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NBC TV news, in a segment on the price of gasoline, reported last evening that the mean price nationwide is \(\$ 2.10\) per gallon for self-serve regular unleaded. A random sample of 35 stations in the Milwaukee, Wisconsin, area revealed that the mean price was \(\$ 2.12\) per gallon and that the standard deviation was \(\$ 0.05\) per gallon. At the .05 significance level, can we conclude that the price of gasoline is higher in the Milwaukee area? Determine the \(p\) -value.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, the price is higher in Milwaukee; p-value is 0.0089.

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses

We need to formulate the null and alternative hypotheses for the test. The null hypothesis \(H_0\) is that the mean price in Milwaukee \(\mu\) is equal to the national mean \(\mu_0 = 2.10\). The alternative hypothesis \(H_a\) is that the mean price in Milwaukee is greater than the national mean. Mathematically, this is: \( H_0: \mu = 2.10 \) and \( H_a: \mu > 2.10 \).
02

Set the Significance Level

The significance level is given as \(\alpha = 0.05\). This is the threshold for determining whether the null hypothesis should be rejected.
03

Calculate the Test Statistic

The test statistic for a sample means is calculated using the formula: \(z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{\frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}} \), where \(\bar{x}\) is the sample mean, \(\mu_0\) is the population mean, \(s\) is the sample standard deviation, and \(n\) is the sample size. Substituting the given values: \(z = \frac{2.12 - 2.10}{\frac{0.05}{\sqrt{35}}} = \frac{0.02}{0.00845} \approx 2.37\).
04

Determine the Critical Value

For a right-tailed test at \(\alpha = 0.05\), the critical \(z\)-value can be found using a standard normal distribution table or calculator. The critical value is approximately \(z = 1.645\).
05

Make a Decision

Compare the calculated test statistic \(z = 2.37\) with the critical \(z\)-value \(1.645\). Since \(2.37 > 1.645\), we reject the null hypothesis \(H_0\).
06

Calculate the p-value

The p-value is the probability that the test statistic would take a value as extreme as, or more extreme than, the observed value, under the null hypothesis. Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, the p-value corresponding to \(z = 2.37\) is approximately 0.0089.
07

Conclusion

Since the p-value \(0.0089 < 0.05\), we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the mean price of gasoline in Milwaukee is significantly higher than the national mean price at the 0.05 significance level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Significance Level
When conducting a hypothesis test, the significance level, symbolized as \( \alpha \), is a crucial component. It's essentially the threshold for how much risk of error we're willing to accept. In simpler terms, it's the probability of making a Type I error, which is rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true.
In our scenario, the significance level is set at 0.05, or 5%. This means there is a 5% risk that we might incorrectly conclude that the mean price of gasoline in Milwaukee is higher than the national average.
Setting a proper significance level is important. Lower levels mean less risk of a false positive, but also might make it harder to detect a true effect, while higher levels increase risk but may be more sensitive to detecting true differences.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a value that helps us decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. It is calculated from your data and indicates how far, in standard deviation terms, the sample mean is from the population mean.
In this exercise, we calculate the test statistic using the formula: \[z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{\frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}} \]where:
  • \( \bar{x} \) is the sample mean (\\(2.12)
  • \( \mu_0 \) is the population mean (\\)2.10)
  • \( s \) is the sample standard deviation (\$0.05)
  • \( n \) is the sample size (35)
Substituting the values gives us \( z \approx 2.37 \).
This statistic tells us how many standard deviations our sample mean is from the hypothesized mean. A larger absolute test statistic implies stronger evidence against the null hypothesis.
p-value
The p-value is a measure that helps you understand the strength of your test results. It represents the probability of obtaining a result that is at least as extreme as the observed result, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.
In the test we conducted, a p-value of 0.0089 was found corresponding to our test statistic \( z = 2.37 \).
A low p-value (typically \( \leq 0.05 \)) indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, so it is rejected. In this case, our p-value is well below the significance level of 0.05, suggesting that it is very unlikely for the Milwaukee gasoline prices to be the same as the national mean, supporting our alternative hypothesis.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, denoted as \( H_0 \), is a statement we test, typically asserting no effect or no difference. It provides a baseline against which we compare our samples.
In our example, the null hypothesis is that the mean price of gasoline in Milwaukee is equal to the national mean price, namely, \( H_0: \mu = 2.10 \).
The purpose of the hypothesis test was to determine whether there's sufficient statistical evidence to reject this statement. Once the calculated test statistic exceeded the critical value, and accompanied by a small p-value, we had evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
Alternative Hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, the alternative hypothesis, represented as \( H_a \), is what you want to prove. It is a statement indicating some type of effect or difference exists.
For our gasoline price example, the alternative hypothesis is that the average price in Milwaukee is higher than the national average: \( H_a: \mu > 2.10 \).
The whole process of hypothesis testing revolves around rejecting the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Given our test results, which showed a test statistic above the critical value and a low p-value, we were able to conclude that the price in Milwaukee isn't just slightly different, but statistically significantly higher, supporting our alternative hypothesis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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