Chapter 4: Problem 35
Leisure Time Exercise Only \(27 \%\) of U.S. adults get enough leisure time exercise to achieve cardiovascular fitness. Choose 3 adults at random. Find the probability that a. All 3 get enough daily exercise b. At least 1 of the 3 gets enough exercise
Short Answer
Expert verified
a) Probability all 3 get enough exercise: 0.0197; b) Probability at least 1 gets enough exercise: 0.6110.
Step by step solution
01
Understanding the Problem
We are dealing with a probability problem involving a binomial experiment where the likelihood of success (an individual getting enough exercise) is constant for each trial. The probability of success for each adult is given as 27%, or 0.27.
02
Define Variables for Binomial Probability
Let the probability that an adult gets enough exercise be \( p = 0.27 \). Therefore, the probability that an adult does not get enough exercise is \( q = 1 - p = 0.73 \). We have \( n = 3 \) trials (adults).
03
Probability Calculation for Part (a) - All 3 Get Enough Exercise
We need to calculate the probability that all 3 adults get enough exercise. This is a binomial probability with \( X = 3 \), \( n = 3 \), and \( p = 0.27 \).The probability is given by:\[P(X=3) = \binom{3}{3} (0.27)^3 (0.73)^0\]Calculating this, we get:\[P(X=3) = 1 \times (0.27)^3 = 0.0197 \]
04
Probability Calculation for Part (b) - At Least 1 Gets Enough Exercise
To find the probability of at least 1 adult getting enough exercise, we can use the complement rule, which is simpler than finding probabilities for 1, 2, and 3 adults separately. We calculate the probability that none (0) of the adults get enough exercise and subtract from 1:\[P(X \geq 1) = 1 - P(X = 0)\]\[P(X = 0) = \binom{3}{0} (0.27)^0 (0.73)^3 = 1 \times 1 \times (0.73)^3 \]Calculating, we get:\[P(X=0) = (0.73)^3 = 0.3890\]Therefore:\[P(X \geq 1) = 1 - 0.3890 = 0.6110\]
05
Conclusion
The probability that all 3 adults get enough exercise is approximately 0.0197, and the probability that at least 1 adult gets enough exercise is approximately 0.6110.
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution. It models the number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials of a binary experiment. A binary experiment is one in which there are two possible outcomes: success or failure. In this context, we're examining whether adults get enough leisure time exercise or not. Each adult considered is an individual trial. For a binomial distribution, we need:
- A fixed number of trials, represented as \( n \). In our exercise scenario, \( n = 3 \) since we are examining the exercise habits of 3 adults.
- A constant probability of success on each trial, represented as \( p \). Here, \( p = 0.27 \), reflecting that 27% of U.S. adults get enough leisure time exercise.
Probability Calculation
Probability in a binomial experiment involves determining the likelihood of a certain number of successes. Using the binomial formula, we calculate these probabilities for specific scenarios. Let's look at two cases:For part (a), we calculated the probability that all 3 adults get enough exercise, which translates to 3 successes. Plugging into the formula: \[P(X=3) = \binom{3}{3} (0.27)^3 (0.73)^0\]This calculation involves:
- Determining \( \binom{3}{3} \), which is 1, as there is only one way to have all 3 successes.
- Raising 0.27 (probability of success) to the 3rd power, resulting in \( (0.27)^3 \).
Complement Rule
The complement rule is a handy technique in probability calculations, particularly when dealing with 'at least one' scenarios. Rather than calculating the probabilities of 1, 2, and 3 successes separately, which can be cumbersome, we focus on its complement, which is usually much easier.In our exercise problem, finding the probability that at least 1 adult gets enough exercise is simplified by first calculating the probability of the complementary scenario: no adult getting enough exercise (0 successes):Using the formula from the previous section:\[P(X=0) = \binom{3}{0} (0.27)^0 (0.73)^3\]This breaks down to:
- \( \binom{3}{0} = 1 \), since there is only one way to have no successes.
- Raising 0.73 (probability of no success) to the power 3, yielding \( (0.73)^3 \).