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Do the following: If the requirements of \(n p \geq 5\) and \(n q \geq 5\) are both satisfied, estimate the indicated probability by using the normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution; if \(n p < 5\) or n \(q < 5,\) then state that the normal approximation should not be used. With \(n=8\) births and \(p=0.512\) for a boy, find \(P\) (exactly 5 boys).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The normal approximation should not be used.

Step by step solution

01

- Determine Values of n, p, and q

Given: number of trials (births), \(n = 8\), probability of success (boy), \(p = 0.512\). Calculate \(q\) as \(1 - p\). So, \(q = 1 - 0.512 = 0.488\).
02

- Check Normal Approximation Conditions

Check if \(np \geq 5\) and \(nq \geq 5\). Calculate: \(np = 8 \times 0.512 = 4.096\) and \(nq = 8 \times 0.488 = 3.904\). Since both \(np < 5\) and \(nq < 5\), the normal approximation should not be used.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution used to model the number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials, with a constant probability of success in each trial. In our example, we're looking at the number of boys (successes) in 8 births (trials), with the probability of having a boy being 0.512. This means, if we were to repeat these 8 births multiple times, the distribution would tell us the probability of obtaining any specific number of boys.
Key properties of the binomial distribution include:
  • The number of trials, denoted by \( n \)
  • The probability of success in a single trial, denoted by \( p \)
  • The probability of failure in a single trial, \( q = 1 - p \)
The probability mass function (PMF) for a binomial distribution is given by: \[ P(X = k) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where \( k \) is the number of successes. This is essential for calculating exact probabilities in binomial distributions.
Probability Calculation
Calculating probabilities in a binomial distribution involves determining the likelihood of a given number of successes out of a certain number of trials. In our scenario, we want to find the probability of having exactly 5 boys out of 8 births.
To calculate this manually, we utilize the PMF of the binomial distribution: \[ P(X = 5) = {8 \choose 5} (0.512)^5 (0.488)^3 \]
where \( {8 \choose 5} \) represents the binomial coefficient. Since these calculations can get cumbersome, statistical software or calculators are often used.
Statistical Conditions
When approximating a binomial distribution with a normal distribution, certain conditions must be met to ensure accuracy. These include:
  • \( n p \geq 5 \): Ensures there are enough expected successes
  • \( n q \geq 5 \): Ensures there are enough expected failures
If either of these conditions is not satisfied, using the normal approximation could lead to significant errors. In our case, with \( n = 8 \), \( p = 0.512 \), and \( q = 0.488 \), we find: \[ n p = 8 \times 0.512 = 4.096 \] \[ n q = 8 \times 0.488 = 3.904 \] Since both values are less than 5, this indicates that the normal approximation is not suitable for our problem.
Normal Distribution
A normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution characterized by its bell-shaped curve, which is symmetric around the mean. It is defined by its mean (\( \mu \)) and standard deviation (\( \sigma \)).
When certain conditions are met (\( np \geq 5 \) and \( nq \geq 5 \)), a binomial distribution can be approximated by a normal distribution for simpler computations. The normal approximation to the binomial distribution uses the following parameters:
  • Mean: \( \mu = n p \)
  • Standard deviation: \( \sigma = \sqrt{n p q} \)
Essentially, we translate the binomial problem into the standard normal form (Z-score), given by:
\[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]
This Z-score can then be used to find probabilities using standard normal distribution tables. However, as illustrated in our example, the calculated values of \(np\) and \(nq\) did not meet the required conditions, making the normal approximation invalid.

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