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Cell Phones and Brain Cancer In a study of 420,095 cell phone users in Denmark, it was found that 135 developed cancer of the brain or nervous system. For those not using cell phones, there is a 0.000340 probability of a person developing cancer of the brain or nervous system. We therefore expect about 143 cases of such cancers in a group of 420,095 randomly selected people.

a. Find the probability of 135 or fewer cases of such cancers in a group of 420,095 people.

b. What do these results suggest about media reports that suggest cell phones cause cancer of the brain or nervous system?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a.The probability of 135 or fewer people developing cancer and not usingcell phones is equal to 0.2709.

b. Because there is an approximately equal probability of cell phone users and non-cell phone users developing brain cancer, it is wrong on the part of the media to report that cell phones cause cancer of the brain or nervous system.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

In a sample of 420095 people, 143 people developed brain or nervous system cancer and do not use cell phones. The probability of a person developing such cancers is equal to 0.000340.

02

Requirements

Let X (number of successes) denote the number of people who developed cancer and do not use cell phones.

The probability of success is given to be equal to p=0.000340.

The number of trials (n) is equal to 420095.

Here, the sample is a result of 420095 independent trials with a probability of success at each trial equal to 0.000340.

Also,

\(\begin{aligned}{c}np = 420095 \times 0.000340\\ = 142.83\\ > 5\end{aligned}\)

\(\begin{aligned}{c}nq = n(1 - p)\\ = 420095 \times (1 - 0.000340)\\ = 419952.2\\ > 5\end{aligned}\)

Since the above two requirements are met, the normal distribution can be used for approximating the binomial distribution.

03

Continuity correction

It is required to compute the probability of 135 or fewer people who develop cancer and do not use cell phones.

Thus, the interval of continuity correction is computed below:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\left( {x - 0.5,x + 0.5} \right) = \left( {135 - 0.5,135 + 0.5} \right)\\ = \left( {134.5,135.5} \right)\end{aligned}\)

In terms of the bound of the continuity correction interval, the following probability needs to be computed:

\(P\left( {x < {\rm{upper}}\;{\rm{bound}}} \right) = P\left( {x < 135.5} \right)\)

04

Conversion of sample value to z-score

The sample value equal to 135.5 is converted to a z-score as follows:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}z = \frac{{x - np}}{{\sqrt {np(1 - p)} }}\\ = \frac{{135.5 - 420095(0.000340)}}{{\sqrt {420095(0.000340)(1 - 0.000340)} }}\\ = - 0.61\end{aligned}\)

05

Required probability

a.

The probability of 135 or fewer people who develop cancer and do not use cell phones can be calculated using the standard normal table as follows:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}P\left( {x < 135.5} \right) = P\left( {z < - 0.61} \right)\\ = 1 - P\left( {z < 0.61} \right)\\ = 1 - 0.7291\\ = 0.2709\end{aligned}\)

Thus, the probability of 135 or fewer people who develop cancer and do not use cell phones is equal to 0.2709.

06

Interpretation of the probability value

b.

It can be said that the result of 135 or fewer people who develop cancer and do not use cell phones is not significantly low as the probability value is high (not less than 0.05).

Thus, there is not enough evidence to suggest that non-cell phone users do not develop brain cancer. It can be said that cell phone users and non-cell phone users have approximately the same probability of developing brain cancer.

Therefore, it is incorrect for the media to report that cell phones cause brain cancer.

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