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Nonconstant Growth Metallica Bearings, Inc., is a young start-up company. No dividends will be paid on the stock over the next nine years, because the firm needs to plow back its earnings to fuel growth. The company will pay a \(\$ 9\) per share dividend in 10 years and will increase the dividend by 5.5 percent per year thereafter. If the required return on this stock is 13 percent, what is the current share price?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The current share price of Metallica Bearings, Inc. is approximately $35.59.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The Dividend Discount Model is used to evaluate the price of a stock by estimating the present value of its future dividends. The basic DDM formula is: \(P_0 = \frac{D_1}{(1 + r)^1} + \frac{D_2}{(1 + r)^2} + ... + \frac{D_n}{(1 + r)^n}\) Where: \(P_0\) = Current stock price \(D_1, D_2, ..., D_n\) = Dividends for year 1, 2, ..., n \(r\) = Required rate of return Since we know no dividends will be paid for the first 9 years, we can modify the formula considering that.
02

Find the dividends for years 10 and beyond

The company will pay a \(\$9\) dividend in year 10 and will increase the dividend by 5.5% every year after that. Using the constant growth dividend model, we can find the dividends for years 11 and beyond. \(D_{11} = D_{10} \times (1 + g)\) Where: \(D_{11}\) = Dividend for year 11 \(D_{10} = \$9\) = Dividend for year 10 \(g = 0.055\) = Dividend growth rate Calculating the dividend for year 11: \(D_{11} = 9 \times (1 + 0.055) = \$9.495\)
03

Find the Present Value of dividends from year 10 onwards

Now, let's find the Present Value of dividends from year 10 onwards using the constant growth DDM. The formula for this is: \(P_{10} = \frac{D_{11}}{r - g}\) Where: \(P_{10}\) = Present value of dividends from year 10 \(r = 0.13\) = Required rate of return \(g = 0.055\) = Dividend growth rate Calculating the present value for year 10: \(P_{10} = \frac{9.495}{0.13 - 0.055} = \$145.308\)
04

Find the current share price

Finally, we'll find the current share price considering the Present Value of dividends from year 10 onwards. For this, we'll derive the present value of \(P_{10}\) at year 0 using the following formula: \(P_0 = \frac{P_{10}}{(1 + r)^{10}}\) Where: \(P_0\) = current share price \(P_{10} = \$145.308\) = Present value of dividends from year 10 \(r = 0.13\) = Required rate of return Calculating the current share price: \(P_0 = \frac{145.308}{(1 + 0.13)^{10}} = \$35.59\) The current share price of Metallica Bearings, Inc. is approximately $35.59.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Nonconstant Growth
When dealing with young companies like Metallica Bearings, Inc., you often encounter nonconstant growth in their dividend patterns. Nonconstant growth essentially means that the company's dividend payments are not uniform over time. This could be due to various reasons, such as the need for a company to reinvest its earnings to grow the business instead of paying out dividends.

In Metallica Bearings's case, they will not pay any dividends for the first nine years. This is because they need to invest back into the company to promote growth. However, starting from the 10th year, they will begin paying dividends, which will grow at a constant rate thereafter. It's crucial to foresee and understand these growth phases when calculating the stock's value. So, the trick is to evaluate the dividends that will start at a future date and grow steadily after that initial phase.
Present Value
The concept of present value is central to the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), which is used to determine the current worth of a stock based on its future dividend payments. Present value lets us calculate what those future dividends are worth in today's terms by discounting future cash flows at a specific required rate of return.

For Metallica Bearings, since dividends start only in year 10, we must find the present value of dividends from year 10 onwards. This involves calculating the future dividend values and then discounting them back to the present time using the formula:
  • \(P_0 = \frac{P_{10}}{(1 + r)^{10}}\).
Here, \(P_{10}\) is the calculated present value of the dividends beyond year 10, and \(r\) is the required rate of return. The present value tells us what a future stream of dividends is worth right now, highlighting the time value of money, which is crucial in investment decisions.
Expected Return
The expected return is what investors anticipate earning from an investment in a stock, reflecting both the potential gain from dividends and any increase in the stock's value. In our example, the expected return on the stock is based partly on the anticipated dividends beginning in year 10.

The required rate of return, given as 13% in Metallica Bearings's scenario, aligns with the expected return investors seek. This rate accounts for the risk associated with investing in the company, recognizing that the company is young and exhibits variable growth patterns.

The expected return component is crucial because it helps investors decide if they are being adequately compensated for the level of risk they are taking. It influences how much they are willing to pay for the stock now, factoring in all potential future earnings.
Dividend Growth Rate
Dividend growth rate signifies the expected annual rate at which dividends paid by a company will rise. For Metallica Bearings, the growth rate is indicated as 5.5% per annum starting in year 10. This suggests that every year, the dividend paid will increase by 5.5%.

This growth rate is significant because it's a key factor in determining the future value of dividends using the dividend growth model. Investors prefer to see a stable or increasing dividend growth rate as it implies that the company is not only performing well but also managing its finances in a way that benefits shareholders.

To calculate the dividend for any given year once the growth starts, use:
  • \(D_{11} = D_{10} \times (1 + g)\).
This formula allows quantifying future cash flows an investor can expect from their investment, which is vital for assessing the stock's value.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Dividend Growth Four years ago, Bling Diamond, Inc., paid a dividend of \(\$ 1.20\) per share. Bling paid a dividend of \(\$ 1.93\) per share yesterday. Dividends will grow over the next five years at the same rate they grew over the last four years. Thereafter, dividends will grow at 7 percent per year. What will Bling Diamond's cash dividend be in seven years?

Stock Values White Wedding Corporation will pay a \(\$ 3.05\) per share dividend next year. The company pledges to increase its dividend by 5.25 percent per year, indefinitely. If you require an 11 percent return on your investment, how much will you pay for the company's stock today?

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