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For Exercises 7 through \(27,\) perform these steps. a. State the hypotheses and identify the claim. b. Find the critical value(s). c. Compute the test value. d. Make the decision. e. Summarize the results. Use the traditional method of hypothesis testing unless otherwise specified. Animal Bites of Postal Workers In Cleveland, a random sample of 73 mail carriers showed that 10 had been bitten by an animal during one week. In Philadelphia, in a random sample of 80 mail carriers, 16 had received animal bites. Is there a significant difference in the proportions? Use \(\alpha=0.05 .\) Find the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of the two proportions.

Short Answer

Expert verified
There is no significant difference in bite rates. The 95% CI is (-0.218, 0.092).

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses and Identify the Claim

We are testing if there is a significant difference between the proportions of mail carriers bitten in Cleveland and Philadelphia. Let \( p_1 \) and \( p_2 \) be the proportions of bitten carriers in Cleveland and Philadelphia respectively. The null hypothesis (\( H_0 \)) states that there is no difference between the proportions: \( H_0: p_1 = p_2 \). The alternative hypothesis (\( H_1 \)) states that there is a difference: \( H_1: p_1 eq p_2 \). Our claim is the alternative hypothesis \( H_1: p_1 eq p_2 \).
02

Find the Critical Value(s)

For a two-tailed test with \( \alpha = 0.05 \), the critical z-values correspond to \( \alpha/2 = 0.025 \) in each tail. Using a standard normal distribution table or z-table, we find that the critical values are approximately \( z = \pm 1.96 \).
03

Compute the Test Value

First, calculate the sample proportions: \( \hat{p}_1 = \frac{10}{73} \approx 0.137 \) and \( \hat{p}_2 = \frac{16}{80} = 0.2 \). The pooled proportion \( \hat{p} \) is given by \( \hat{p} = \frac{10 + 16}{73 + 80} = \frac{26}{153} \approx 0.170 \). The standard error (SE) is calculated as:\[ SE = \sqrt{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p}) \left( \frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2} \right) } = \sqrt{0.170(1-0.170)\left( \frac{1}{73} + \frac{1}{80} \right) } \approx 0.064 \]The test statistic (z) is computed by:\[ z = \frac{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2}{SE} = \frac{0.137 - 0.2}{0.064} \approx -0.986 \]
04

Make the Decision

Compare the calculated z-value with the critical z-values. Since \( z = -0.986 \) falls between \(-1.96\) and \(1.96\), we do not reject the null hypothesis. This suggests there is not a significant difference between the proportions of mail carriers bitten in the two cities.
05

Summarize the Results

At the 0.05 level of significance, there is not enough evidence to conclude that there is a significant difference in the proportions of mail carriers bitten by animals in Cleveland and Philadelphia.
06

Calculate the Confidence Interval

To find the \(95\%\) confidence interval for the difference in proportions (\( p_1 - p_2 \)), use the formula:\[ CI = (\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \pm z \cdot SE \]Plug in the values:\[ CI = (0.137 - 0.2) \pm 1.96 \cdot 0.079 \]\[ CI = -0.063 \pm 0.155 \]Thus, the 95% confidence interval is (-0.218, 0.092). This interval includes zero, supporting the decision that there is no significant difference.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Critical Value
In hypothesis testing, the critical value is a point on the scale of the test statistic beyond which we reject the null hypothesis. It helps to establish a boundary for making decisions about whether to accept or reject a hypothesis.
The critical value is determined by the significance level, denoted by \( \alpha \), which represents the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true (Type I error). For a significance level of 0.05 in a two-tailed test, the critical values are typically obtained using statistical tables or software.
In the context of the exercise with animal bites, we have a two-tailed test with \( \alpha = 0.05 \), giving us critical \( z \)-values of approximately \( \pm 1.96 \). This means any test statistic beyond these values would lead us to reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level.
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval provides a range of values, derived from the sample, that is likely to contain the population parameter. Confidence intervals offer an estimation of the unknown parameter and a measure of the reliability of this estimation.
The width of the confidence interval depends on the standard error and the critical value for the desired level of confidence. For a 95% confidence interval, as used in the exercise, the critical value is \( 1.96 \) (from a standard normal distribution), coupled with the calculated standard error.
In our problem, we use the formula for the difference in proportions:
  • \( CI = (\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \pm z \cdot SE \)
Substituting the values, we find:
  • \( CI = (0.137 - 0.2) \pm 1.96 \cdot SE \)
This results in an interval of \((-0.218, 0.092)\), indicating the potential range for the difference in proportions.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) measures the variability of a sample statistic from the actual population parameter. It is a critical component in constructing confidence intervals and calculating test statistics.
In the context of proportions, the standard error is calculated using the pooled sample proportion and involves the sizes of the two independent samples.
We use the formula for proportions:
  • \[ SE = \sqrt{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p}) \left( \frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2} \right) } \]
Where \( \hat{p} \) is the pooled proportion and \( n_1 \), \( n_2 \) are the sample sizes for each group.
In this exercise, our calculations yield \( SE \approx 0.064 \), indicating the expected variation in the sample proportion difference if the null hypothesis is true.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a standardized value that is calculated from sample data during a hypothesis test. It is used to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis by comparing it with the critical value.
For proportion differences, the test statistic formula is:
  • \[ z = \frac{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2}{SE} \]
Where \( \hat{p}_1 \) and \( \hat{p}_2 \) are the sample proportions, and \( SE \) is the standard error calculated earlier.
In our problem, the computed test statistic is approximately \( z = -0.986 \). This value is used to compare against our critical \( z \)-values to derive the conclusion of the hypothesis test. Because it does not exceed the critical values of \( \pm 1.96 \), the null hypothesis is not rejected, indicating no significant difference between the two samples.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Ages of Homes Whiting, Indiana, leads the "Top 100 Cities with the Oldest Houses" list with the average age of houses being 66.4 years. Farther down the list resides Franklin, Pennsylvania, with an average house age of 59.4 years. Researchers selected a random sample of 20 houses in each city and obtained the following statistics. At \(\alpha=0.05,\) can it be concluded that the houses in Whiting are older? Use the \(P\) -value method. $$ \begin{array}{ccc}{} & {\text { Whiting }} & {\text { Franklin }} \\ \hline \text { Mean age } & {62.1 \text { years }} & {55.6 \text { years }} \\\ {\text { Standard deviation }} & {5.4 \text { years }} & {3.9 \text { years }}\end{array} $$

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