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Brooks Insurance, Inc. wishes to offer life insurance to men age 60 via the Internet. Mortality tables indicate the likelihood of a 60-year-old man surviving another year is .98. If the policy is offered to five men age 60 : a. What is the probability all five men survive the year? b. What is the probability at least one does not survive?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 90.392% all survive b. 9.608% at least one does not survive

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to find probabilities about a group of 5 men aged 60 based on survival probabilities. Specifically, we are assessing the chances of all surviving another year and the chances of at least one not surviving.
02

Calculate Probability of All Surviving

The probability of one man surviving a year is 0.98. To find the probability that all five men survive, we multiply the individual probability by itself five times since their survival events are independent. This is represented by the formula: \( P(\text{all survive}) = 0.98^5 \).
03

Compute the Result for All Surviving

Calculate \( 0.98^5 \) using a calculator: \( 0.98^5 \approx 0.90392 \). This means there's a 90.392% chance that all five men survive the year.
04

Calculate Probability of at Least One Not Surviving

The probability of at least one not surviving is the complement of the probability that all survive. This is given by \( P(\text{at least one not survive}) = 1 - P(\text{all survive}) \).
05

Compute the Result for At Least One Not Surviving

Given \( P(\text{all survive}) = 0.90392 \), we find \( P(\text{at least one not survive}) = 1 - 0.90392 = 0.09608 \). There is a 9.608% chance that at least one of the five men does not survive the year.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mortality Tables
Mortality tables, also known as life tables or actuarial tables, play a crucial role in probability theory within the context of life insurance and demographic studies. These tables provide the statistical likelihood of a person's life expectancy, typically based on age, gender, and other health factors. For instance, in the context of the Brooks Insurance problem, the tables grant us the probability that a 60-year-old man will survive for another year as 0.98. This means there is a 98% chance of survival for a man at this age.

Mortality tables are constructed using historical data and statistical analysis to predict the future life expectancy of different demographics. They are essential for life insurance companies as they help in determining the risk associated with insuring individuals and setting premium rates accordingly.
  • The higher the survival probability, the lower the risk for insurance companies—the likelihood that an insured person will stay alive reduces the chance of payout.
  • Accuracy in mortality tables is crucial for the financial health of life insurance firms, ensuring that rates are competitive yet sufficient to cover anticipated claims.
Independent Events
Independent events are fundamental concepts in probability theory. These are scenarios where the outcome of one event does not impact the outcome of another. In the solution given for Brooks Insurance, the survival of each 60-year-old man from one year to the next is considered an independent event.

The independence of events allows us to calculate joint probabilities by multiplying the probabilities of individual events. For example, even though we know the probability of one man surviving is 0.98, the chance of all five men surviving can be calculated as 0.98 raised to the power of five: \[P(\text{all survive}) = 0.98^5\]This results from the assumption that each man's survival is not influenced by the others. This principle simplifies complex calculations in statistics and is beneficial when evaluating multiple probabilities that, due to their independence, need not be conducted in sequence but can be determined mathematically more straightforwardly.
  • Understanding the independence of events is essential in both practical and theoretical applications, such as risk assessment and statistical forecasting.
  • It underscores the random nature of each event, allowing for precise probability computations in a broad range of fields beyond just insurance, such as game theory, finance, and experimental design.
Complement Rule
The complement rule is a handy probabilistic tool used when it is easier to calculate the probability of an event not occurring than of it occurring. This rule states that the probability of an event happening is equal to one minus the probability of the event not happening. In the case of Brooks Insurance:
The problem initially calculates the probability that all five men survive the year. To find the probability that at least one does not survive, we use the complement rule: \[P(\text{at least one not survive}) = 1 - P(\text{all survive})\]Using the complement rule, when the probability of all five men surviving was computed as approximately 0.90392, it followed that the chance of at least one not surviving is 0.09608.

This approach benefits significantly from situations where computing direct probabilities might be intricate or computationally heavy. The complement simplifies these scenarios, making it a practical tool in various probabilistic analyses.
  • The complement rule is widely applicable in quality control, risk management, and many other sectors.
  • It offers simplicity in determining probabilities where direct calculation might be convoluted or non-intuitive.

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