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A normal population has a mean of 75 and a standard deviation of \(5 .\) You select a sample of \(40 .\) Compute the probability the sample mean is: a. Less than 74 . b. Between 74 and 76 . c. Between 76 and 77 . d. Greater than 77 .

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) 0.1038, b) 0.7924, c) 0.0981, d) 0.0057.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Given Information

The population mean, \( \mu \), is 75 and the population standard deviation, \( \sigma \), is 5. The sample size, \( n \), is 40.
02

Compute Standard Error

The standard error of the mean is calculated using the formula: \( SE = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \). Substituting the given values, \( SE = \frac{5}{\sqrt{40}} \approx 0.7906 \).
03

Calculate Z-score for Part a

To find the probability that the sample mean is less than 74, compute the Z-score: \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{SE} \). Here, \( X = 74 \), so \( Z = \frac{74 - 75}{0.7906} \approx -1.2649 \).
04

Find Probability for Part a

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, find \( P(Z < -1.2649) \), which is approximately 0.1038.
05

Calculate Z-scores for Part b

For \( X = 74 \) and \( X = 76 \), calculate Z-scores: \( Z_{74} = \frac{74 - 75}{0.7906} \approx -1.2649 \) and \( Z_{76} = \frac{76 - 75}{0.7906} \approx 1.2649 \).
06

Find Probability for Part b

Find \( P(-1.2649 < Z < 1.2649) \), which equates to \( P(Z < 1.2649) - P(Z < -1.2649) \). The values are approximately 0.8962 - 0.1038 = 0.7924.
07

Calculate Z-scores for Part c

For \( X = 76 \) and \( X = 77 \), calculate Z-scores: \( Z_{76} = \frac{76 - 75}{0.7906} \approx 1.2649 \) and \( Z_{77} = \frac{77 - 75}{0.7906} \approx 2.5298 \).
08

Find Probability for Part c

Find \( P(1.2649 < Z < 2.5298) \), which is \( P(Z < 2.5298) - P(Z < 1.2649) \). The values are approximately 0.9943 - 0.8962 = 0.0981.
09

Calculate Z-score for Part d

For \( X = 77 \), calculate the Z-score: \( Z_{77} = \frac{77 - 75}{0.7906} \approx 2.5298 \).
10

Find Probability for Part d

Find \( P(Z > 2.5298) \), which is equal to 1 - \( P(Z < 2.5298) \). The value is approximately 1 - 0.9943 = 0.0057.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Mean
The population mean, often symbolized as \( \mu \), represents the average value of a set of numbers distributed normally in a population. For the normal distribution, it is the peak point of the bell curve.
This parameter is crucial as it helps in understanding the overall tendency of the data.

In our exercise, the population mean is given as 75. This means that the average value from the entire set would be 75 if no variance occurred. The importance of knowing this lies in how it affects calculations such as probability and deviations.
If the mean changes, the entire outcome of the sample-based probability would change as well.

Key points about the population mean:
  • It is critical for predicting the expected value of sample results.
  • It provides a central value from which deviations are measured.
The population mean is foundational in statistical analysis, laying the groundwork for understanding trends and making predictions based on a sample of data.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation, denoted as \( \sigma \), measures the amount of variability or dispersion in a set of data. In a normal distribution, about 68% of data falls within one standard deviation from the mean.
In our example, the standard deviation is 5, indicating that most of the data would lie within 5 units of the mean (75), considering the 68-95-99.7 rule.

This measure is indispensable as it tells us how spread out the data points are around the mean, thereby affecting the shape of the distribution curve.
When interpreting standard deviation in the context of samples, it helps determine the reliability of the sample means' estimates of the population mean.

Important aspects of standard deviation include:
  • A smaller standard deviation means the data points are closer to the mean.
  • A larger standard deviation indicates more variability and a wider spread of data points.

