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Belief in Haunted Places A random sample of 205 college students was asked if they believed that places could be haunted, and 65 responded yes. Estimate the true proportion of college students who believe in the possibility of haunted places with \(99 \%\) confidence. According to Time magazine, \(37 \%\) of all Americans believe that places can be haunted.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The true proportion of college students who believe in haunted places is estimated to be between 23.13% and 40.29% with 99% confidence.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Known Values

We are given a sample size of 205 college students, out of which 65 believe in haunted places. We need to estimate the true proportion using a confidence interval. The sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is calculated as \( \hat{p} = \frac{65}{205} \approx 0.3171 \).
02

Select Confidence Level

We are asked to provide a 99% confidence interval. The z-score corresponding to a 99% confidence level can be found using statistical tables or calculators to be approximately 2.576.
03

Calculate Standard Error

The standard error of the proportion is given by the formula: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \] Substituting values: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.3171 \times (1-0.3171)}{205}} \approx 0.0336 \]
04

Construct Confidence Interval

The confidence interval for the proportion is calculated using: \[ \hat{p} \pm z \times SE \] Substituting values: \[ 0.3171 \pm 2.576 \times 0.0336 \approx (0.2313, 0.4029) \]
05

Interpret Results

The confidence interval \((0.2313, 0.4029)\) suggests that, with 99% confidence, the true proportion of college students who believe in haunted places is between 23.13% and 40.29%. This interval does not include 37%, indicating a possible difference between the surveyed college students and the general population.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
When working with statistics, the sample proportion is a crucial element. In this example, it helps us understand what fraction of our sample possesses a certain characteristic. Here, the sample consists of 205 college students, and we want to find out how many of them believe in haunted places. Out of these 205 students, 65 believe in haunted places.

To find the sample proportion, we use the formula:
  • \( \hat{p} = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Sample size}} \)
For our scenario, it is:
  • \( \hat{p} = \frac{65}{205} \approx 0.3171 \)
This value indicates that approximately 31.71% of the sampled students believe in haunted places. The sample proportion is a simple yet powerful tool for estimations and forming hypotheses about a population.
Standard Error
The standard error of the sample proportion plays a vital role in determining how much our sample proportion may vary from the true population proportion. It's a measure of the variability or "spread" of the proportion estimate.

To calculate the standard error for a proportion, we use the formula:
  • \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \]
Here, the following values are used:
  • \( \hat{p} = 0.3171 \)
  • \( n = 205 \)
Substituting these values, we get:
  • \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.3171 \times (1-0.3171)}{205}} \approx 0.0336 \]
This estimated standard error tells us about the variability of the sample proportion. A smaller standard error would mean that our sample proportion is a more precise estimate of the true population proportion.
Z-Score
The z-score is a statistical metric that helps us understand how far a given data point is from the mean in terms of standard deviations. This is crucial when constructing confidence intervals, especially when we want to predict the true proportion of a population based on a sample.

In our case, we want a 99% confidence interval, which aligns with the z-score value. The z-score represents the number of standard deviations a result is from the mean.
  • For a 99% confidence level, the z-score is approximately 2.576.
This value suggests that we're looking for an interval that covers 99% of the possible sample proportions, centered around the sample proportion we computed. The z-score helps us determine how wide this interval should be.
Statistical Tables
Statistical tables are extremely handy tools when calculating confidence intervals and other statistical metrics. They contain pre-calculated values for probabilities and statistical tests, which are used to find critical values, like the z-score, without complex computations.

In our scenario, we used the statistical table to find the z-score corresponding to a 99% confidence interval. Without these tables, determining such values would require intricate calculations.

The key takeaways when using statistical tables include:
  • Understand which table to use: Z-table for normal distributions, t-table for t-distributions, etc.
  • Identify the correct row and column based on your requirement
  • Ensure use of the accurate critical value for your desired level of confidence
These tables simplify and streamline the process, allowing us to readily find critical statistical values, making them invaluable in statistical adjustments and inferences.

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