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Suppose that \(P(\mathrm{A})=0.3, \quad P(\mathrm{B})=0.4,\) and a \(P(\mathrm{A} \text { and } \mathrm{B})=0.12\) a. What is \(P(A | B) ?\) b. What is \(P(B | A) ?\) c. Are \(A\) and \(B\) independent?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. \(P(A | B) = 0.30\), b. \(P(B | A) = 0.40\), c. Yes, A and B are independent.

Step by step solution

01

Calculation of Conditional Probabilities

Using the formula for conditional probability, first calculate \(P(A | B)\) which equals to \(P(A ∩ B) / P(B)\). Given that \(P(A ∩ B) = 0.12\) and \(P(B) = 0.4\), this results in \(P(A | B) = 0.12 / 0.4 = 0.30\). For the calculation of \(P(B | A)\) using the similar formula, you get \(P(B | A) = P(B ∩ A) / P(A)\). With \(P(B ∩ A) = 0.12\) and \(P(A) = 0.3\), this results in \(P(B | A) = 0.12 / 0.3 = 0.40\).
02

Checking for Independence

To check if events A and B are independent, compare the result of \(P(A)P(B)\) with \(P(A ∩ B)\). Given that \(P(A) = 0.3\), \(P(B) = 0.4\), and \(P(A ∩ B) = 0.12\), we first calculate \(P(A)P(B) = 0.3*0.4 = 0.12\). Since that is equal to \(P(A ∩ B)\), we can conclude that the events A and B are independent.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Statistics
At its core, statistics is about collecting, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting data. It's a discipline that encompases a variety of methods to process and understand the information collected from surveys, experiments, or observational studies. In the context of probability, statistics is often focused on determining the likelihood of future events based on historical data. The exercise presented ponders upon the probability of events A and B occurring, which is a classic statistical question.

For instance, understanding the probability of different outcomes allows statisticians to make predictions or to evaluate the strength of relationships within the data. Whether it's forecasting weather patterns or determining the effectiveness of a new drug, statistics use principles of probability theory to draw conclusions from data sets, which can be descriptive or inferential in nature.
Independent Events
Independent events are foundational to probability theory. Two events are considered independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other. In simpler terms, knowing whether one event has happened gives you no information about whether the other event will occur. This is crucial for calculating probabilities in stats.

For example, when flipping a fair coin multiple times, each flip is independent of the last—the previous results don't change the odds of flipping heads or tails the next time. In the exercise, the fact that the probability of A and B happening together (\(P(A \text{ and } B)\) = 0.12) equals the product of their individual probabilities suggests that events A and B do not affect each other's outcomes, making them independent.
Probability Theory
Probability theory is essentially the math behind uncertainty. It provides a quantifiable way to measure and express the likelihood of events. This includes everything from the roll of a die to more complex events in finance and science. The exercise involves two important probability concepts: conditional probability and the independence of events.

Conditional probability, denoted as P(A|B), is the likelihood of event A occurring given that B has already happened. Our calculations depend on understanding this relationship and utilizing the formula \( P(A | B) = P(A \text{ and } B) / P(B) \) appears directly from this principle. Moreover, probability theory gives us the tools to examine the relationships between events, like in our exercise, where we assess whether two events are independent by comparing the product of their individual probabilities to their joint probability.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Events \(\mathrm{R}\) and \(\mathrm{S}\) are defined on a sample space. If \(P(R)=0.2\) and \(P(S)=0.5,\) explain why each of the following statements is either true or false: a. If \(\mathrm{R}\) and \(\mathrm{S}\) are mutually exclusive, then \(P(\mathrm{R} \text { or } \mathrm{S})=0.10\) b. If \(R\) and \(S\) are independent, then \(P(R \text { or } S)=0.6\) c. If \(R\) and \(S\) are mutually exclusive, then \(P(R \text { and } S)=0.7\) d. If \(R\) and \(S\) are mutually exclusive, then \(P(\mathrm{R} \text { or } \mathrm{S})=0.6\)

Consider the set of integers \(1,2,3,4,\) and 5 a. One integer is selected at random. What is the probability that it is odd? b. Two integers are selected at random (one at a time with replacement so that each of the five is available for a second selection). Find the probability that neither is odd; exactly one of them is odd; both are odd.

Given \(P(\mathrm{A} \text { or } \mathrm{B})=1.0, P(\overline{\mathrm{A} \text { and } \mathrm{B}})=0.3,\) and \(P(\overline{\mathbf{B}})=0.4,\) find: a. \(P(B)\) b. \(\quad P(\mathrm{A})\) c. \(\quad P(\mathrm{A} | \mathrm{B})\)

A bowl contains 100 identical-looking, foil wrapped, chocolate egg-shaped candies of four kinds. The candies are either milk or dark chocolate with either a nut or a raisin filling. All but 40 of them are milk chocolate, all but 56 are nut, and all but 29 are nut-filled or milk chocolate. a. How many of each kind of chocolate are in the bowl? b. If one chocolate is selected at random, what is the probability that it is milk chocolate? c. If one chocolate is selected at random, what is the probability that it is dark or raisin? d. If one chocolate is selected at random, what is the probability that it is dark and raisin? e. If one chocolate is selected at random, what is the probability that it is neither dark nor raisin? f. If one chocolate is selected at random, what is the probability that it is not dark but is nut? g. If one chocolate is selected at random, what is the probability that it is milk or nut?

According to the American Pet Products Manufacturers Association \(2007-2008\) National Pet Owners Survey, about \(63 \%\) of all American dog owners-some 60 million-are owners of one dog. Based on this information, find the probability that an American dog owner owns more than one dog.

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