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Drei Schützen treffen die Scheibe mit den Wahrscheinlichkeiten \(1 / 2,2 / 3\) und \(3 / 4\). Sie schießen gleichzeitig und es werden zwei Treffer festgestellt. Welcher der drei Schutzen hat danebengeschossen? Berechnen Sie die Wahrscheinlichkeiten!

Short Answer

Expert verified
Shooter A missed the target.

Step by step solution

01

- Define the probabilities and events

Let’s denote the probabilities of the three shooters hitting the target as follows: P(A) = 1/2 for shooter A, P(B) = 2/3 for shooter B, and P(C) = 3/4 for shooter C. We also know that they shoot simultaneously and there are exactly two hits.
02

- Identify the combination of events

There are three scenarios where exactly two hits occur: Shooters A and B hit while C misses, Shooters A and C hit while B misses, and Shooters B and C hit while A misses. We need to calculate the probability for each scenario.
03

- Calculate individual probabilities

The probability that A and B hit while C misses is given by:
04

Probability A and B hit, C misses

P(A and B hit, C misses) = P(A) * P(B) * (1 - P(C)) = (1/2) * (2/3) * (1 - 3/4) = 1/2 * 2/3 * 1/4 = 1/12
05

Probability A and C hit, B misses

P(A and C hit, B misses) = P(A) * P(C) * (1 - P(B)) = (1/2) * (3/4) * (1 - 2/3) = 1/2 * 3/4 * 1/3 = 1/8
06

Probability B and C hit, A misses

P(B and C hit, A misses) = P(B) * P(C) * (1 - P(A)) = (2/3) * (3/4) * (1 - 1/2) = 2/3 * 3/4 * 1/2 = 1/4
07

- Determine the shooter who missed

The scenario with the highest probability is that Shooters B and C hit while Shooter A misses, because the probability of 1/4 is higher than the probabilities of 1/12 and 1/8.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
Understanding probability calculation is key to solving this problem. Probabilities quantify the likelihood of events happening. For instance, if Shooter A has a probability of 1/2 to hit the target, it means that out of every 2 shots, A is expected to hit 1. Similarly, for Shooter B with probability of 2/3, it means out of 3 shots, B will hit 2. And for Shooter C, hitting the target 3 out of 4 times suggests a probability of 3/4.

To determine who missed among the three shooters, we need to calculate the probabilities of various scenarios where exactly two shooters hit the target. We then compare these probabilities to find the most likely scenario. This approach ensures a logical, calculative solution to the problem.
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability helps us determine the likelihood of an event happening, given that another event has already occurred. In this exercise, we know there are exactly two hits, which sets a condition for our probability calculations. Hence, we calculate the probability of each shooter missing given that exactly two shooters have hit.

The key to solving this is to think about each combination of shooters - A, B, C - such that each combination leads to two hits and one miss. By applying conditional probability, we break down the problem into manageable parts and compute the likelihood for each specific scenario.
Combinatorial Analysis
Combinatorial analysis helps in evaluating all possible combinations of events. In this problem, we have three shooters and three possible scenarios of hits and misses:
  • A hits, B hits, C misses
  • A hits, C hits, B misses
  • B hits, C hits, A misses
We assign probabilities to each of these combinations based on the hit probabilities of the respective shooters and then calculate the overall probability for each scenario. For example, the probability of A and B hitting and C missing is calculated by multiplying their chances: P(A) x P(B) x (1 - P(C)). These calculations help identify the scenario with the highest probability, indicating the most likely outcome.
Event Outcomes
Event outcomes in probability determine which specific event actually happens. After calculating the probabilities for all possible scenarios where exactly two shooters hit, we compare these probabilities. In this particular problem, the outcomes are:
  • P(A and B hit, C misses) = 1/12
  • P(A and C hit, B misses) = 1/8
  • P(B and C hit, A misses) = 1/4
By comparing these probabilities, we find that the highest probability is 1/4 for the scenario where B and C hit while A misses. Thus, the most likely outcome is that Shooters B and C have hit the target, and Shooter A has missed.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Ein vollkommener Würfel wird \(\mathrm{n}\)-mal geworfen. M und \(\mathrm{m}\) seien die maximale bzw. die minimale Punktzahl, die man dabei erhält. Bestimmen Sie \(\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{m}=2, \mathrm{M}=5) !\) [Hinweis: Beginnen Sie mit \(\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{m} \geq 2 ; \mathrm{M} \leqslant 5) !]\)

Beweisen Sie, daß die Ereignisse \(A_{1}, \ldots, \mathrm{A}_{\mathrm{n}}\) genau dann unabhängig sind, wenn $$ \mathrm{P}\left(\tilde{\mathrm{A}}_{1} \cdots \widetilde{\mathrm{A}}_{\mathrm{n}}\right)=\mathrm{P}\left(\widetilde{\mathrm{A}}_{1}\right) \cdots \mathrm{P}\left(\tilde{\mathrm{A}}_{\mathrm{n}}\right) $$ wobei jedes \(\widetilde{A}_{j}\) gleich \(A_{j}\) oder gleich \(A_{j}^{c}\) sein kann. [Hinweis: Diese Gleichungen lassen sich durch Induktion nach \(n\) und auch nach \(k\), angewendet auf \(P\left(A_{1}^{c} \cdots A_{k}^{c} A_{k+1} \cdots\right.\) \(\cdots \mathrm{A}_{\mathrm{n}}\) ), aus der Unabhängigkeit folgern; die Umkehr ergibt sich leicht durch Induktion nach \(\mathrm{n} .]\)

Die beiden ausgewählten Punkte teilen \([0,1]\) in drei Strecken. Mit welcher Wahrscheinlichkeit läßt sich aus diesen Strecken ein Dreieck bilden ? [Hinweis: das ist genau dann der Fall, wenn die Summe der Längen von je zweien der Strecken gröBer ist als die Länge der dritten Strecke. Man nenne die Punkte \(\mathrm{X}\) und \(\mathrm{Y}\) und behandle zuerst den Fall \(\mathrm{X}<\mathrm{Y} .\)

Bei einem Flug von Urbana nach Paris kam mein Gepäck nicht mit mir an. Es war dreimal umgeladen worden und die Wahrscheinlichkeiten dafür, daß dies nicht zur rechten Zeit geschah, wurden in der Reihenfolge des Umladens mit \(4 / 10,2 / 10\) und \(1 / 10\) geschätzt. Mit welcher Wahrscheinlichkeit hat die erste Fluglinie geschlampt ?

Jemand unterzieht sich nacheinander vier Prüfungstests. Er besteht den ersten mit Wahrscheinlichkeit \(p\), jeden weiteren mit Wahrscheinlichkeit p oder \(p / 2\), je nachdem, ob er den vorigen bestanden hat oder nicht. Wenn er mindestens drei der Tests besteht, dann hat er die Prüfung erfolgreich abgelegt. Wie groß ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür?

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