Chapter 1: Problem 52
The human population of the world was about 6 billion in the year 2000 and increasing at the rate of \(1.3 \%\) a year. \(^{79}\) Assume that this population will continue to grow at this rate and determine the year in which the population of the world will reach 7 billion.
Short Answer
Expert verified
The population will reach 7 billion in the year 2013.
Step by step solution
01
Understand the Growth Formula
The population growth can be modeled using the exponential growth formula: \( P = P_0 \times (1 + r)^t \), where \( P \) is the future population, \( P_0 \) is the initial population, \( r \) is the growth rate, and \( t \) is the time in years. Here, the initial population \( P_0 = 6 \text{ billion} \) and the growth rate \( r = 1.3/100 = 0.013 \).
02
Set Up the Population Equation
We need to determine when the population will reach 7 billion. So, we set \( P = 7 \) billion and plug this into the growth formula to get: \( 7 = 6 \times (1.013)^t \).
03
Isolate the Exponential Term
To solve for \( t \), first divide both sides of the equation by 6: \( \frac{7}{6} = (1.013)^t \).
04
Solve for t Using Logarithms
Take the logarithm of both sides to solve for \( t \): \( \log(\frac{7}{6}) = \log((1.013)^t) \). Using the rule \( \log(a^b) = b \cdot \log(a) \), this becomes: \( \log(\frac{7}{6}) = t \cdot \log(1.013) \).
05
Perform the Calculation
First, calculate the left side: \( \log(\frac{7}{6}) \approx 0.066946 \). Now solve for \( t \): \( t = \frac{\log(\frac{7}{6})}{\log(1.013)} \). Calculating this gives \( t \approx 12.995 \).
06
Determine the Exact Year
Since the initial year is 2000, and \( t \approx 13 \), the estimated year when the population reaches 7 billion is around 2000 + 13 = 2013.
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Population Growth Model
Understanding the population growth model is a cornerstone of studying how populations increase over time. This model is particularly useful in assessing how many individuals exist in a defined environment. In the context of exponential growth, an essential component of this model is the growth rate, which dictates how rapidly the population expands.
- The formula used for an exponential population growth model is: \[ P = P_0 \times (1 + r)^t \]
- Here, \( P_0 \) (the initial population) and \( r \) (the annual growth rate as a decimal) play crucial roles.
- In our scenario, the initial population \( P_0 \) is 6 billion, and the growth rate \( r \) is 1.3%, or 0.013 in decimal form.
Logarithmic Equations
Logarithmic equations are a powerful tool when solving for variables in exponential equations, particularly when unknowns are exponents. This method allows us to isolate and solve for \( t \), the time, in our equation to find out how many years it will take to reach a certain population with a given growth rate.
- We use the properties of logarithms, such as \( \log(a^b) = b \cdot \log(a) \), to transform the equation \( \frac{7}{6} = (1.013)^t \).
- Applying a logarithm to each side gives us: \[ \log\left( \frac{7}{6} \right) = t \cdot \log(1.013) \]
- This approach simplifies solving for \( t \), making use of the known logarithmic values.
Exponential Functions
Exponential functions, characterized by growth or decay processes, are mathematical representations where the rate of change of a quantity is proportional to the current quantity. This concept is particularly relevant in populations, where each year's growth is a fixed percentage of the previous year's size.
- An exponential function can be recognized by its form: \( f(x) = a \cdot b^x \), where \( a \) is a constant and \( b \) is the base of the exponential.
- In population studies, this function shows rapid growth after a certain point, often referred to as a "J-curve."
- The curve's steepness is dictated by \( b \), which in our model is \( 1 + r \). Here, \( 1.013 \) indicates a 1.3% annual increase.