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Acceptance sampling is a statistical method used to monitor the quality of purchased parts and components. To ensure the quality of incoming parts, a purchaser or manufacturer normally samples 20 parts and allows one defect. a. What is the likelihood of accepting a lot that is \(1 \%\) defective? b. If the quality of the incoming lot was actually \(2 \%,\) what is the likelihood of accepting it? c. If the quality of the incoming lot was actually \(5 \%,\) what is the likelihood of accepting it?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Likelihoods: a) 98.32%, b) 93.96%, c) 73.59%

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to find the probability of accepting a batch of parts based on defect rates. The manufacturer samples 20 parts and allows 1 defect. This is a binomial probability problem where we need to calculate the probability of getting 0 or 1 defect out of 20 parts.
02

Formulate the Binomial Probability

The probability of exactly \(k\) successes (defects here) in \(n\) trials (20 parts) with a probability \(p\) of success (defect rate) in each trial is given by the formula: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where \( \binom{n}{k} \) is the binomial coefficient.
03

Calculate Likelihood for 1% Defective

Substitute \(n = 20\), \(k = 0\) and \( k = 1\), and \(p = 0.01\) in the formula. Calculate the probability of getting 0 defects and then 1 defect. Add these probabilities together: \( P(X = 0) = \binom{20}{0} (0.01)^0 (0.99)^{20} \), \( P(X = 1) = \binom{20}{1} (0.01)^1 (0.99)^{19} \). The likelihood is the sum of these probabilities.
04

Calculate Likelihood for 2% Defective

Substitute \(p = 0.02\) into the same formulae as above:\( P(X = 0) = \binom{20}{0} (0.02)^0 (0.98)^{20} \),\( P(X = 1) = \binom{20}{1} (0.02)^1 (0.98)^{19} \).The likelihood is the sum of these probabilities.
05

Calculate Likelihood for 5% Defective

Substitute \(p = 0.05\) into the same formulae:\( P(X = 0) = \binom{20}{0} (0.05)^0 (0.95)^{20} \),\( P(X = 1) = \binom{20}{1} (0.05)^1 (0.95)^{19} \).The likelihood is the sum of these probabilities.
06

Perform Calculations

For \(1\%\) defective: \( P(X = 0) = (0.99)^{20} \approx 0.8179\) and \( P(X = 1) = 20(0.01)(0.99)^{19} \approx 0.1653\). Total likelihood \( \approx 0.9832\).For \(2\%\) defective:\( P(X = 0) = (0.98)^{20} \approx 0.6676\) and \( P(X = 1) = 20(0.02)(0.98)^{19} \approx 0.2720\). Total likelihood \( \approx 0.9396\).For \(5\%\) defective:\( P(X = 0) = (0.95)^{20} \approx 0.3585\) and \( P(X = 1) = 20(0.05)(0.95)^{19} \approx 0.3774\). Total likelihood \( \approx 0.7359\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Probability
Binomial probability is a statistical method useful for determining the likelihood of a specific number of successes in a set of independent and identical trials. Here, each trial can lead to two outcomes: defect or no defect, thus it's considered a binomial trial.
For example, in quality control, binomial probability helps calculate the chance of detecting exactly one defective item from a batch of 20 parts where each part has a certain defect rate.
The binomial probability formula is:
  • \( P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \)
Here, \(n\) is the total number of trials, \(k\) is the number of successes (defects), \(p\) is the probability of a success on each trial, and \( \binom{n}{k} \) is the binomial coefficient. This formula calculates the probability of obtaining \(k\) successes in \(n\) trials, given the probability of success \(p\) per trial.
Defect Rate
The defect rate in quality control refers to the percentage of items in a batch that are defective. Analyzing defect rates is a crucial part of maintaining product quality and can significantly impact the profitability and reputation of a company. For instance, a defect rate of 1% implies that out of every 100 items, 1 is expected to be defective.
Understanding the defect rate helps companies anticipate how many defective units they might find in a sample batch, and to make informed decisions about accepting or rejecting the batch. Higher defect rates typically indicate poorer quality and can lead to increased costs and product recalls.
In our exercise, we examine different scenarios with defect rates of 1%, 2%, and 5% to calculate the likelihood that a batch will be accepted or rejected. The lower the defect rate, the higher the probability of accepting the batch, making it an essential measure in quality assessments.
Quality Control
Quality control is a process by which entities review the quality of all factors involved in production. It involves operational techniques and activities that sustain the integrity of a product at its intended standard.
Importance of Quality Control includes:
  • Maintaining high-quality standards while minimizing defects.
  • Ensuring product reliability and customer satisfaction.
  • Avoiding costly post-manufacturing repairs and adjustments.
End-to-end quality control results from a combination of inspection, testing, and statistical techniques to guarantee consistency in production. In our exercise, acceptance sampling is used—a statistical tool in quality control to decide if a batch of products should be accepted or rejected based on a sample inspection.
By assessing a small portion of the batch, quality control helps in identifying whether the lot meets the compliance requirements with acceptable defect rates. This ensures that only those goods that meet quality standards reach the customer, thereby enhancing their trust and satisfaction.

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