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There are 300 welders employed at the Maine Shipyards Corporation. A sample of 30 welders revealed that 18 graduated from a registered welding course. Construct the 95 percent confidence interval for the proportion of all welders who graduated from a registered welding course.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval is between 0.425 and 0.775.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Sample Proportion

First, we need to determine the sample proportion of welders who graduated from a registered welding course. Given that 30 welders were sampled and 18 of them graduated, the sample proportion \( p \) is \( \frac{18}{30} = 0.6 \).
02

Determine the Sample Size and Population

The sample size \( n \) is 30, as 30 welders were sampled. The total number of welders employed at the shipyard \( N \) is 300. These values are essential in finding the confidence interval.
03

Find the Standard Error of Proportion

The standard error (SE) of a proportion is calculated using the formula: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \] Substitute \( p = 0.6 \) and \( n = 30 \) to find the SE: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.6 \times 0.4}{30}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.24}{30}} = 0.0894 \]
04

Determine the Z-Value for 95% Confidence

For a 95% confidence interval, the Z-value from the standard normal distribution is 1.96. This is a standard value used for 95% confidence intervals.
05

Calculate the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval is calculated using the formula: \[ \text{CI} = p \pm Z \times SE \] Substitute the values: \[ \text{CI} = 0.6 \pm 1.96 \times 0.0894 = 0.6 \pm 0.175 \] This gives us the interval: \[ 0.425 \leq p \leq 0.775 \]
06

Interpret the Confidence Interval

The 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all welders who graduated from a registered welding course is between 42.5% and 77.5%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
The sample proportion is a fundamental concept in statistics, acting as an estimate of the true population proportion. In our exercise, you're looking at a situation involving welders at the Maine Shipyards Corporation. From a sample of 30 welders, 18 were found to have graduated from a registered welding course. The sample proportion, denoted by \( p \), is calculated simply by dividing the number of successful outcomes by the total sample size.

For this problem, it is calculated as follows: \( p = \frac{18}{30} = 0.6 \). This means that 60% of the sampled welders graduated from a course, providing us an initial glimpse into the entire workforce's educational background.

While the sample proportion gives an idea, it’s important to understand that this is just an estimate based on the sample, not the entire 300 welders. That's why we move on to calculate the confidence interval, to gain more insight.
Standard Error
The standard error of a statistic is crucial in statistics as it gives insight into the variability or precision of our sample estimate. In the context of proportions, the standard error (SE) measures how much the sample proportion is expected to fluctuate from the actual population proportion.

It is calculated using the formula: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \] where \( p \) is the sample proportion and \( n \) is the sample size.

For the problem at hand, substituting \( p = 0.6 \) and \( n = 30 \), we find:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.6 \times 0.4}{30}} = 0.0894 \] This value, 0.0894, reflects the degree of variation we might expect from the sample proportion if we were to take multiple samples. - A smaller SE indicates that our sample proportion is expected to be closer to the true population proportion. - A larger SE suggests more variability.
Z-Value
The Z-Value is a concept deeply embedded in statistical inference, representing the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. Often, it is associated with standard normal distributions.

When constructing confidence intervals, particularly for a 95% confidence level, statisticians utilize the Z-Value to determine how far from the mean the interval should extend to incorporate the desired confidence level.

For a 95% confidence level, the Z-Value is 1.96. This is a standard value that means that we expect 95% of sample proportions to fall within 1.96 standard deviations of the population proportion if we were to take repeated samples.

Using this Z-Value, together with the standard error, helps in defining the bounds of the confidence interval, giving us a clearer picture of the true population proportion's likely range.
Population Proportion
The population proportion represents the true proportion of members in the entire population that possess a particular attribute. In this exercise, it would signify the proportion of all 300 welders at Maine Shipyards Corporation who graduated from a registered welding course.

When working with samples, we use the sample proportion as an estimate of this population proportion. However, it's just an approximation, susceptible to sampling variability. To counterbalance this and have a better estimation of the population proportion, we calculate a confidence interval.

By combining the sample proportion, standard error, and Z-Value, we establish a range where we believe the true population proportion lies within a certain confidence level (here, 95%). This approach allows us to infer information about the entire group of welders from just a sample, offering a practical means of making data-driven decisions or predictions. Understanding and calculating these intervals is key in many fields where you can't feasibly measure every member of a population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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