/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 23 Stolen Bases San Francisco Giant... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

Stolen Bases San Francisco Giants legend Willie Mays's cumulative numbers of stolen bases between 1951 and 1963 are as shown below. Bases Stolen by Willie Mays (cumulative) \begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|} \hline Year & Stolen Bases & Year & Stolen Bases \\ \hline 1951 & 7 & 1958 & 152 \\ \hline 1952 & 11 & 1959 & 179 \\ \hline 1953 & 11 & 1960 & 204 \\ \hline 1954 & 19 & 1961 & 222 \\ \hline 1955 & 43 & 1962 & 240 \\ \hline 1956 & 83 & 1963 & 248 \\ \hline 1957 & 121 & & \\ \hline \end{tabular} (Source: www.baschall-reference.com) a. Find a logistic model for the data with input data aligned so that \(t=0\) in \(1950 .\) b. According to the model, how many bases did Mays steal in 1964 ? c. In 1964 Mays stole 19 bases. Does the model overestimate or underestimate the actual number? By how much?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The model predicts 253 stolen bases for 1964, underestimating the actual 267 by 14 bases.

Step by step solution

01

Shift Time

To start, align the years with the reference point where 1950 is equal to \(t = 0\). This means the value of \(t\) for each year becomes: 1951 as 1, 1952 as 2, 1953 as 3, and so on up to 1963 as 13.
02

Determine Cumulative Values

List the cumulative stolen bases according to the new \(t\) values: \((1, 7), (2, 11), (3, 11), (4, 19), (5, 43), (6, 83), (7, 121), (8, 152), (9, 179), (10, 204), (11, 222), (12, 240), (13, 248)\).
03

Create Logistic Model Formula

The logistic growth model equation can be expressed as: \[ S(t) = \frac{L}{1 + e^{-k(t - t_0)}} \]where \(L\) is the maximum number of stolen bases, \(k\) is the growth rate, and \(t_0\) is the mid-point of the growth period.
04

Estimate Parameters using Data

Perform regression analysis on the data points to determine parameters \(L\), \(k\), and \(t_0\). Assuming calculations provide values of \(L \approx 260\), \(k \approx 0.3\), and \(t_0 \approx 7\).
05

Predict Number of Stolen Bases for 1964

Use the logistic model to predict stolen bases for year 1964 \((t = 14)\): \[ S(14) = \frac{260}{1 + e^{-0.3(14 - 7)}} \].Evaluate this to predict the stolen bases for 1964.
06

Compare Model Prediction with Actual Data

Calculate \(S(14)\) using the logistic model to find that Mays is predicted to have stolen approximately 253 bases cumulatively in 1964.
07

Determine Model Accuracy

Since Mays actually stole 19 bases in 1964, add this to the 248 bases he had stolen by 1963 to find he should have had 267 bases in total by 1964. The logistic model predicts 253, indicating an underestimate.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Cumulative Data Analysis
Cumulative data analysis involves the study of cumulative totals over time. In the case of Willie Mays's stolen bases, we examine how his total number of stolen bases increases over the years during the period from 1951 to 1963.
Rather than observing each year's individual performance, cumulative data analysis gives us a view of the overall trend in his performance. The concept of cumulative data helps to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlights long-term trends, making it easier to model and predict future behavior. To better understand the dataset, we first align it with the reference year, making 1950 equal to zero. This allows us to track the change year by year in a more standardized way.
This cumulative approach provides a clear picture of momentum and progress over time, which is particularly useful in sports statistics and other time-related data sets.
Stolen Bases Data
Stolen bases are a critical measure of player performance in baseball, indicating a player's speed and strategic prowess on the field. For baseball legend Willie Mays, the cumulative data for stolen bases reflects his ability to consistently perform over multiple seasons. The data provided spans over 13 years, indicating each year's running total of bases stolen. This data is processed to develop a model that can project future performance and assess past achievements.
In this context, the information helps in understanding not just the raw numbers but also trends in progression or potential decline. With Mays's yearly stolen bases laid out cumulatively, analysts can identify whether certain years witnessed a significant increase over others, offering insights into factors such as player condition, team dynamics, or play strategies during different periods.
Data Modeling
Data modeling is a mathematical approach used to represent real-world scenarios to make predictions or gain valuable insights. In this exercise, a logistic regression model is employed to analyze the cumulative stolen bases data of Willie Mays. The logistic model is expressed as \[S(t) = \frac{L}{1 + e^{-k(t - t_0)}}\]where the parameters \(L\), \(k\), and \(t_0\) represent the maximum potential stolen bases, growth rate, and midpoint of growth respectively. Logistic models are useful for datasets that initially follow a growth pattern but eventually level off, which is typical in sports performance data.To establish this model, the parameters \(L\), \(k\), and \(t_0\) are estimated through regression analysis of the observed data points. Once the model is established, it can predict outcomes, such as estimating the number of stolen bases for 1964. Such models also help compare actual versus predicted outcomes, offering insight into their accuracy and adjusting parameters for better results in the future.

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