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The marketing research department of an instant-coffee company conducted a survey of married men to determine the proportion of married men who prefer their brand. Of the 100 men in the random sample, 20 prefer the company's brand. Use a \(95 \%\) confidence interval to estimate the proportion of all married men who prefer this company's brand of instant coffee. Interpret your answer.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all married men who prefer this brand of coffee is approximately from 12.16% to 27.84%.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the sample proportion

The sample proportion (\(p\)) is calculated by dividing the number of successes (men who prefer the company's brand) by the number of observations in the sample. This gives \(p = \frac{20}{100} = 0.20\).
02

Calculate the standard error of the proportion

The standard error is a measure of the statistical accuracy of an estimate, equal to the standard deviation of the theoretical distribution of a large population of such estimates. For proportions, the standard error can be calculated as \(SE = \sqrt{ \frac{p(1-p)}{n}} = \sqrt{ \frac{0.20 * 0.80}{100}} = 0.040\).
03

Determine the z-score for the desired confidence level

A 95% confidence interval corresponds to a z-score of approximately 1.96. This value can be found in a standard z-table or it's a commonly memorized value.
04

Calculate the margin of error

The margin of error for a proportion is calculated as \(E = z * SE\), where \(z\) is the z-score for the desired level of confidence, and \(SE\) is the standard error calculated in Step 2. Plugging in the values gives \(E = 1.96 * 0.040 = 0.0784\).
05

Calculate the confidence interval

The confidence interval can be obtained by adding and subtracting the margin of error from the sample proportion. This leads to the interval \((0.20 - 0.0784, 0.20 + 0.0784) = (0.1216, 0.2784)\).
06

Interpretation of the confidence interval

The resulting interval should be interpreted as follows: we can be 95% sure that the proportion of all married men who prefer this brand of instant coffee is between approximately 12.16% and 27.84%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
Understanding the sample proportion is crucial when working with statistics, especially in the context of market research or surveys. In the instance of the instant-coffee company survey, the sample proportion represents the percentage of subjects in the sample that exhibit the characteristic of interest—in this case, married men who prefer the company's brand of coffee. Calculating this is straightforward: divide the number of married men who prefer the brand (20 men) by the total number of men surveyed (100 men), which results in a sample proportion (\( p \)) of 0.20, or 20%. This figure provides the starting point for estimating the preferences of the larger population of married men.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) of the sample proportion tells us about the variability of the proportion that we would expect to see from one sample to another. It's an estimate of the precision with which the sample proportion approximates the true population proportion. For the given survey, the standard error is calculated using the formula \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \), where \( n \) is the sample size. With \( p = 0.20 \) and \( n = 100 \), the standard error is 0.040. A smaller standard error indicates a more precise estimate, meaning there's less variability between samples, thus increasing the reliability of the sample proportion as a statistic.
Z-Score
In statistical analysis, a z-score is a numerical measurement used in the context of standard deviation to describe the position of a raw score in relation to the mean of a group of scores. It's a way to account for how many standard deviations away from the mean a point is in the normal distribution. For constructing a confidence interval, such as the one needed in our coffee brand example, we use the z-score to determine how far out from the sample proportion our interval should extend to include the desired proportion of the population. For a 95% confidence interval, the z-score is approximately 1.96, indicating that the interval will extend 1.96 standard errors from the sample proportion to capture the center 95% of the distribution of sample proportions.
Margin of Error
The margin of error represents the extent of the range around the sample proportion that we expect the true population proportion to fall within. It is computed by multiplying the z-score by the standard error (\( E = z * SE \)). In this case study, a z-score of 1.96 and a standard error of 0.040 gives us a margin of error of 0.0784. The margin of error is a critical component of the confidence interval, highlighting the uncertainty inherent in estimating the population proportion. Essentially, it provides a buffer of statistical 'wiggle room' around our sample proportion.
Statistical Accuracy
Statistical accuracy involves the closeness of a computed value, such as a sample proportion, to the true value it represents (the true population proportion, in this case). While absolute accuracy is often unattainable, statisticians use measures like the confidence interval to estimate the range within which they can expect the true population value to lie, given their sample data—and with what level of confidence. In the example provided, the statement that the true proportion of married men preferring the coffee brand is likely between 12.16% and 27.84% is made with a 95% level of confidence. This means that if we repeated this sampling process many times, we would expect the true proportion to fall within our calculated interval 95% of the time.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Bright-Lite claims that its 60 -watt light bulb burns with a length of life that is approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation of 81 hours. A sample of 101 bulbs had a variance of \(8075 .\) Is this sufficient evidence to reject Bright-Lite's claim in favor of the alternative,"the standard deviation is larger than 81 hours," at the 0.05 level of significance?

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