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Cellular Telephones The following table gives the number of people with cellular telephone service for recent years and can be found in Glassman. \({ }^{59}\) Number is in millions. $$ \begin{array}{|l|ccccc|} \hline \text { Year } & 1984 & 1985 & 1986 & 1987 & 1988 \\ \hline \text { Number } & 0.2 & 0.5 & 0.8 & 1.4 & 2.0 \\ \hline \text { Year } & 1989 & 1990 & 1991 & 1992 & 1993 \\ \hline \text { Number } & 3.8 & 5.7 & 8 & 11 & 13.8 \\ \hline \end{array} $$a. On the basis of this data, find the best-fitting exponential function using exponential regression. Let \(x=0\) correspond to 1984 . Graph. Use this model to estimate the numbers in 1997 . b. Using the model in part (a), estimate when the number of people with cellular telephone service will reach 50 million

Short Answer

Expert verified
The exponential model estimates around 30 million in 1997, reaching 50 million after the year 2000.

Step by step solution

01

Assign Mathematical Values

Assign each year a corresponding value for variable \(x\). Let \(x=0\) correspond to 1984, then it increments by 1 each year. This means 1984 corresponds to \(x=0\), 1985 to \(x=1\), up through 1993 which corresponds to \(x=9\).
02

Prepare Data for Regression

The given data translates to pairs \((x, y)\) where \(y\) is the number of people with cellular service. So, the data points are \((0, 0.2), (1, 0.5), (2, 0.8), (3, 1.4), (4, 2.0), (5, 3.8), (6, 5.7), (7, 8.0), (8, 11.0), (9, 13.8)\).
03

Perform Exponential Regression

Using an exponential regression tool or calculator, fit an exponential model equation of the form \(y = ab^x\) to the data points. Obtain the values for \(a\) and \(b\) which best fit the data.
04

Write the Equation

Based on regression analysis, you will determine specific values for \(a\) and \(b\). A typical output might be \(y = 0.17 \cdot 1.54^x\) (This is a hypothetical result, your calculator/software might give different specific values).
05

Estimate the 1997 Value

Use the exponential model to find the number of people in 1997. Since 1997 corresponds to \(x=13\), substitute \(x=13\) into your regression equation to find \(y\).
06

Solve for 1997 Estimate

Substitute \(x=13\) into the equation, e.g., \(y = 0.17 \cdot 1.54^{13}\), and compute \(y\), which Estimate the number of people in millions for 1997.
07

Estimate When Reaching 50 Million

To estimate when the number will reach 50 million, set \(y=50\) in your equation and solve for \(x\).
08

Solve for \(x\) in Reaching 50 Million

Rearrange your equation for exponential growth, taking the logarithm if necessary to isolate \(x\). For example, solve \(50 = 0.17 \cdot 1.54^x\) for \(x\). Calculate this value to determine the year when the number hits 50 million.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Data Analysis
Data analysis plays a crucial role in understanding trends and making predictions based on a given dataset. In the context of the exercise, we start by examining data that represents the number of people subscribing to cellular telephone services over a span of a decade.

Each year given in the dataset is paired with the corresponding number of subscribers in millions. For example, in 1984, there were 0.2 million subscribers, while 1989 saw this number rise to 3.8 million.

By organizing data into such pairs, we can transform our understanding into a clearer, visual format. This format lays the groundwork for further processing, analysis, and model fitting.

The core aim of data analysis here is to identify patterns that can help in predicting future behavior, especially in understanding growth trends. This involves understanding both the quantitative aspect (like numbers and figures) and the qualitative implications (like the rate of growth).
Mathematical Modeling
Mathematical modeling is the process of creating a mathematical representation of a real-world scenario. In this exercise, we develop a model to represent the growth in cellular telephone service subscriptions over several years.

The primary method used here is exponential regression, which is well-suited for modeling growth that accelerates over time, resembling a curve. The general form of an exponential function is \( y = ab^x \), where \( a \) represents the starting value and \( b \) the growth factor.

By applying exponential regression, a mathematical model is fitted to the given data points. This model helps interpret underlying trends and potentially predict future values.

Creating the model involves calculating values for \( a \) and \( b \) that best represent the data trend. This step is typically performed with the aid of regression tools or calculators, and the result is an exponential equation (e.g., \( y = 0.17 \cdot 1.54^x \) as a hypothetical outcome), which can then be used to make predictions.
Growth Prediction
Growth prediction is a critical application of both data analysis and mathematical modeling, aimed at forecasting future trends. Using the exponential model determined in previous steps, we can predict future cellular service subscription numbers.

One application is to estimate the number of subscribers in a future year, such as 1997. By substituting the year as \( x = 13 \) into the exponential equation, we calculate \( y \), representing the predicted subscriber count in millions for that year. This process involves computing \( y = 0.17 \cdot 1.54^{13} \), for 1997, providing an estimate based on the growth trend.

A more complex application involves determining when a certain milestone, like 50 million subscribers, will be reached. This requires solving the equation \( 50 = 0.17 \cdot 1.54^x \) for \( x \), often utilizing logarithmic transformations to isolate \( x \).

The calculated \( x \) value will indicate the year in which the given milestone is expected, based on the projected exponential growth model. This illustrates how exponential regression aids in making informed predictions about future subscriber growth.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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