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Under what conditions will the binomial and the Poisson distributions give roughly the same results?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The binomial and Poisson distributions give similar results when \( n \) is large, \( p \) is small, and \( np < 10 \).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Binomial Distribution

The binomial distribution models the number of successes in a fixed number of independent Bernoulli trials, each with the same probability of success. It is defined by two parameters: the number of trials \( n \) and the probability of success \( p \).
02

Understand the Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution models the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, with a known constant mean rate \( \lambda \) and that occur independently of each other.
03

Describe the Relationship between Binomial and Poisson Distributions

The Poisson distribution can be seen as an approximation of the binomial distribution under certain conditions. When the number of trials \( n \) is large and the probability of success \( p \) is small, the binomial distribution with parameters \( n \) and \( p \) can be approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter \( \lambda = np \).
04

Define Conditions for Approximation

The approximation holds well when \( n \) is high, \( p \) is small, and the mean \( \lambda = np \) is small. As a rule of thumb, this approximation works best when \( n > 20 \) and \( p < 0.05 \), or equivalently, when \( np < 10 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a key concept in statistics that describes the number of successes in a fixed number of independent and identically distributed Bernoulli trials. Each trial has two possible outcomes: success or failure. The notation for a binomial distribution is often given as Binomial(, p), where:
  • \( n \) represents the number of trials.
  • \( p \) is the probability of success in each trial.
Imagine you're flipping a fair coin 10 times. Each coin flip is a trial, and if you wanted to count how many times you get "heads," the number of heads represents a binomial variable. In this case, the probability \( p \) is 0.5 for each trial, and \( n \) is 10.

The binomial distribution is extensively used in various fields, such as biology, economics, and insurance, whenever the outcomes of experiments are binary or binomial in nature.
Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is a different type of statistical distribution that models the number of events occurring within a fixed interval of time or space. This distribution is determined by the mean rate \( \lambda \), which indicates how frequently the event occurs within that interval.
  • \( \lambda \) is the average number of occurrences in the given interval.
For example, imagine you're counting the number of buses arriving at a station per hour. If, on average, 2 buses arrive every hour, \( \lambda \) would be 2. The Poisson distribution gives the probability of a specific number of arrivals during a defined period.

The main characteristic of the Poisson distribution is that these events happen independently. That is, the occurrence of one event doesn't affect the occurrence of another.

This makes the Poisson distribution very useful for practical applications such as predicting the number of calls received by a call center in an hour or the number of typing errors found in a book.
Approximation Conditions
When it comes to statistical distributions, the relationship between the binomial and Poisson distributions can become significant under certain conditions. A Poisson distribution can serve as an approximation to a binomial distribution when the following conditions are met:
  • The number of trials \( n \) is large.
  • The probability of success \( p \) is small.
  • The mean \( \lambda = np \) remains a small number.
This approximation is considered reliable when \( n > 20 \), \( p < 0.05 \), and specifically when the product \( np < 10 \). This rule works because as \( p \) becomes smaller and \( n \) larger, the skew and variance of the binomial distribution become similar to that of the Poisson distribution.

Understanding these conditions is crucial as it allows statisticians to simplify their models under specific scenarios, facilitating easier calculations especially in fields like telecommunications, traffic engineering, and epidemiology.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A recent study conducted by Penn, Shone, and Borland, on behalf of LastMinute.com, revealed that 52 percent of business travelers plan their trips less than two weeks before departure. The study is to be replicated in the tri-state area with a sample of 12 frequent business travelers. a. Develop a probability distribution for the number of travelers who plan their trips within two weeks of departure. b. Find the mean and the standard deviation of this distribution. c. What is the probability exactly 5 of the 12 selected business travelers plan their trips within two weeks of departure? d. What is the probability 5 or fewer of the 12 selected business travelers plan their trips within two weeks of departure?

Can you tell the difference between Coke and Pepsi in a blind taste test? Most people say they can and have a preference for one brand or the other. However, research suggests that people can correctly identify a sample of one of these products only about 60 percent of the time. Suppose we decide to investigate this question and select a sample of 15 college students. a. How many of the 15 students would you expect to correctly identify Coke or Pepsi? b. What is the probability exactly 10 of the students surveyed will correctly identify Coke or Pepsi? C. What is the probability at least 10 of the students will correctly identify Coke or Pepsi?

For each of the following indicate whether the random variable is discrete or continuous. a. The length of time to get a haircut. b. The number of cars a jogger passes each morning while running. c. The number of hits for a team in a high school girls' softball game. d. The number of patients treated at the South Strand Medical Center between 6 and 10 p.m. each night. e. The distance your car traveled on the last fill-up. f. The number of customers at the Oak Street Wendy's who used the drive- through facility. g. The distance between Gainesville, Florida, and all Florida cities with a population of at least 50,000 .

In a Poisson distribution \(\mu=4\). a. What is the probability that \(x=2 ?\) b. What is the probability that \(x \leq 2 ?\) c. What is the probability that \(x>2 ?\)

Textbook authors and publishers work very hard to minimize the number of errors in a text. However, some errors are unavoidable. Mr. J. A. Carmen, statistics editor, reports that the mean number of errors per chapter is 0.8 . What is the probability that there are less than 2 errors in a particular chapter?

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