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Chantix (varenicline) tablets are used as an aid to help people stop smoking. In a clinical trial, 129 subjects were treated with Chantix twice a day for 12 weeks, and 16 subjects experienced abdominal pain (based on data from Pfizer, Inc.). If someone claims that more than \(8 \%\) of Chantix users experience abdominal pain, that claim is supported with a hypothesis test conducted with a 0.05 significance level. Using 0.18 as an alternative value of \(p,\) the power of the test is \(0.96 .\) Interpret this value of the power of the test.

Short Answer

Expert verified
There is a 96% chance that the test will correctly reject the null hypothesis if the true proportion of Chantix users experiencing abdominal pain is 18%.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Hypothesis Test

The claim is that more than 8% ( p_0 = 0.08 ) of Chantix users experience abdominal pain. This is a hypothesis test problem where we need to determine if the data supports this claim.
02

Define Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The null hypothesis ( H_0 ) is that the proportion of Chantix users experiencing abdominal pain is 8% ( p_0 = 0.08 ). The alternative hypothesis ( H_a ) is that the proportion is more than 8%. Formally: H_0: p = 0.08 H_a: p > 0.08
03

Power of the Test

The power of a test is the probability that it correctly rejects the null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true. Here, the power is given as 0.96 when the alternative proportion ( p ) is 0.18.
04

Interpretation

A power of 0.96 means that there is a 96% chance that the test will correctly reject the null hypothesis ( H_0 ) in favor of the alternative hypothesis ( H_a ) when the true proportion is 0.18.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis (often denoted as H_0) is a statement that assumes there is no effect or no difference. It represents the default or baseline assumption. In the context of the given exercise, the null hypothesis is that the proportion of Chantix users experiencing abdominal pain is 8% (p = 0.08). The null hypothesis serves as the statement we aim to test against. Here, we start by assuming H_0: p = 0.08, meaning only 8% of the users experience abdominal pain. The goal of hypothesis testing is to determine whether there is enough evidence to reject this assumption in favor of an alternative hypothesis.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis (denoted as H_a) is a statement that contradicts the null hypothesis. It represents what we want to prove. In the given exercise, the alternative hypothesis suggests that more than 8% of Chantix users experience abdominal pain. Formally, it is written as: H_a: p > 0.08. The alternative hypothesis is crucial because it defines the direction of the test. Here, it indicates a greater than scenario. When analyzing data, if the results strongly support the alternative hypothesis, we may reject the null hypothesis in favor of H_a.
Power of a Test
The power of a test is the probability that the test will correctly reject the null hypothesis when a specific alternative hypothesis is true. It measures the test's ability to detect an effect when there is one. In the exercise, the power of the test is 0.96 at an alternative value of p = 0.18. This means there is a 96% chance the test will correctly identify that more than 8% of Chantix users experience abdominal pain if the true proportion is indeed 18%. High power is desired in hypothesis testing as it reduces the likelihood of a Type II error (failing to reject a false null hypothesis). Improving the test's power can be achieved by increasing the sample size, increasing the significance level, or using a higher effect size.
Significance Level
The significance level (denoted as alpha, α) is the threshold at which we decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. It represents the probability of making a Type I error, which occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis. Common significance levels are 0.05, 0.01, and 0.10. In this exercise, a 0.05 significance level is used, meaning there is a 5% risk of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis (H_0). When conducting hypothesis testing, choosing an appropriate significance level is critical as it influences the balance between Type I and Type II errors. A lower alpha reduces the chance of a Type I error but increases the risk of a Type II error and vice versa.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Use a significance level of \(\alpha=0.05\) and use the given information for the following: a. State a conclusion about the null hypothesis. (Reject \(H_{0}\) or fail to reject \(H_{0 .}\) ) b. Without using technical terms or symbols, state a final conclusion that addresses the original claim. Original claim: The standard deviation of pulse rates of adult males is more than 11 bpm. The hypothesis test results in a \(P\) -value of 0.3045.

Type I and Type II Errors provide statements that identify the type I error and the type II error that correspond to the given claim. (Although conclusions are usually expressed in verbal form, the answers here can be expressed with statements that include symbolic expressions such as \(p=0.1 .\) ) The proportion of people who require no vision correction is less than 0.25.

Assume that a simple random sample has been selected and test the given claim. Unless specified by your instructor, use either the P-value method or the critical value method for testing hypotheses. Identify the null and alternative hypotheses, test statistic, P-value (or range of P-values), or critical value(s), and state the final conclusion that addresses the original claim. Listed below are the lead concentrations (in \(\mu \mathrm{g} / \mathrm{g}\) ) measured in different Ayurveda medicines. Ayurveda is a traditional medical system commonly used in India. The lead concentrations listed here are from medicines manufactured in the United States (based on data from "Lead, Mercury, and Arsenic in US and Indian Manufactured Ayurvedic Medicines Sold via the Internet," by Saper et al., Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 300, No. 8). Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that the mean lead concentration for all such medicines is less than \(14 \mu \mathrm{g} / \mathrm{g}\).\(\begin{array}{cccccccccc}3.0 & 6.5 & 6.0 & 5.5 & 20.5 & 7.5 & 12.0 & 20.5 & 11.5 & 17.5\end{array}\)

Test the given claim. Identify the null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, test statistic, P-value, or critical value(s), then state the conclusion about the null hypothesis, as well as the final conclusion that addresses the original claim. Use the P-value method unless your instructor specifies otherwise. Use the normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution, as described in Part 1 of this section. Data Set 27 "M\&M Weights" in Appendix B lists data from \(100 \mathrm{M\&Ms}\), and \(27 \%\) of them are blue. The Mars candy company claims that the percentage of blue M\&Ms is equal to \(24 \%\). Use a 0.05 significance level to test that claim. Should the Mars company take corrective action?

Identify the indicated values or interpret the given display. Use the normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution, as described in Part I of this section. Use a 0.05 significance level and answer the following: a. Is the test two-tailed, left-tailed, or right-tailed? b. What is the test statistic? c. What is the \(P\) -value? d. What is the null hypothesis, and what do you conclude about it? e. What is the final conclusion? The drug Lipitor (atorvastatin) is used to treat high cholesterol. In a clinical trial of Lipitor, 47 of 863 treated subjects experienced headaches (based on data from Pfizer). The accompanying TI-83/84 Plus calculator display shows results from a test of the claim that fewer than \(10 \%\) of treated subjects experience headaches.

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