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Unter den von einer Maschine hergestellten Schrauben befinden sich im Durchschnitt \(20 \%\) Ausschuß. Aus der Tagesproduktion dieser Maschine werden zufällig 10 Schrauben herausgegriffen. Wie groß ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür, daf von diesen Schrauben a) genau 2, b) mehr als 2 , c) mehr als 5 unbrauchbar sind?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) 0.30199, b) 0.3222, c) 0.00637

Step by step solution

01

Define variables

Identify the given information and variables. The probability of a defective screw is given as \( p = 0.2 \). The sample size is \( n = 10 \).
02

Calculate the probability of exactly 2 defective screws (part a)

Use the binomial probability formula: ewline ewline \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{n-k} \] ewline ewline Substitute \( n = 10 \), \( k = 2 \), and \( p = 0.2 \): ewline ewline \[ P(X = 2) = \binom{10}{2} (0.2)^2 (0.8)^8 \] ewline ewline Calculate the values: ewline \[ P(X = 2) = \frac{10!}{2!(10-2)!} (0.2)^2 (0.8)^8 \] ewline Calculation: ewline \[ P(X = 2) = 45 \times 0.04 \times 0.16777216 = 0.30199 \]
03

Calculate the probability of more than 2 defective screws (part b)

Use the binomial probability formula to find the cumulative probability for 0, 1, and 2 defective screws. ewline The probability for more than 2 is the complementary probability of 2 or fewer defective screws. ewline \[ P(X > 2) = 1 - P(X \text{ ≤ } 2) \] ewline \[ P(X > 2) = 1 - (P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)) \] ewline Calculate each term individually: ewline \[ P(X=0) = \binom{10}{0} (0.2)^0 (0.8)^{10} = 0.10737 \] ewline \[ P(X=1) = \binom{10}{1} (0.2)^1 (0.8)^9 = 0.26844 \] ewline We already have \( P(X=2) = 0.30199 \). ewline Sum these probabilities: ewline \[ P(X \text{ ≤ } 2) = 0.10737 + 0.26844 + 0.30199 = 0.6778 \] ewline Thus, ewline \[ P(X > 2) = 1 - 0.6778 = 0.3222 \]
04

Calculate the probability of more than 5 defective screws (part c)

Use the binomial probability formula to find the cumulative probability for 5 or fewer defective screws. ewline The probability for more than 5 is the complementary probability of 5 or fewer defective screws. ewline \[ P(X>5) = 1 - P(X \text{ ≤ } 5) \] ewline Calculate each probability from 0 to 5 and sum them: ewline \[ P(X≤5) = \binom{10}{0}(0.2)^0(0.8)^{10} + \binom{10}{1}(0.2)^1(0.8)^9 + \binom{10}{2}(0.2)^2(0.8)^8 + \] \[ \binom{10}{3}(0.2)^3(0.8)^7 + \binom{10}{4}(0.2)^4(0.8)^6 + \binom{10}{5}(0.2)^5(0.8)^5 \] Simplify these probabilities: ewline \[ = 0.10737 + 0.26844 + 0.30199 + 0.20133 + 0.08808 + 0.02642 = 0.99363 \] Now compute: ewline \[ P(X>5) = 1 - 0.99363 = 0.00637 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Defective Items
Defective items in a production process are items that don't meet the required quality standards. In the given problem, **defective screws** are screws that don't perform as needed. When dealing with probabilities of defects, we need to focus on the likelihood of picking a defective item from a batch. Here, the probability of any single screw being defective is given as **0.2**. This means if you picked one screw at random, there is a 20% chance it would be defective.

By determining the number of defective items in a production cycle, businesses can better manage quality and make informed decisions on improvement areas. In the exercise, we look at the likelihood of finding different quantities of defective screws when selecting **10 screws from the daily production**.
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution helps model situations where there are two possible outcomes, like defective or non-defective items. It's ideal for the scenario in the exercise where screws are either **good** or **defective**.

The binomial distribution formula, \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{n-k} \] calculates the probability of getting exactly **k defective items** out of **n trials**, where each trial has the probability **p** of being defective. Here, **n = 10** and **p = 0.2**. For example, to find the probability of exactly 2 defective screws (part a), we substitute the known values into the formula: \[ P(X = 2) = \binom{10}{2} (0.2)^2 (0.8)^8 \] This allows us to calculate the likelihood of specific numbers of defective items, helping in understanding and managing quality in production.
Cumulative Probability
Cumulative probability refers to the probability of getting up to a certain number of successes. In part (b) and part (c) of the exercise, we deal with cumulative probabilities. Instead of looking at the probability of exactly **k defective screws**, we find the chance of **more than 2** or **more than 5** defective screws.

For part (b), we need to calculate the probability of having more than 2 defective screws, which is found by subtracting the cumulative probability of **2 or fewer** defective screws from 1: \[ P(X > 2) = 1 - (P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)) \]

For part (c), we compute the probability of having more than 5 defective screws by finding the cumulative probability of **5 or fewer**: \[ P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X \text{ ≤ } 5) \] Cumulative probabilities are useful because they help us understand ranges of outcomes and are critical in quality control and risk management.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In einem Bernoulli-Experiment werde ein idealer Würfel 12 -mal geworfen. Man bestimme die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür, daß a) genau zweimal die 6 , b) mindestens einmal die 6 geworfen wird.

Drei einer ansteckenden Krankheit verdächtigen Personen \(\mathrm{A}, \mathrm{B}, \mathrm{C}\) wurde eine Blutprobe entnommen. Das Untersuchungsergebnis sollte vorläufig nicht bekannt gegeben werden. A erfuhr jedoch, daß sich mur bei einer Person der Verdacht bestatigte, und bat den Arzt, ihm im Vertrauen den Namen einer der Personen B oder C zu nennen, die gesund ist. Der Arzt lehnt die Auskunft mit der Begründung ab, daß damit die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür, daß A erkrankt ist, von \(\frac{1}{3}\) auf \(\frac{1}{2}\) ansteigen würde. A bestreitet dies. Man schlichte den Streit unter der Annahme, daB der Arzt, wenn A an der ansteckenden Krankheit leidet, mit gleicher Wahrscheinlich. keit B oder C nennen würde.

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