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According to a December 2008 Self magazine online poll, \(66 \%\) responded "Yes" to "Do you want to relive your college days?" What is the probability that exactly half of the next 10 randomly selected poll participants also respond " Yes" to this question?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that exactly half of the next 10 randomly selected poll participants also respond 'Yes' to this question is approximately 0.200 or 20.0%.

Step by step solution

01

Apply The Binomial Probability Formula

The formula for binomial probability is given by \(P_{X}(k) = C_{n}^{k} \cdot (p^k) \cdot ((1-p)^{n-k})\). In this case, 'n' (the number of trials) is 10, 'k' (the number of success) is 5, and 'p' (the probability of success) is 0.66.
02

Calculate The Binomial Coefficient

In the formula, \(C_{n}^{k}\) is the binomial coefficient. It can be found with \(C_{n}^{k}= \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\) where the '!' denotes a factorial. By substituting 'n' with 10 and 'k' with 5, \(C_{10}^{5}= \frac{10!}{5!(10-5)!} = 252\). Therefore, the binomial coefficient is 252.
03

Substitute The Values

Substitute \(C_{10}^{5} = 252\), 'p' with 0.66, 'n' with 10 and 'k' with 5 into the binomial probability formula. Therefore, the formula becomes \(P_{X}(5) = 252 \cdot (0.66^5) \cdot ((1-0.66)^{10-5})\).
04

Calculate The Result

Perform the operations and the result is approximately 0.200, or 20.0% when expressed as a percentage.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient is a key concept when dealing with binomial probabilities. It's often represented as \(C_{n}^{k}\) or sometimes as \(\binom{n}{k}\). This value essentially counts the number of ways to choose \(k\) successes in \(n\) trials. In simple terms, it tells us how many different combinations of \(k\) outcomes can occur in \(n\) trials.
The binomial coefficient is calculated using the formula:
  • \(C_{n}^{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\)
Here, "!" signifies factorial, which is the product of all positive integers up to a certain number. For example, \(5! = 5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1 = 120\).
In the exercise given, you find \(C_{10}^{5}\) by substituting \(n = 10\) and \(k = 5\), yielding \(252\). This means there are 252 different ways to choose 5 participants who will respond "Yes" out of 10.
Understanding binomial coefficients helps us to grasp the more complex ideas behind probability distributions and combinations.
Binomial Probability Formula
The study of binomial probability revolves around determining the likelihood of a specific number of successful outcomes. The general formula used is:
  • \( P_{X}(k) = C_{n}^{k} \cdot (p^{k}) \cdot ((1-p)^{n-k}) \)
This formula integrates the following:
  • \(C_{n}^{k}\) - the binomial coefficient, which we've discussed earlier.
  • \(p\) - the probability of success on an individual trial (in this case, 0.66 or 66%).
  • \((1-p)\) - the probability of failure on an individual trial.
  • \(k\) - the number of successful trials.
  • \(n\) - the total number of trials.
The formula takes into account both the number of ways to achieve \(k\) successes and the probability that \(k\) successes actually occur. This is why the binomial probability involves multiplying the binomial coefficient by the probabilities of success and failure raised to the appropriate powers. The result gives the likelihood of observing exactly \(k\) successes in \(n\) trials.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation using the binomial probability formula is systematic. Start by identifying all components needed for the formula. Let's revisit the formula from the exercise:
  • \( P_{X}(5) = C_{10}^{5} \cdot (0.66^5) \cdot ((1-0.66)^{5}) \)
To calculate the probability:
  1. Determine \(C_{10}^{5}\), which is 252 using the binomial coefficient formula.
  2. Compute \((0.66)^5\). This represents the probability of 5 successes, calculated as \(0.66 \times 0.66 \times 0.66 \times 0.66 \times 0.66\).
  3. Calculate \((0.34)^5\), which accounts for the probability of 5 failures, since 1 - 0.66 = 0.34.
  4. Multiply these values: 252 by the probability of success and by the probability of failure.
Executing this gives the final probability of exactly 5 successes in 10 trials as approximately 0.200. So, there's a 20% chance exactly half of the surveyed individuals will fondly reminisce about their college days.

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