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It is estimated that \(0.5 \%\) of the callers to the Customer Service department of Dell Inc. will receive a busy signal. What is the probability that of today's 1,200 callers, at least 5 received a busy signal?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is approximately 0.762.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to find the probability that at least 5 out of 1,200 callers receive a busy signal. We know that the probability of a single call receiving a busy signal is 0.5% or 0.005 in decimal form.
02

Applying the Binomial Distribution

Since we have a fixed number of trials (1,200 calls) and a fixed probability of success (a call receiving a busy signal, with probability 0.005), we can model this problem using a binomial distribution where - The number of trials, \(n\), is 1,200.- The probability of success, \(p\), is 0.005.
03

Computing Binomial Parameters

Calculate the expected number of busy signals, which is given by \(np\):\[np = 1200 \times 0.005 = 6\]This means, on average, we expect 6 callers to receive a busy signal.
04

Computing Cumulative Probability

We need the probability that at least 5 calls receive a busy signal, which can be expressed as 1 minus the probability that fewer than 5 calls receive a busy signal:\[P(X \geq 5) = 1 - P(X < 5)\]Use the binomial distribution formula or a software/statistics table to find \(P(X < 5)\), which is the cumulative probability from 0 to 4.
05

Calculating and Interpreting Results

Using a binomial probability table or a calculator, find \(P(X < 5)\), then:\[P(X \geq 5) = 1 - (P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) + P(X=4))\]Perform the calculations or input the values to obtain \(P(X \geq 5)\).
06

Conclusion

After calculation using the binomial formula or appropriate statistical software:- We find that the probability \(P(X \geq 5)\) is approximately 0.762.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability
Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur, commonly expressed as a number between 0 and 1. A probability of 0 means an event will not occur, while a probability of 1 means it is certain to happen.
In the context of the Dell Inc. problem, we are interested in the probability of callers receiving a busy signal. The given probability for a single call to receive a busy signal is 0.5%, or 0.005 in decimal form.
This small number tells us that it is quite rare for a caller to receive a busy signal. Nevertheless, when considering 1,200 callers, understanding this probability becomes essential for determining outcomes like at least 5 callers experiencing a busy signal.
To tackle problems like these, we use probability distributions that fit our scenario, such as the binomial distribution, which helps in calculating the likelihood of events with specified conditions.
Expected Value
The expected value in probability is a key concept that provides a measure of the center of a probability distribution. It's essentially the average result that we'd expect over many trials of an experiment.
In problems involving the binomial distribution, like our example, the expected value is calculated by multiplying the total number of trials ( ext{x} ) by the probability of success ( ext{p} ).
This can be expressed as E(X) = np , where E(X) denotes the expected value, n is the number of trials, and p is the probability of a single success. So, with 1,200 callers and a probability of success of 0.005, the expected number of callers who receive a busy signal is E(X) = 1200 imes 0.005 = 6 .
This means we generally expect 6 clients to experience a busy signal on any given day with 1,200 calls. Knowing the expected value helps businesses and analysts to plan and make informed decisions based on average outcomes.
Cumulative Probability
Cumulative probability is a way to express the likelihood that a random variable is less than or equal to a certain value. This is important when addressing questions like "What is the probability of at least 5 successes?"
In our Dell Inc. example, you calculate cumulative probability to determine the likelihood that fewer than 5 callers receive a busy signal and then subtract from 1 to find the probability that at least 5 callers receive one.
This involves summing the probabilities of all outcomes from the smallest to a specified number. We use cumulative probabilities in steps like finding P(X < 5) , allowing us to find P(X ≥ 5) by using 1 - P(X < 5) .
Cumulative probabilities simplify complex calculations by aggregating multiple outcomes into a single figure, which we can then use to answer broader probability questions.
Statistics Table
A statistics table is a useful tool for finding probabilities associated with statistical distributions, such as the binomial distribution. These tables list probabilities of various outcomes given specific parameters like the number of trials and the probability of success per trial.
In our example, instead of calculating each probability from X=0 to X=4 individually when computing P(X < 5) , a statistics table can be used to quickly find the cumulative probability.
By referring to these tables or using statistical software, we can efficiently locate the exact probabilities or cumulative probabilities needed. This streamlines the calculation process, making it more accessible even for those not deeply versed in statistical computation.
Utilizing a statistics table is particularly beneficial in reducing computational errors and saving time, offering an efficient way to solve probability problems, especially those involving large datasets.

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