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In a certain cell population, cells divide every 10 days, and the age of a cell selected at random is a random variable \(X\) with the density function \(f(x)=2 k e^{-k x}, 0 \leq x \leq 10, k=(\ln 2) / 10.\) Find the probability that a cell is at most 5 days old.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that a cell is at most 5 days old is approximately 0.585.

Step by step solution

01

- Identify the Probability to be Found

To find the probability that a cell is at most 5 days old, the calculation requires integrating the probability density function (PDF) from 0 to 5.
02

- Define the PDF and Parameter

The PDF given is \[ f(x) = 2k e^{-kx}, \, 0 \leq x \leq 10, \] with \( k = \frac{\ln 2}{10} \).
03

- Set Up the Integral

To find the probability that a cell is at most 5 days old, set up the integral of the PDF from 0 to 5: \[ P(X \leq 5) = \int_{0}^{5} 2k e^{-kx} \, dx. \]
04

- Substitute the Value of k

Substitute \( k = \frac{\ln 2}{10} \) into the integral: \[ P(X \leq 5) = \int_{0}^{5} 2 \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) e^{- \left(\frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) x} \, dx. \]
05

- Integrate the Expression

Perform the integration: \[ P(X \leq 5) = 2 \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) \int_{0}^{5} e^{- \left(\frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) x} \, dx. \] The integral of the exponential function is: \[ \int e^{-ax} \, dx = -\frac{1}{a} e^{-ax}, \] so the result will be: \[ P(X \leq 5) = 2 \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) \left[ - \frac{10}{\ln 2} e^{- \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) x} \right]_{0}^{5}. \]
06

- Evaluate the Integral

Evaluate the expression at the upper and lower limits: \[ P(X \leq 5) = 2 \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) \left[ - \frac{10}{\ln 2} \left( e^{- \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) \cdot 5} - e^{- \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) \cdot 0} \right) \right], \] simplifying, we get: \[ P(X \leq 5) = 2 \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) \left[ - \frac{10}{\ln 2} \left(e^{- \left( \frac{\ln 2}{2} \right)} - 1 \right) \right]. \]
07

- Simplify

Simplify the expression: \[ P(X \leq 5) = 2 \cdot \left( - \left( \frac{e^{- (\ln 2) / 2} - 1}{\ln 2} \right) \right). \] \(e^{- (\ln 2) / 2} = (e^{\ln 2})^{-1/2} = 2^{-1/2} = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2}}\), so the expression becomes: \[ P(X \leq 5) = 2 \cdot \left( \frac{1 - \frac{1}{\sqrt{2}}}{\ln 2} \right). \]
08

- Final Simplification

Convert to final form: \[ P(X \leq 5) = 2 \cdot \left( \frac{\sqrt{2} - 1}{\ln 2} \right). \] Numerically, this evaluates to approximately 0.58496.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Exponential Distribution
The exponential distribution is a continuous probability distribution often used to model the time between events in a Poisson process. This particular problem involves the age of a cell, which follows an exponential distribution due to its constant rate of division every 10 days.

For an exponential distribution, the probability density function (PDF) is given by:
\[ f(x) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x}, \ x \geq 0 \]
where \( \lambda \) is the rate parameter. In our case, the PDF is slightly modified to:
\[ f(x) = 2k e^{-kx}, 0 \leq x \leq 10 \]
with \( k = \frac{\ln 2}{10} \). The base of the PDF ensures that the total probability for the range [0, 10] equals 1.

Understanding how the exponential distribution works helps in solving problems involving the times between events. It is characterized by a lack of memory property, meaning the probability of an event occurring in the next interval is independent of how much time has already elapsed.
Integration
Integration is a fundamental concept in calculus that is used to calculate areas under curves, among other things. In the context of probability, integration helps us determine the probability of a continuous random variable falling within a certain range.

In this exercise, we are asked to find the probability that a cell is at most 5 days old. This involves integrating the given PDF from 0 to 5:
\[ P(X \leq 5) = \int_{0}^{5} 2k e^{-kx} \, dx \]

To solve this, we substitute \( k = \frac{\ln 2}{10} \) into the integral:
\[ P(X \leq 5) = 2 \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) \int_{0}^{5} e^{- \left(\frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) x} \, dx \]
Recognize that this is an integral of an exponential function, which has a standard solution:
\[ \int e^{-ax} \, dx = -\frac{1}{a} e^{-ax} \]
Applying this, we integrate, substitute the limits, and simplify to find the desired probability.
Probability Calculations
Probability calculations involve finding the likelihood that a random variable falls within a specific range. Here, we want to calculate the probability that the cell's age is at most 5 days.

Using the integral we set up earlier, we find:
\[ P(X \leq 5) = 2 \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) \left[ - \frac{10}{\ln 2} \left( e^{- \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) 5} - e^{- \left( \frac{\ln 2}{10} \right) 0} \right) \right] \]
Evaluating this at the bounds and simplifying, we get:
\[ P(X \leq 5) = 2 \left( \frac{\sqrt{2} - 1}{\ln 2} \right) \]
Numerically, this is approximately 0.58496.

This calculation shows that there is about a 58.5% chance that a randomly selected cell in this population is at most 5 days old. Understanding how to perform these calculations is crucial for solving many probability-related problems.

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