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The estimate of the population proportion is to be within plus or minus .05, with a 95 percent level of confidence. The best estimate of the population proportion is . \(15 .\) How large a sample is required?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The required sample size is 196.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Known Values

We know the desired margin of error (E) is 0.05, the confidence level is 95%, and the estimated population proportion (\( \hat{p} \)) is 0.15. The complement of the proportion (\( q = 1 - \hat{p} \)) is 0.85.
02

Find the Z-score for the Confidence Level

For a 95% confidence level, the critical value (Z) corresponding to the confidence coefficient is 1.96. This Z-score is obtained from the standard normal distribution table.
03

Set Up the Formula for Sample Size

The formula for determining the sample size needed for a given margin of error in a proportion estimate is: \[ n = \left( \frac{Z^2 \cdot \hat{p} \cdot q}{E^2} \right) \] where \( n \) is the sample size, \( Z \) is the Z-score, \( \hat{p} \) is the estimated proportion, \( q \) is 1 - \( \hat{p} \), and \( E \) is the margin of error.
04

Plug Values into the Formula

Substitute the known values into the sample size formula: \[ n = \left( \frac{1.96^2 \cdot 0.15 \cdot 0.85}{0.05^2} \right) \]
05

Calculate the Sample Size

First, compute the numerator: \[ 1.96^2 = 3.8416 \] Then, multiply: \[ 3.8416 \cdot 0.15 \cdot 0.85 = 0.489564 \] Now, compute the denominator: \[ 0.05^2 = 0.0025 \] Finally, divide to find \( n \): \[ n = \frac{0.489564}{0.0025} = 195.8256 \]
06

Round Up to the Nearest Whole Number

Since a sample size must be a whole number, round up 195.8256 to 196 to ensure that the sample proportion will be within the specified margin of error.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Proportion
When we discuss sample size determination, one of the crucial elements is the population proportion, which is often denoted by \( \hat{p} \). This value represents the best estimate of the percentage of the total population that possesses a certain characteristic. For example, if we're examining a population where 15% of individuals have a specific trait, the estimated population proportion, \( \hat{p} \), would be 0.15.

If you know the estimated population proportion and its complement, \( q = 1 - \hat{p} \), it allows you to calculate the variance in the data. For accurate statistical analysis, these estimates can be derived from prior research, pilot studies, or expert judgment.

Understanding and estimating the population proportion accurately is critical. It directly affects the sample size needed to have reliable study outcomes. By using the estimates, researchers can plan their studies effectively, ensuring that they gather enough data for meaningful conclusions.
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval is a range of values that is used to estimate an unknown population parameter. In the context of sample size determination, a confidence interval gives us a range within which we can expect our sample proportion to fall. It's expressed as a percentage, like 95%, which indicates that if we took many samples, 95% of them would contain the actual population proportion within this interval.

The width of a confidence interval depends on several factors:
  • The sample size: Larger samples lead to narrower intervals.
  • The confidence level: Higher confidence means a wider interval.
  • The variability in the sample: More variability results in a wider interval.
The confidence interval provides a buffer for the variability and uncertainty inherent in sampling processes. By understanding confidence intervals, researchers can better interpret the accuracy and reliability of their estimates.
Margin of Error
Margin of error is a crucial concept in determining how precise your sample estimate needs to be. It's the amount that we expect the sample proportion to differ from the true population proportion. For instance, with a margin of error of 0.05, we expect our sample estimate to be within 5 percentage points of the true population value.

The desired margin of error affects the sample size directly. A smaller margin of error requires a larger sample because it indicates a need for more precision. Conversely, if a larger error is acceptable, a smaller sample size may suffice.

When calculating sample size, the margin of error (denoted as \( E \)) is integrated into the formula, influencing how large the sample needs to be to ensure that the results fall within the desired error range. By carefully selecting the margin of error, researchers balance the need for accuracy with the practical realities of data collection.
Z-score
The Z-score is a statistic used to describe a value's position within a standard normal distribution. It's important when calculating the sample size, as it represents the desired confidence level of the estimate. For example, a Z-score of 1.96 corresponds to a 95% confidence level, indicating moderate statistical confidence.

Z-scores are critical for determining the sample size because they help to scale the variability of data. In the context of proportion estimations, a higher Z-score would reflect a higher confidence level, and thus would typically result in a larger sample size. This ensures that the estimate is accurate and falls within the specified confidence interval.

To find the appropriate Z-score for your study, you can use standard Z-tables or statistical software. It's an essential component, as knowing your confidence level allows you to determine the right Z-score, which in turn impacts the final calculation for sample size needed.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

You are to conduct a sample survey to determine the mean family income in a rural area of central Florida. The question is, how many families should be sampled? In a pilot sample of 10 families, the standard deviation of the sample was \(\$ 500 .\) The sponsor of the survey wants you to use the 95 percent confidence level. The estimate is to be within \(\$ 100 .\) How many families should be interviewed?

As part of an annual review of its accounts, a discount brokerage selects a random sample of 36 customers. Their accounts are reviewed for total account valuation, which showed a mean of \(\$ 32,000,\) with a sample standard deviation of \(\$ 8,200 .\) What is a 90 percent confidence interval for the mean account valuation of the population of customers?

Forty-nine items are randomly selected from a population of 500 items. The sample mean is 40 and the sample standard deviation \(9 .\) Develop a 99 percent confidence interval for the population mean.

A survey is being planned to determine the mean amount of time corporation executives watch television. A pilot survey indicated that the mean time per week is 12 hours, with a standard deviation of 3 hours. It is desired to estimate the mean viewing time within one-quarter hour. The 95 percent level of confidence is to be used. How many executives should be surveyed?

A sample of 10 observations is selected from a normal population for which the population standard deviation is known to be \(5 .\) The sample mean is \(20 .\) a. Determine the standard error of the mean. b. Explain why we can use formula \((9-1)\) to determine the 95 percent confidence interval even though the sample is less than 30 . c. Determine the 95 percent confidence interval for the population mean.

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