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Express all probabilities as fractions. As of this writing, the Mega Millions lottery is run in 44 states. Winning the jackpot requires that you select the correct five different numbers between 1 and 75 and, in a separate drawing, you must also select the correct single number between 1 and \(15 .\) Find the probability of winning the jackpot. How does the result compare to the probability of being struck by lightning in a year, which the National Weather Service estimates to be \(1 / 960,000 ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of winning the Mega Millions jackpot is \( \frac{1}{258,890,850} \). It is much less likely than being struck by lightning, whose probability is \( \frac{1}{960,000} \).

Step by step solution

01

Find the Total Number of Possible Combinations of Five Numbers

First, calculate the total number of combinations of selecting 5 numbers out of 75. This is given by the combination formula, which is \[ \binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!} \] Here, \( n = 75 \) and \( r = 5 \). So the number of combinations is \[ \binom{75}{5} = \frac{75!}{5!(75-5)!} = \frac{75 \times 74 \times 73 \times 72 \times 71}{5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1} = 17,259,390 \]
02

Calculate the Number of Possible Combinations for the Single Number

Since you need to select 1 correct number between 1 and 15, there are a total of 15 possible choices.
03

Calculate the Total Number of Possible Combinations for Winning the Jackpot

To win the jackpot, you must get both the set of 5 numbers and the single number correct. Therefore, we multiply the number of ways to choose 5 numbers out of 75 by the number of ways to choose 1 number out of 15: \[ 17,259,390 \times 15 = 258,890,850 \]
04

Calculate the Probability of Winning

The probability of winning the jackpot is the ratio of the number of successful outcomes (which is 1, since there is only one winning combination) to the total number of possible outcomes. Thus, the probability is: \[ \frac{1}{258,890,850} \]
05

Compare the Probability of Winning the Jackpot to Being Struck by Lightning

The probability of being struck by lightning in a year is \( \frac{1}{960,000} \). Comparing the two probabilities: \[ \frac{1}{258,890,850} < \frac{1}{960,000} \] This shows that the probability of winning the Mega Millions jackpot is significantly lower than the probability of being struck by lightning.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics focused on counting, arrangement, and combination of objects. In our exercise, we use combinatorics to calculate the number of ways to select 5 numbers out of 75. This is done using the combination formula, denoted as \( \binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!} \). Here, \( n \) represents the total number of items, and \( r \) represents the number of items to choose. For instance, to find the number of ways to choose 5 out of 75 numbers, we calculate \( \binom{75}{5} = \frac{75!}{5!(75-5)!} = 17,259,390 \). This tells us that there are 17,259,390 possible combinations of selecting 5 numbers from 75.
Comparative Probability
Comparative probability helps us understand the likelihood of two events occurring relative to each other. In the exercise, we compare the probability of winning the Mega Millions jackpot with being struck by lightning. The lightning strike probability is estimated by the National Weather Service to be \( \frac{1}{960,000} \). By comparing this to the lottery winning probability \( \frac{1}{258,890,850} \), it's clear that winning the lottery is significantly less likely than being struck by lightning. This comparison makes it easy to grasp just how rare winning the jackpot really is.
Statistics Example
The example provided in the exercise is a practical application of statistics. It demonstrates how to calculate and interpret probabilities. We calculate the total number of possible outcomes (258,890,850) and then find the probability of the singular winning outcome, given as \( \frac{1}{258,890,850} \). This real-world example helps illustrate the concepts of probability theory and combinatorics, aiding in better understanding and application.
Probability Theory
Probability theory is the mathematical framework for quantifying uncertainty. One of its primary tools is the calculation of probabilities, which measure the chance that a specific event will occur. In our exercise, we use probability theory to determine the likelihood of winning the lottery, expressed as \( \frac{1}{258,890,850} \). This probability is the ratio of successful outcomes (one winning combination) to the total possible outcomes (258,890,850 combinations). Understanding probability theory helps us make informed predictions about various events, ranging from lottery winnings to weather phenomena.

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