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It is estimated that 60 percent of U.S. households subscribe to cable TV. You would like to verify this statement for your class in mass communications. If you want your estimate to be within 5 percentage points. with a 95 percent level of confidence, how large of a sample is required?

Short Answer

Expert verified
A sample size of 369 households is required.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to determine the sample size required to estimate the proportion of U.S. households subscribing to cable TV within a margin of error of 5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
02

Identify Given Values

The percentage of households is 60%, implying the success probability \( p = 0.60 \). The margin of error \( E \) we want is 5 percentage points, or \( 0.05 \). The confidence level is 95%, so the corresponding \( z \)-value is 1.96 (from the standard normal distribution table).
03

Use the Sample Size Formula

The formula to calculate the sample size for a proportion is:\[n = \left(\frac{z^2 \cdot p \cdot (1-p)}{E^2}\right)\]Substitute the given values: \( z = 1.96 \), \( p = 0.60 \), and \( E = 0.05 \).
04

Calculate Intermediate Values

Calculate \( p \cdot (1-p) \): \[ p \cdot (1-p) = 0.60 \times 0.40 = 0.24\]
05

Compute the Sample Size

Substitute the intermediate value and other known values into the formula:\[n = \left(\frac{1.96^2 \times 0.24}{0.05^2}\right) = \left(\frac{3.8416 \times 0.24}{0.0025}\right)\]\[n = \left(\frac{0.921984}{0.0025}\right) = 368.7936\]Round up to the nearest whole number to ensure the sample size is large enough.
06

Round and Conclude

The calculated sample size is approximately 368.7936, so we round up to 369. Therefore, a sample size of 369 households is needed.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Level
When dealing with sample sizes, the confidence level is an essential concept. It tells us how confident we can be in our estimates. For example, a 95% confidence level means that if we were to repeated the study an infinite number of times, 95% of the time, the true population parameter would lie within the calculated confidence interval.
This concept is crucial because it gives us an idea of how reliable our sample is. A higher confidence level would mean a wider confidence interval, which requires a larger sample size.
In the original exercise, the confidence level is set at 95%. It informs us that our estimate should be reliable 95 times out of 100 if repeated under similar conditions.
Margin of Error
The margin of error indicates how much the sample results can differ from the actual population parameter. It's like a cushion around our estimate, showing the range within which we expect the true proportion to lie.
For the exercise at hand, the chosen margin of error is 5 percentage points, which means our estimate can be off by as much as 5 percent in either direction. This margin of error is important because it directly affects the sample size—for smaller margins of error, larger samples are needed.
By setting a smaller margin of error, we aim for more precise estimates, meaning the "+/-" range around our estimate becomes narrower, resulting in higher accuracy.
Success Probability
Success probability in the context of sample size determination refers to the proportion of the population having the characteristic of interest. In the exercise, it is estimated that 60% of U.S. households subscribe to cable TV, making the success probability (\( p \)) 0.60.
This probability figures into the sample size formula, impacting how large of a sample is needed. Essentially, it represents our expectation or prediction about the population.
Knowing the success probability helps us estimate variability within the data, guiding how precisely our sample should reflect the population.
Z-value
The z-value is a crucial statistic used in the process of sample size determination, especially when working with proportions. It represents the number of standard deviations away from the mean that a data point is. For the confidence level used in this exercise, which is 95%, the z-value is 1.96.
This value is derived from the standard normal distribution table and acts as a multiplier in our sample size calculations. The z-value influences how concentrated or spread out our confidence interval will be, providing a bridge between our desired confidence level and the margin of error.
By applying a z-value, we effectively determine how certain we wish our data to predict the population parameter within the specified confidence interval.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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