/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 62 Manufacturing. In an automotive ... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Manufacturing. In an automotive body-welding line, delays encountered during the process can be modeled by various probability distributions. (Source: R. R. Inman, "Empirical Evaluation of Exponential and Independence Assumptions in Queueing Models of Manufacturing Systems," Production and Operations Management, Vol. \(8,409-432\) (1999).) The processing time for the automatic piercing station has a normal distribution with mean 36.2 sec and standard deviation \(2.108 \mathrm{sec} .\) Find the probability that the next operation of the piercing station will take between 35 and 40 sec.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is approximately 67.98%.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to find the probability that a normally distributed random variable, representing the processing time, falls between two values: 35 and 40 seconds. The random variable has a mean of 36.2 seconds and a standard deviation of 2.108 seconds.
02

Convert to Standard Normal Distribution

The processing time is normally distributed, so we will convert our values to the standard normal distribution (Z-distribution) using the Z-score formula: \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]where \(X\) is a value from the normal distribution, \(\mu\) is the mean, and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation.
03

Calculate Z-scores for 35 and 40 seconds

For 35 seconds: \[ Z_{35} = \frac{35 - 36.2}{2.108} = -0.57 \]For 40 seconds: \[ Z_{40} = \frac{40 - 36.2}{2.108} = 1.80 \]
04

Find Probabilities from Z-table

Using a standard normal distribution table, find the probability for each Z-score:- For \( Z = -0.57 \), Probability \(P(Z < -0.57) \approx 0.2843\)- For \( Z = 1.80 \), Probability \(P(Z < 1.80) \approx 0.9641\)
05

Calculate the Probability Between Two Z-scores

To find the probability that the random variable falls between 35 and 40 seconds, calculate the difference between the two probabilities found:\[ P(35 < X < 40) = P(Z < 1.80) - P(Z < -0.57) \]\[ = 0.9641 - 0.2843 \]\[ = 0.6798 \]
06

Conclusion

The probability that the next operation of the piercing station will take between 35 and 40 seconds is approximately 0.6798, or 67.98%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability
Probability is the fundamental concept of measuring how likely an event is to occur. In the example of a manufacturing process, probability helps us understand the likelihood that a certain event—in this case, the operation time of an automatic piercing station—falls within a given range of seconds.
  • Probability values range from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty.
  • A probability of 0.6798, for instance, means there’s a 67.98% chance that the event will occur within the specified time range.
Understanding probability enables us to make informed predictions based on data from within defined parameters.
In practical applications, probabilities can be used to make decisions or assess risk. By understanding the likelihood of different outcomes, manufacturers can better plan for potential delays or ensure efficiency in the queue of operations.
Z-score
A Z-score provides a way to understand individual data points' relation to the mean of a given set of data. In the context of the normal distribution, the Z-score is crucial as it allows for the conversion of individual data points, such as operating times for machinery, to a standard form that's easy to analyze.
  • The formula for Z-score is given by: \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \] where:
    • \(X\) is the data point
    • \(\mu\) is the mean
    • \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation
For example, a Z-score of \(-0.57\) for 35 seconds means that the processing time is \(0.57\) standard deviations below the mean. Meanwhile, a Z-score of \(1.80\) for 40 seconds indicates it is \(1.80\) standard deviations above the mean. Using Z-scores, we simplify and standardize comparisons across different data sets or find probabilities using the standard normal distribution table, as seen in the original problem's step-by-step solution.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a critical statistical measure that reflects the dispersion or variation within a set of data points. It essentially tells us how much individual measurements deviate from the mean.
  • A small standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to cluster closely around the mean.
  • A large standard deviation suggests that the data points are spread over a larger range of values.
In scenarios where time management and efficiency are vital, such as the operation times of mechanical stations in manufacturing lines, understanding the standard deviation helps predict variations around the average processing time. For instance, in the described exercise, the standard deviation of \(2.108 \) seconds indicates the expected variability from the 36.2-second mean time. Rigorous understanding of standard deviation helps control processes and plan accurately, ultimately leading to more strategic operational decisions.

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