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Determine whether the given procedure results in a binomial distribution (or a distribution that can be treated as binomial. For those that are not binomial, identify at least one requirement that is not satisfied. In a survey sponsored by TGI Friday's, 1000 different adult respondents were randomly selected without replacement, and each was asked if they investigate dates on social media before meeting them. Responses consist of "yes" or "no."

Short Answer

Expert verified
The procedure does not result in a binomial distribution because the trials are not independent (sampling without replacement).

Step by step solution

01

Define conditions for a Binomial Distribution

A distribution can be considered binomial if it meets these four conditions: 1. There are a fixed number of trials (n). 2. Each trial has two possible outcomes (success and failure). 3. The probability of success (p) is the same for each trial. 4. The trials are independent.
02

Identify the Fixed Number of Trials

In this survey, 1000 different adult respondents are sampled. This represents the fixed number of trials, so here, n = 1000.
03

Determine the Two Possible Outcomes

The question asks if respondents investigate dates on social media before meeting them, with possible answers being 'yes' or 'no'. There are exactly two outcomes.
04

Check if Probability of Success is Constant

Since the survey responses are based on individual opinions, one might assume that the probability of answering 'yes' or 'no' is constant for every respondent.
05

Verify Independence of Trials

The respondents are selected without replacement from the population. This violates the independence condition because the outcome of one trial can influence the probability of the remaining trials.
06

Conclusion

Since the condition of independence of trials is not met (due to sampling without replacement), the distribution of responses does not strictly follow a binomial distribution. One way to address this is to use the binomial approximation to the hypergeometric distribution, which is justified when the sample size is much smaller than the population size. However, this survey does not fully meet the binomial conditions.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Fixed Number of Trials
In order for a distribution to be considered binomial, one of the key requirements is having a fixed number of trials. This means you have a set number of attempts or tests, known as 'n'. For example, in the original exercise, 1000 different adult respondents were sampled. Here, 'n' is 1000. Each of these 1000 trials represents an individual person being asked a question. Once you decide on the number of trials at the beginning, this number does not change.
Whether you are tossing a coin 100 times or sampling 1000 people, the total 'number' should remain constant throughout the procedure.
Two Possible Outcomes
Another fundamental component of a binomial distribution is having exactly two possible outcomes for each trial. These outcomes are often referred to as 'success' and 'failure'. In the context of our exercise, the two possible outcomes when respondents are asked if they investigate dates on social media are either 'yes' (success) or 'no' (failure). This binary nature simplifies the modeling of probabilities, making it easy to calculate how often each outcome might occur.
The presence of only two outcomes helps us in applying the binomial distribution without confusion regarding the nature of the results.
Probability of Success
The probability of success, denoted as 'p', must remain constant throughout all the trials when dealing with a binomial distribution. This means that each time you perform a trial, the chance of success should be the same. In the exercise, if each respondent had an equal and unchanging probability of answering 'yes', the probability of success would be consistent.
For example, if you flip a fair coin, the probability of getting heads (success) is always 0.5, no matter how many times you flip it. In real surveys, ensuring a constant probability can be difficult, but it is crucial for the binomial model.
Independence of Trials
Finally, for a distribution to be binomial, each trial must be independent of the others. This means the outcome of one trial should not influence or change the outcome of another trial. In the original exercise, respondents are chosen without replacement. This means once a respondent is selected, they are not put back into the pool of potential respondents.
This lack of replacement violates the independence condition because the outcome of one trial affects the probabilities of the subsequent trials. When trials are not independent, the binomial model becomes less accurate, and you may need to consider other approaches, like the hypergeometric distribution, as mentioned in the solution.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Assume that different groups of couples use the XSORT method of gender selection and each couple gives birth to one baby. The XSORT method is designed to increase the likelihood that a baby will be a girl, but assume that the method has no effect, so the probability of a girl is \(0.5 .\) Assume that the groups consist of 16 couples. a. Find the mean and standard deviation for the numbers of girls in groups of 16 births. b. Use the range rule of thumb to find the values separating results that are significantly low or significantly high. c. Is the result of 11 girls a result that is significantly high? What does it suggest about the effectiveness of the XSORT method?

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