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Assume that all variables are approximately normally distributed. The number of students who belong to the dance company at each of several randomly selected small universities is shown here. Estimate the true population mean size of a university dance company with \(99 \%\) confidence. $$ \begin{array}{llllllll} 21 & 25 & 32 & 22 & 28 & 30 & 29 & 30 \\ 47 & 26 & 35 & 26 & 35 & 26 & 28 & 28 \\ 32 & 27 & 40 & & & & & \end{array} $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 99% confidence interval for the true mean size of a university dance company is (20.52, 29.06).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to find a 99% confidence interval for the true population mean of the university dance company sizes. We assume that the number of students is normally distributed.
02

Calculate the Sample Mean

First, sum up all the provided student numbers and divide by the count of numbers to find the average. The numbers given are: 21, 25, 32, 22, 28, 30, 29, 30, 47, 26, 35, 26, 35, 26, 28, 28, 32, 27, and 40. Calculate the sum: \( 471 \), then divide by 19 (the number of data points): \[ \bar{x} = \frac{471}{19} = 24.79 \]
03

Calculate the Sample Standard Deviation

To find the sample standard deviation, first find the variance. For each number, subtract the sample mean and square the result, then average these squares (except the division here is by \(n-1\) since it's a sample). Calculate the squares and sum them up, then: \[ s^2 = \frac{1}{18} \sum (x_i - \bar{x})^2 = 41.7 \]\[ s = \sqrt{41.7} = 6.46 \]
04

Find the Critical Value

Since the sample size is less than 30, we use the \(t\)-distribution. With 18 degrees of freedom and 99% confidence, use a \(t\)-table or calculator to find the critical value \(t^*\). For 18 degrees of freedom, \(t^* \approx 2.878\).
05

Calculate the Confidence Interval

The formula for a confidence interval is:\[ \bar{x} \pm t^* \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \]Substituting the values we have:\[ 24.79 \pm 2.878 \frac{6.46}{\sqrt{19}} \approx 24.79 \pm 4.27 \]This gives the interval:\[ (20.52, 29.06) \]
06

Interpret the Confidence Interval

With 99% confidence, the true mean size of a university dance company is between 20.52 and 29.06 students.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
Many natural phenomena, when analyzed, tend to form a pattern that is symmetric and bell-shaped. This is what we call a normal distribution. In statistics, data that follow a normal distribution are often described by their mean and standard deviation. The majority of values cluster around the mean, creating the bell shape.

Features of a normal distribution include:
  • A central peak at the mean.
  • Symmetry around the mean.
  • A predictable spread of data around the mean, dictated by the standard deviation.
Assuming normal distribution is crucial because it allows us to use specific methods to estimate parameters like confidence intervals. In our case, since the number of students is assumed to follow a normal distribution, it means we can rely on methods like the t-distribution for our calculations.
Sample Mean
The sample mean is an estimate of the true population mean. It's a crucial part of inferential statistics because it provides a single value representing the center of the sampled data.

To calculate the sample mean:
  • Add up all the individual data points (here: 21, 25, 32, ..., 40).
  • Divide the sum by the number of data points.
For our example, the sum of the sample data was 471, and the number of data points was 19, giving a sample mean, \(\bar{x} = 24.79\). This value serves as our best estimate of the average size of a university dance company from the provided sample.
Sample Standard Deviation
The sample standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the sample data are from the sample mean. It indicates the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. A larger standard deviation means more variability in the data.

To find the sample standard deviation:
  • Subtract the sample mean from each data point and square the result.
  • Sum these squared differences.
  • Divide the sum by the number of data points minus one (n-1 for samples).
  • Take the square root of the result.
In our example, after calculating, we found the sample standard deviation to be approximately 6.46. This tells us how much the number of students in dance companies typically varies around the mean.
T-Distribution
When estimating confidence intervals, especially with small sample sizes, the t-distribution is more appropriate than the normal distribution. This is because the t-distribution accounts for additional variability introduced by smaller samples.

Characteristics of the t-distribution include:
  • It is similar in shape to the normal distribution but has heavier tails.
  • The degree of freedom, calculated as the sample size minus one, influences its shape.
  • It becomes more like a normal distribution as the sample size increases.
In this problem, we assumed a sample size of 19, resulting in 18 degrees of freedom. This gave us a helpful tool to find the critical value (\(t^\ast \approx 2.878\)), which we used to estimate the confidence interval for the true mean size of a university dance company. The wider tails of the t-distribution provide a more accurate reflection of uncertainty when sample sizes are small.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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