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An investor owns three common stocks. Each stock, independent of the others, has equally likely chances of (1) increasing in value, (2) decreasing in value, or (3) remaining the same value. List the possible outcomes of this experiment. Estimate the probability at least two of the stocks increase in value.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is \(\frac{16}{27}\).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Experiment

We are dealing with three stocks, each having three outcomes: increase, decrease, or remain the same. The total number of possible outcomes is calculated by considering all combinations of these three stocks.
02

Calculate Total Possible Outcomes

Each stock has 3 possible outcomes and there are 3 stocks. Therefore, the total number of outcomes is calculated as \(3^3 = 27\).
03

List Possible Outcomes

The outcomes for each stock are labeled as follows: I for increase, D for decrease, and R for remain the same. We list all combinations for three stocks, such as (I,I,I), (I,I,D), (I,I,R), etc. until we list all 27 combinations.
04

Identify Favorable Outcomes

To find the probability that at least two stocks increase in value, count the scenarios where there are at least two 'I's. The favorable outcomes include combinations like (I,I,I), (I,I,D), (I,I,R), etc.
05

Count Favorable Outcomes

There are 4 outcomes where all three stocks increase: (I,I,I). There are 6 outcomes where exactly two stocks increase while one remains the same, and another 6 where exactly two stocks increase and the third decreases. This totals 4 + 6 + 6 = 16 favorable outcomes.
06

Calculate Probability

The probability of at least two stocks increasing is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes. This is \(\frac{16}{27}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a fascinating field in mathematics that deals with counting, arranging, and combining objects.
In our exercise, it plays a crucial role in determining the number of possible outcomes for the three stocks.

Each stock can either increase, decrease, or remain the same, making three possible results per stock. When dealing with several independent items, to find the total number of outcomes, we use the multiplication principle of combinatorics. - Each of the three stocks has three independent outcomes.- Thus, to find the total number of combinations, we calculate \(3^3 = 27\). This result represents all the potential scenarios for these stocks. Combinatorial calculations help simplify complex problems by providing a systematic method to count possibilities.
Random Variables
Random variables are a key concept in probability theory, representing outcomes of random processes.
In this exercise, each stock can be thought of as a random variable. A random variable can take on different values, each corresponding to a specific outcome. For our stocks, these are: - Increase (I) - Decrease (D) - Remain the same (R) Each outcome is considered discrete because it falls into one of these defined categories. By treating each stock as a random variable, we can analyze their behavior collectively. This helps in predicting probabilities for combinations of outcomes such as getting at least two stocks to increase in value.
Outcome Probability
Outcome probability involves estimating how likely certain events or scenarios are to occur.
Let's apply this to our stock example.To find the probability that at least two stocks increase, we must first identify all favorable outcomes. Here are the steps to estimate the probability:- We identified 4 scenarios where all three stocks increase, such as (I,I,I).- Additionally, there are 6 scenarios each where exactly two stocks increase with one remaining unchanged, or one decreasing, such as (I,I,D), or (I,I,R).So in total, there are 16 favorable outcomes where at least two stocks increase (4 + 6 + 6 = 16). The probability of these events is calculated by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes: \[ P(\text{at least two stocks increase}) = \frac{16}{27} \]This fraction represents the likelihood of seeing at least two stocks increase in value, giving the investor a quantifiable chance of success.

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