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Variation and Prediction Intervals. In Exercises 17鈥20, find the (a) explained variation, (b) unexplained variation, and (c) indicated prediction interval. In each case, there is sufficient evidence to support a claim of a linear correlation, so it is reasonable to use the regression equation when making predictions.

Altitude and Temperature Listed below are altitudes (thousands of feet) and outside air temperatures (掳F) recorded by the author during Delta Flight 1053 from New Orleans to Atlanta. For the prediction interval, use a 95% confidence level with the altitude of 6327 ft (or 6.327 thousand feet).

Altitude (thousands of feet)

3

10

14

22

28

31

33

Temperature (掳F)

57

37

24

-5

-30

-41

-54

Short Answer

Expert verified

a)Explained variation:10626.59

(b) Unexplained variation:68.83577

(c) 95%prediction interval: (38.0,60.4)

Step by step solution

01

Given information

Data are given on two variables 鈥淎ltitude (thousands of feet)鈥 and 鈥淭emperature (in degrees Fahrenheit).鈥

02

Obtain the regression equation

Let x denote the variable 鈥淎ltitude.鈥

Let y denote the variable 鈥淭emperature.鈥

The regression equation of y on x has the following notation:

\(\hat y = {b_0} + {b_1}x\),

where

\({b_0}\)is the intercept term and

\({b_1}\)is the slope coefficient.

The following calculations are done to compute the intercept and the slope coefficient:

The y-intercept is computed below:

\(\begin{array}{c}{b_0} = \frac{{\left( {\sum y } \right)\left( {\sum {{x^2}} } \right) - \left( {\sum x } \right)\left( {\sum {xy} } \right)}}{{n\left( {\sum {{x^2}} } \right) - {{\left( {\sum x } \right)}^2}}}\\ = \frac{{\left( { - 12} \right)\left( {3623} \right) - \left( {141} \right)\left( { - 3126} \right)}}{{7\left( {3623} \right) - {{\left( {141} \right)}^2}}}\\ = 72.49817518\end{array}\)

The slope coefficient is computed below:

\(\begin{array}{c}{b_1} = \frac{{n\left( {\sum {xy} } \right) - \left( {\sum x } \right)\left( {\sum y } \right)}}{{n\left( {\sum {{x^2}} } \right) - {{\left( {\sum x } \right)}^2}}}\\ = \frac{{\left( 7 \right)\left( { - 3126} \right) - \left( {141} \right)\left( { - 12} \right)}}{{7\left( {3623} \right) - {{\left( {141} \right)}^2}}}\\ = - 3.68430656\end{array}\)

Thus, the regression equation becomes

\(\hat y = 72.49817518 - 3.68430656x\).

03

Calculate the explained and unexplained variations

The following table shows the predicted values (upon substituting the values of x in the regression equation):

The mean value of observed y is computed below:

\(\begin{array}{c}\bar y = \frac{{\sum y }}{n}\\ = \frac{{ - 12}}{7}\\ = - 1.71429\end{array}\)

Some important calculations are done below:

The explained variation is \(\sum {{{\left( {\hat y - \bar y} \right)}^2}} = 10626.59\).

Thus, the explained variation is equal to 10626.59.

The unexplained variation is \(\sum {{{\left( {y - \hat y} \right)}^2}} = 68.83577\).

Thus, the unexplained variation is equal to 68.83577.

04

Predicted value at \(\left( {{x_0}} \right)\)

Substitute\({x_0} = 6.327\)in the regression equation to get the predicted value.

\(\begin{array}{c}\hat y = 72.49817518 - 3.68430656x\\ = 72.49817518 - 3.68430656\left( {6.327} \right)\\ = 49.18757\\ \approx 49\end{array}\)

05

Formula of prediction interval

The prediction interval is obtained using the formula

\(\begin{array}{c}PI = \hat y \pm E\\ = \hat y \pm {t_{\frac{\alpha }{2}}}{s_e}\sqrt {1 + \frac{1}{n} + \frac{{n{{\left( {{x_0} - \bar x} \right)}^2}}}{{n\left( {\sum {{x^2}} } \right) - {{\left( {\sum x } \right)}^2}}}} \end{array}\).

06

Degrees of freedom and critical value

The following formula is used to compute the level of significance.

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{Confidence}}\;{\rm{Leve}}l = 95\% \\100\left( {1 - \alpha } \right) = 95\\1 - \alpha = 0.95\\\alpha = 0.05\end{array}\)

The degrees of freedom for computing the t-multiplier are shownbelow:

\(\begin{array}{c}df = n - 2\\ = 7 - 2\\ = 5\end{array}\)

The two-tailed value of the t-multiplier for the level of significance (0.05) and degrees of freedom (5) is 2.5706.

07

Standard error of the estimate

The standard error of the estimate is computed below:

\(\begin{array}{c}{s_e} = \sqrt {\frac{{\sum {{{\left( {y - \hat y} \right)}^2}} }}{{n - 2}}} \\ = \sqrt {\frac{{68.83577}}{{7 - 2}}} \\ = 3.710411\end{array}\)

08

Value of \(\bar x\)

The value of \(\bar x\)is computed as follows:

\(\begin{array}{c}\bar x = \frac{{\sum x }}{n}\\ = \frac{{141}}{7}\\ = 20.14286\end{array}\)

09

Calculate the prediction interval

Substitute the values obtained above to calculate the margin of error (E).

\(\begin{array}{c}E = {t_{\frac{\alpha }{2}}}{s_e}\sqrt {1 + \frac{1}{n} + \frac{{n{{\left( {{x_0} - \bar x} \right)}^2}}}{{n\left( {\sum {{x^2}} } \right) - {{\left( {\sum x } \right)}^2}}}} \\ = \left( {2.5706} \right)\left( {3.710411} \right)\sqrt {1 + \frac{1}{7} + \frac{{7{{\left( {6.327 - 20.14286} \right)}^2}}}{{7\left( {3623} \right) - \left( {19881} \right)}}} \\ = 11.23167664\end{array}\)

Thus, the prediction interval (PI) becomes as shown:

\(\begin{array}{c}PI = \left( {\hat y - E,\hat y + E} \right)\\ = \left( {49.18757 - 11.23167664,49.18757 + 11.23167664} \right)\\ = (37.9559,60.4192)\\ \approx \left( {38.0,60.4} \right)\end{array}\)

Therefore, the 95% prediction interval for the temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) for the given altitude of 6.327 is (38.0, 60.4).

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