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The research department at the home office of New Hampshire Insurance conducts ongoing research on the causes of automobile accidents, the characteristics of the drivers, and so on. A random sample of 400 policies written on single persons revealed 120 had at least one accident in the previous three-year period. Similarly, a sample of 600 policies written on married persons revealed that 150 had been in at least one accident. At the . 05 significance level, is there a significant difference in the proportions of single and married persons having an accident during a three-year period?

Short Answer

Expert verified
There is no significant difference in the proportions of accidents between singles and married individuals at the 0.05 level.

Step by step solution

01

Set Up Hypotheses

We need to determine whether there's a significant difference in the proportions of single and married individuals with at least one accident. Our null hypothesis \( H_0 \) is that there is no difference in the proportions, i.e., \( p_1 = p_2 \). The alternative hypothesis \( H_a \) is that there is a difference, i.e., \( p_1 eq p_2 \).
02

Calculate Sample Proportions

Calculate the sample proportions for single and married individuals. For singles, \( \hat{p}_1 = \frac{120}{400} = 0.30 \). For married individuals, \( \hat{p}_2 = \frac{150}{600} = 0.25 \).
03

Compute the Pooled Proportion

The pooled proportion \( \hat{p} \) is calculated as follows: \[ \hat{p} = \frac{120 + 150}{400 + 600} = \frac{270}{1000} = 0.27 \]
04

Calculate Test Statistic

Use the formula for the test statistic for two proportions: \[ z = \frac{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2}{\sqrt{\hat{p} (1 - \hat{p}) (\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2})}} \] Substituting the values, \( n_1 = 400 \) and \( n_2 = 600 \), we get: \[ z = \frac{0.30 - 0.25}{\sqrt{0.27 \times 0.73 \times \left( \frac{1}{400} + \frac{1}{600} \right)}} \]
05

Calculate Standard Error and z-value

Calculate the standard error, \( SE = \sqrt{0.27 \times 0.73 \times \left( \frac{1}{400} + \frac{1}{600} \right)} = 0.0281 \). Then, calculate \( z = \frac{0.30 - 0.25}{0.0281} \approx 1.78 \).
06

Determine Critical Value

At a 0.05 significance level for a two-tailed test, the critical z-values are -1.96 and 1.96.
07

Compare and Make Decision

Since the calculated \( z \approx 1.78 \) does not exceed the critical value of 1.96, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportions
Sample proportions are calculated by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of observations in a sample. In hypothesis testing, understanding sample proportions is crucial because they help assess the behavior of a population based on a smaller subset.

In our example, we have two groups: single individuals and married individuals. For the single individuals, 120 out of 400 policies involved accidents. Thus, the sample proportion for singles is calculated as \[ \hat{p}_1 = \frac{120}{400} = 0.30 \]

For the married individuals, 150 out of 600 policies involved accidents. This yields a sample proportion of \[ \hat{p}_2 = \frac{150}{600} = 0.25 \]

These proportions represent the observed likelihood of accidents happening in each group over the given period. They are key inputs for further analysis in hypothesis testing.
Pooled Proportion
The pooled proportion is an average proportion that weights both sample proportions by their respective sample sizes. It is used when testing for differences between two population proportions.

To find the pooled proportion, we sum the number of favorable outcomes from both samples and divide by the total number of observations across both samples. In the problem, we have:\[ \hat{p} = \frac{120 + 150}{400 + 600} = \frac{270}{1000} = 0.27 \]

This pooled proportion (\( 0.27 \)) is crucial since it provides a common reference point for determining the variability when comparing two proportions. It is especially important when using formulas to calculate the test statistic for differences between proportions.
Test Statistic
A test statistic in hypothesis testing compares the observed data to what is expected under the null hypothesis. It helps to determine whether the results are statistically significant.

