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In the article "Business Employment Dynamics: New data on Gross Job Gains and Losses", J. Spletzer et al. examined gross job gains and losses as a percentage of the average of previous and current employment figures. A simple random sample of 20quarters provided the net percentage gains for jobs as presented on the WeissStats site. Use the technology of your choice to do the following.

Part (a): Decide whether, on average, the net percentage gain for jobs exceeds 0.2. Assume a population standard deviation of 0.42. Apply the one-mean z-test with a 5%significance level.

Part (b): Obtain a normal probability plot, boxplot, histogram and stem-and-leaf diagram of the data.

Part (c): Remove the outliers from the data and then repeat part (a).

Part (d): Comment on the advisability of using thez-test here.

Short Answer

Expert verified

Part (a): The value of the test statistics is 1.01 and the P-value is 0.156.Hence, the data does not provide sufficient evidence to conclude that on average the net percentage gain for jobs exceeds 0.5.

Part (b): On constructing a normal probability plot, we get,

On constructing a boxplot,

On constructing a histogram,

On constructing a stem-and leaf diagram,

Part (c): The value of the test statistics is 1.75 and the P-value is 0.04. Hence, the data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that on average the net percentage gain for jobs exceeds 0.5.

Part (d): From part (b) there is one outlier =-1.1appears in the data.

From part (c), the z-test is calculate after removing the outlier, which provides the test statics 1.01 to 1.75.

Step by step solution

01

Part (a) Step 1. Given information.

Consider the given question,

A simple random sample of 20quarters.

The significance level,α is 0.05.

02

Part (a) Step 2. State the null and alternative hypothesis.

The null hypothesis is given below,

H0:μ=0.5

The data does not provide sufficient evidence to conclude that on average the net percentage gain for jobs exceeds 0.5.

The alternative hypothesis is given below,

Ha:μ>0.2

The data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that on average the net percentage gain for jobs exceeds 0.5.

On computing the value of the test statistics,

Therefore, the value of the test statistics is 1.01 and the P-value is 0.156.

03

Part (a) Step 3. Interpret the result.

If P≤a, then reject the null hypothesis.

Here, the P-value is 0.156 which is greater than the level of significance, that is P=0.156>α=0.05.

Therefore, the null hypothesis is not rejected at 5% level.

Thus, it can be concluded that the results are not statistically significant at 5% level of significance.

On interpreting, we can say that the data does not provide sufficient evidence to conclude that on average the net percentage gain for jobs exceeds 0.5.

04

Part (b) Step 1. Construct a normal probability plot, boxplot of the data.

On constructing a normal probability plot,

From the probability plot, the observations are closer to straight line with one outlier.

On constructing a boxplot,

From the boxplot, it is clear that the distribution of gain is left skewed with one outlier.

05

Part (b) Step 2. Construct a histogram and stem-and-leaf diagram of the data.

On constructing a histogram,

From the histogram, it is clear that the distribution of gain is left skewed with one outlier.

On constructing a stem-and leaf diagram,

Steam-and left of GAIN N=20

Leaf Unit=0.1

From the stem-and leaf diagram, it is clear that the shape of the distribution is left skewed.

06

Part (c) Step 1. State the null and alternative hypothesis and remove the outliers.

The null hypothesis is given below,

H0:μ=0.5

The data does not provide sufficient evidence to conclude that on average the net percentage gain for jobs exceeds 0.5.

The alternative hypothesis is given below,

Ha:μ>0.2

The data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that on average the net percentage gain for jobs exceeds0.5.

On computing the value of the test statistics,

Test of mu=0.2vs >0.2

The assumed standard deviation is 0.42.

Therefore, the value of the test statistics is 1.75 and the P-value is 0.04.

07

Part (c) Step 2. Interpret the result.

If P≤α,then reject the null hypothesis.

Here, the P-value is 0.04 which is less than the level of significance, that is P=0.04>α=0.05

Therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected at 5% level.

Thus, it can be concluded that the results are statistically significant at 5% level of significance.

On interpreting, we can say that the data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that on average the net percentage gain for jobs exceeds 0.5.

08

Part (d) Step 1. Comment on the advisability of using the z-test here.

Consider the results, it is clear that the sample size for the original data is 20.

From part (b) there is one outlier=-1.1appears in the data.

From part (c), the z-test is calculate after removing the outlier, which provides the test statics 1.01 to 1.75.

Hence, the z-test is calculated after removing the outlier change the conclusion of the original data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In each of Exercises 9.41-9.46 ,determine the critical values for a one-mean z-test. For each exercise, draw a graph that illustrates your answer

A right- tailed test withα=0.01

Refer to Exercise 9.15. Explain what each of the following would mean.

(a) Type I error

(b) Type II error

(c) Correct decision

Now suppose that the results of carrying out the hypothesis test lead to nonrejection of the null hypothesis. Classify that conclusion by error type or as a correct decision if in fact the mean cadmium level in Boletus Pinicolamushrooms.

(d) equals the safety limit of 0.5ppm.

(e) exceeds the safety limit of0.5ppm.

We have been provided a sample mean, sample size, and population standard deviation. In the given case, use the one-mean z-test to perform the required hypothesis test at the 5% significance level.

x¯=24,n=15,σ=4,H0:μ=22,Ha:μ>22

Refer to Exercise 9.17. Explain what each of the following would mean.

(a) Type I error.

(b) Type II error.

(c) Correct decision.

Now suppose that the results of carrying out the hypothesis test lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis. Classify that conclusion by error type or as a correct decision if in fact the mean iron intake of all adult females under the age of 51 years.

(d) equals the RDA of 18 mg per day.

(e) is less than the RDA of 18 mg per day.

Betting the Spreads. College basketball, and particularly the NCAA basketball tournament, is a popular venue for gambling, from novices in office betting pools to high rollers. To encourage uniforn betting across teams, Las Vegas oddsmakers assign a point spread to each game. The point spread is the oddsmakers" prediction for th number of points by which the favored team will win. If you bet of the favorite, you win the bet provided the favorite wins by more than the point spread; otherwise, you lose the bet. Is the point spread a good measure of the relative ability of the two teams? H. Stern and B. Mock addressed this question in the paper "College Basketball Upsets: Will a 16-Seed Ever Beat a 1-Seed?" (Chance, Vol. 11(1), pp. 27-31). They obtained the difference between the actual margin of victory and the point spread, called the point-spread error, for 2109 college basketball games. The mean point-spread error was found to be −0.2 point with a standard deviation of10.9 points. For a particular game, a point-spread error of 0 indicates that the point spread was a perfect estimate of the two teams' relative abilities.
(a) If, on average, the oddsmakers are estimating correctly, what is the (population) mean point-spread error?
(b) Use the data to decide, at the 5% significance level, whether the (population) mean point-spread error differs from 0 .
c) Interpret your answer in part (b).

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