years and older (U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 ). a. Compute the probability that a person in the United States is age 65 or older. b. Compute the probability that a person takes prescription drugs regularly. c. Compute the probability that a person is age 65 or older and takes five or more prescriptions. d. Given a person uses five or more prescriptions, compute the probability that the person is age 65 or older.

Clarkson University surveyed alumni to learn more about what they think of Clarkson. One part of the survey asked respondents to indicate whether their overall experience at Clarkson fell short of expectations, met expectations, or surpassed expectations. The results showed that \(4 \%\) of the respondents did not provide a response, \(26 \%\) said that their experience fell short of expectations, and \(65 \%\) of the respondents said that their experience met expectations (Clarkson Magazine, Summer 2001). a. If we chose an alumnus at random, what is the probability that the alumnus would say their experience surpassed expectations? b. If we chose an alumnus at random, what is the probability that the alumnus would say their experience met or surpassed expectations?

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