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During a certain part of the day, the time between arrivals of automobiles at the tollgate on a turnpike is an exponential random variable with expected value 20 seconds. Find the probability that the time between successive arrivals is greater than 10 seconds and less than 30 seconds.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that the time between arrivals is between 10 and 30 seconds is 0.3834.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the parameter of the exponential distribution

The time between arrivals is described by an exponential distribution with an expected value of 20 seconds. The mean (expected value, \(E[X]\)) of an exponential distribution is \(\frac{1}{\lambda}\), where \(\lambda\) is the rate parameter. Therefore, \(\lambda = \frac{1}{20} = 0.05\).
02

Define the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the exponential distribution

For an exponential distribution, the CDF is given by \(F(t) = 1 - e^{-\lambda t}\).
03

Calculate the probability for less than 30 seconds

Using the CDF, \(P(X < 30)\) can be calculated as \(F(30) = 1 - e^{-0.05 \cdot 30} = 1 - e^{-1.5} \approx 0.7769\).
04

Calculate the probability for less than 10 seconds

Similarly, calculate \(P(X < 10)\) as \(F(10) = 1 - e^{-0.05 \cdot 10} = 1 - e^{-0.5} \approx 0.3935\).
05

Calculate the probability between 10 and 30 seconds

The probability that the time between successive arrivals is between 10 and 30 seconds is \(P(10 < X < 30) = F(30) - F(10)\). Using the values from Steps 3 and 4, \(P(10 < X < 30) = 0.7769 - 0.3935 = 0.3834\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Probability in Exponential Distribution
Probability is a fundamental concept in statistics and denotes the likelihood of an event occurring. In the context of exponential distribution, probability helps us determine the likelihood of specific time intervals between events. For our tollgate example, the probability that the time between successive arrivals is between 10 and 30 seconds is calculated using the exponential distribution function. This involves subtracting the cumulative probabilities for upper and lower bounds (30 and 10 seconds, respectively). This gives us
\(P(10 < X < 30) = F(30) - F(10) \) where \((X)\) is the time between arrivals.
Exploring the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
To understand the exponential distribution, we must be familiar with its cumulative distribution function (CDF). The CDF represents the probability that a random variable takes on a value less than or equal to a certain number. For an exponential random variable with rate parameter \((\lambda)\), the CDF is given by\(F(t) = 1 - e^{-\lambda t}\). This CDF helps in calculating the probabilities for different ranges. For instance, the probability that the time between arrivals is less than 30 seconds is computed as \( F(30) = 1 - e^{-0.05 \) \( 30}\) which indicates how we find cumulative probabilities effectively.
By comparing cumulative probabilities at different time points, we can find the probability of the time interval lying between two given values.
The Role of the Rate Parameter (\lambda)
The rate parameter \(\lambda\) is crucial in exponential distribution. It signifies the rate at which events occur. In our context, it is the rate at which cars arrive at the tollgate. \(\lambda\) is the reciprocal of the mean (expected value) of the distribution. For example, if the expected arrival time is 20 seconds, \(\lambda\) would be \(1/20 = 0.05\). This means, on average, a car arrives every 20 seconds.
Understanding \(\lambda\) is essential as it shapes the entire distribution curriculum and it helps in calculating both the Probability Density Function (PDF) and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). By knowing \(\lambda\), we can find the probability of any time-related event modelled by the exponential distribution.

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