Understanding standard deviation is essential because it affects the calculation of probabilities by providing insight into the data's spread and variability.
Sample Size
Sample size (\( n \)) is a crucial concept as it refers to the number of observations taken from the population to form a sample. In statistical analysis, a larger sample size generally provides more reliable results.
For our exercise, the sample size is 40, which is sufficient enough to apply the Central Limit Theorem, suggesting that the sampling distribution of the sample mean will approximate normality even if the original data isn't perfectly normal.

Sample size influences the standard error of the mean, which is calculated by the formula \( SE = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \).
As the sample size increases, the standard error decreases, providing a more accurate estimate of the population mean.

Key points regarding sample size:
  • Larger samples provide more accurate and stable estimates.
  • Sample size directly impacts the standard error, affecting confidence and hypothesis testing.
  • It's important to balance between sample size and practical constraints like cost and time.
The sample size plays a fundamental role in the reliability of statistical conclusions drawn from sample data.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is the process of determining the likelihood of a specific event occurring. When dealing with normally distributed data, this often involves using Z-scores.
A Z-score represents the number of standard deviations a specific observation is from the mean. It is calculated using the formula: \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{SE} \).

In our scenario, we computed Z-scores to find probabilities for specific sample means relative to the population mean. For example, finding the probability that a sample mean is less than 74 involves calculating \( Z \) and then finding the corresponding probability from a standard normal distribution table.
Such calculations allow us to use statistical tables or calculators to determine the probability of events based on the area under the standard normal curve.

Essential aspects of probability calculation include:
  • Transforming sample means into Z-scores helps in determining probabilities.
  • Probability calculations offer insight into the relative position of the sample mean.
  • They are fundamental in hypothesis testing and predicting future events based on historical data.

Probability calculations are integral to using statistical analyses to make informed predictions and decisions in many fields.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Scrapper Elevator Company has 20 sales representatives who sell its product throughout the United States and Canada. The number of units sold last month by each representative is listed below. Assume these sales figures to be the population values. a. Draw a graph showing the population distribution. b. Compute the mean of the population. c. Select five random samples of 5 each. Compute the mean of each sample. Use the methods described in this chapter and \(\underline{\text { Appendix }} \mathrm{B} .6\) to determine the items to be included in the sample. d. Compare the mean of the sampling distribution of the sample means to the population mean. Would you expect the two values to be about the same? e. Draw a histogram of the sample means. Do you notice a difference in the shape of the distribution of sample means compared to the shape of the population distribution?

The rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Southern California follows the normal distribution with a mean of \(\$ 2,200\) per month and a standard deviation of \(\$ 250\) per month. The distribution of the monthly costs does not follow the normal distribution. In fact, it is positively skewed. What is the probability of selecting a sample of 50 one-bedroom apartments and finding the mean to be at least \(\$ 1,950\) per month?

You need to find the "typical" or mean annual dividend per share for large banks. You decide to sample six banks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. These banks and their trading symbols follow. a. After numbering the banks from 01 to \(24,\) which banks would be included in a sample if the random numbers were \(14,08,24,25,05,44,02,\) and \(22 ?\) Go to the following website: \(\quad\) http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com. Enter the trading symbol for each of the sampled banks and record the price earnings ratio (P/E ratio). Determine the mean annual dividend per share for the sample of banks. b. Which banks are selected if you use a systematic sample of every fourth bank starting with the random number \(03 ?\)

Answer the following questions in one or two wellconstructed sentences. a. What happens to the standard error of the mean if the sample size is increased? b. What happens to the distribution of the sample means if the sample size in increased? c. When using the distribution of sample means to estimate the population mean, what is the benefit of using larger sample sizes?

Listed below are the 27 Nationwide Insurance agents in the Toledo, Ohio, metropolitan area. We would like to estimate the mean number of years employed with Nationwide. a. We want to select a random sample of four agents. The random numbers are: 02,59,51,25,14,29,77 \(69,\) and \(18 .\) Which dealers would be included in the sample? b. Use the table of random numbers to select your own sample of four agents. c. A sample is to consist of every seventh dealer. The number 04 is selected as the starting point. Which agents will be included in the sample?

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