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For the years \(2000-2011\), the number \(P\) of gray wolves in Wisconsin can be modeled by the population function $$P=P(t)=248 e^{0.105(t-2000)} \quad(2000 \leq t \leq 2011)$$ Based upon this model, what was the average gray wolf population in Wisconsin over the period \(2000-2011 ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The average gray wolf population in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2011 was approximately 449.53.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Given Model Function

The population function given is \( P(t) = 248 e^{0.105(t-2000)} \). This function models the population \( P \) of gray wolves in terms of \( t \), where \( t \) is the year.
02

Determine the Time Interval for Integration

We are asked to find the average population from the year 2000 to 2011, so \( t \) will range from 2000 to 2011.
03

Set Up the Integral for Average Population

The average value of a function \( f(x) \) over the interval \( [a, b] \) is given by \( \frac{1}{b-a} \int_{a}^{b} f(x) \, dx \). Here, \( f(t) \) is \( P(t) = 248 e^{0.105(t-2000)} \), and \( [a, b] = [2000, 2011] \).
04

Evaluate the Definite Integral

The integral \( \int_{2000}^{2011} 248 e^{0.105(t-2000)} \, dt \) is solved by substituting \( u = t - 2000 \), giving \( \int_{0}^{11} 248 e^{0.105u} \, du \). The integral becomes \( 248 \cdot \frac{e^{0.105u}}{0.105} \bigg|_{0}^{11} = \frac{248}{0.105} ( e^{0.105 \times 11} - e^{0}) \).
05

Calculate the Integral Result

Substitute the values into the integral expression: \[ \frac{248}{0.105} ( e^{1.155} - 1) \]. Calculate \( e^{1.155} \), then multiply and divide to get the result.
06

Calculate the Average Population

Using the formula for average, \( \text{average} = \frac{1}{b-a} \int_{a}^{b} f(x) \, dx \), substitute the calculated integral result and interval length to find the average population over the period.
07

Perform Final Calculations

Compute \[ e^{1.155} \approx 3.173 \, (using \, calculator), \] leading to the integral value: \[ \frac{248}{0.105} \cdot (3.173 - 1) \approx 4944.867. \] The interval length is 11 years, so the average is \( \frac{4944.867}{11} \approx 449.53 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Exponential Growth
Exponential growth describes how a quantity increases by a constant percentage over equal time periods. In the given exercise, this concept helps us understand the wolf population growth in Wisconsin. The population increases exponentially because each year's growth builds upon the previous year's population. Mathematically, an exponential function takes the form: \( P(t) = P_0 e^{kt} \) Here, \( P_0 \) is the initial quantity, \( e \) is the base of the natural logarithm, and \( k \) is the growth rate. - **Parameter Definitions:** In our model, \( P_0 = 248 \), showing the initial population of gray wolves. The constant \( k = 0.105 \) is the annual growth rate, indicating a significant increase each year.- **Influences of \( e \):** The natural base \( e \approx 2.718 \) is crucial, as it represents the idea of continuous growth. Instead of boosting the figures periodically, it lets us mathematically capture continuous increases. - **Impact on Population:** Even small changes in the growth rate \( k \) can lead to substantial differences in the total population, showcasing the power of exponential functions.Understanding exponential growth helps students appreciate how populations, investments, or any phenomenon subject to consistent compounding changes over time.
Population Modeling
Population modeling uses mathematical functions to represent how populations change over time, providing insights into trends and predictions. This can include human populations, animal species, or even cells.In the exercise, the population modeling of gray wolves uses the function:\( P(t) = 248 e^{0.105(t-2000)} \) The model considers various crucial elements:- **Initial Conditions:** Starting with 248 wolves in the year 2000, as verified by observations and historical data.- **Growth Rate:** The function incorporates a consistent annual growth rate of 10.5%. This could be influenced by factors such as availability of food, habitat conditions, and changes in climate.- **Time Parameter:** The variable \( t \) represents the time in years since 2000. This is important for predicting population sizes for specific future years.By employing such models: - **Predictive Power:** Analysts can estimate future population sizes, helping policymakers make informed decisions. - **Simplicity and Accuracy:** A well-chosen mathematical model bridges simplicity with real-world accuracy.Population modeling thus becomes a vital tool in ecology, conservation, and urban planning, aiding in the strategic planning for sustainable environments.
Definite Integral
The definite integral is a fundamental concept in calculus used to compute the accumulation of quantities. In the context of the exercise, it helps determine the average population over a specified time period.The integral, noted \( \int \), systematically sums up tiny changes in a function over an interval, providing a total or average value. For population modeling, this is particularly useful: - **Purpose in Exercise:** We calculate the integral of \( P(t) = 248 e^{0.105(t-2000)} \) over the interval from 2000 to 2011. This captures the total wolf population across these years. - **Formula for Average:** The average value of the function over the interval \([a, b]\) is given by:\[\frac{1}{b-a} \int_{a}^{b} f(x) \, dx\] - **Substitution Technique:** Here, we rearrange the integral using a substitution like \( u = t - 2000 \), which simplifies the calculation process.Key steps involve:- **Evaluating Boundary Terms:** Calculate the values of \( e^{...} \) at the boundaries, ensuring all terms are accounted for in the integral's evaluation.- **Conversion:** Convert continuous changes into average metrics suitable for practical use, like computing the average population over years.Understanding this concept allows students to appreciate how continuous data points translate into meaningful results, making indefinite quantities manageable and applicable.

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