In tests involving proportions, the formula for the test statistic (\( z \) value) considers the difference between sample proportions, the pooled proportion, and the sample sizes. For our example:\[ z = \frac{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2}{\sqrt{\hat{p} (1 - \hat{p}) \left( \frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2} \right)}} \]

Plugging in our values (\( n_1 = 400 \), \( n_2 = 600 \)), we compute:\[ z = \frac{0.30 - 0.25}{\sqrt{0.27 \times 0.73 \times \left( \frac{1}{400} + \frac{1}{600} \right)}} \]

This test statistic helps determine if the difference in proportions is significant enough to reject the null hypothesis.
Critical Value
In hypothesis testing, a critical value defines the threshold beyond which we would reject the null hypothesis. It is derived from the desired level of significance, commonly denoted by \( \alpha \). A high significance level means strong evidence is needed to reject the null hypothesis.

For a two-tailed test at the 0.05 significance level, the critical z-values are -1.96 and 1.96. These values define the rejection regions in a standard normal distribution.

In our exercise, the calculated z-score of approximately 1.78 does not exceed the boundaries set by our critical values. Since it lies within these bounds, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. This implies that the observed difference in accident proportions between single and married individuals is not statistically significant at the 5% level.

Understanding critical values is vital as they tell us whether the effect observed in the sample is likely to exist in the population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The USA Today Attp://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/front.htm) and Major League Baseball's fittp://www.majorleaguebaseball.com) websites regularly report information on individual player salaries in the American League and the National League. Go to one of these sites and find the individual salaries for your favorite team in each league. Compute the mean and the standard deviation. Is it reasonable to conclude that there is a difference in the salaries of the two teams?

A recent study focused on the number of times men and women who live alone buy takeout dinners in a month. The information is summarized below. $$\begin{array}{|lcc|}\hline \text { Statistic } & \text { Men } & \text { Women } \\\\\hline \text { Mean } & 24.51 & 22.69 \\\\\text { Standard deviation } & 4.48 & 3.86 \\\\\text { Sample size } & 35 & 40 \\\\\hline\end{array}$$ At the .01 significance level, is there a difference in the mean number of times men and women order takeout dinners in a month? What is the \(p\) -value?

The Willow Run Outlet Mall has two Gap Outlet Stores, one located on Peach Street and the other on Plum Street. The two stores are laid out differently, but both store managers claim their layout maximizes the amounts customers will purchase on impulse. A sample of 10 customers at the Peach Street store revealed they spent the following amounts more than planned: \(\$ 17.58, \$ 19.73, \$ 12.61, \$ 17.79, \$ 16.22, \$ 15.82, \$ 15.40, \$ 15.86, \$ 11.82,\) and \(\$ 15.85 .\) A sample of 14 customers at the Plum Street store revealed they spent the following amounts more than they planned: \(\$ 18.19, \$ 20.22, \$ 17.38, \$ 17.96, \$ 23.92, \$ 15.87\), \(\$ 16.47, \$ 15.96, \$ 16.79, \$ 16.74, \$ 21.40, \$ 20.57, \$ 19.79,\) and \(\$ 14.83 .\) At the .01 significance level, is there a difference in the mean amounts purchased on impulse at the two stores?

The owner of Bun 'N' Run Hamburger wishes to compare the sales per day at two locations. The mean number sold for 10 randomly selected days at the Northside site was 83.55, and the standard deviation was \(10.50 .\) For a random sample of 12 days at the Southside location, the mean number sold was 78.80 and the standard deviation was \(14.25 .\) At the .05 significance level, is there a difference in the mean number of hamburgers sold at the two locations? What is the \(p\) -value?

A computer manufacturer offers a help line that purchasers can call for help 24 hours a day 7 days a week. Clearing these calls for help in a timely fashion is important to the company's image. After telling the caller that resolution of the problem is important the caller is asked whether the issue is "software" or "hardware" related. The mean time it takes a technician to resolve a software issue is 18 minutes with a standard deviation of 4.2 minutes. This information was obtained from a sample of 35 monitored calls. For a study of 45 hardware issues, the mean time for the technician to resolve the problem was 15.5 minutes with a standard deviation of 3.9 minutes. This information was also obtained from monitored calls. At the . 05 significance level is it reasonable to conclude that it takes longer to resolve software issues? What is the \(p\) -value?

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